It is indeed a joke to say that sacred shards can be acquired from hard DT.  It takes an account that already has top level champions to beat hard DT, and you need sacred shards to get to that stage.  It's an absurd rationalization, and it isn't the only one in the commentary

Agreed

I thought the interview was worthless, as they did not answer anything but with generalaztions and Murder did not do any follow up questions to get a clearer answer

Unfortunately that is the challenge with these types of "interviews".  They are heavily choreographed events where the questions are pre-set ahead of time.  The content creators that do them are heavily incentivized to not rock the boat or push the hard questions, because if they do then it means they won't get approached for future "interviews", which means lost opportunity for content.

On the same token, the community managers won't go to an interview where there are going to be questions they cannot answer.  Plarium won't authorize a session like this if it results in the business looking bad.

Essentially, it's just a big back scratching party.  The value that I personally see in these is not about the controversial questions (which we will never get a satisfactory answer), but rather the non-controversial ones (where we can actually learn about something interesting coming up).

But we did not learn anything useful IMO.

We learned they are going to change Clan Quests, ok big whoop as this is how they should have gone into the game from the start 😂

We learned the Dup system is still no where near.

We learned they think everyone should either use an auto clicker ( to not play their game, because that is what an auto clicker is ) or have 4 hours of free time each day to play and complete all tasks ( or from another thread you do not have to use all keys provided even though by not useing them all you lose resources.

We learned the company is getting greedier and greedier ( I am all for them making money , I spent on average 50$ a month but that is becoming less and less with each money grab)  that what removing the Lego shard and 5* chicken from the log in rewards is and now they want to charge double energy for stuff

What i learned from that interview was like some of the whales that post on these boards P seems to be really out of touch with its player base.

I would not agree.  Using any math, not just mine, you never get to 100% chance you will pull a legendary champ. I would HOPE to pull 12 legendaries out of 100 sacred shards. But because each opening is independent, none of your previous openings have an effect on the probability of the next opening. Saying that, because each opening is a new 6 or 12% chance, you run the risk of NEVER opening a legendary no matter how many you open, without a mercy system.

It is far too early to be doing new math though, so I'm going to get coffee before attempting any new stuff. :D

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

Read that. In particular 1.1, which illustrates the calculation you're doing for k=0 to implicitly calculate the propability of that not being the case, and 2.1 which illustrates what result you can expect from from n=12 trials. I've derived the expected value in 2 different ways for you. You were just handed the etymological meaning of what a percent is and how it applies to the situation.

The problem isn't that your calculation is incorrect, it's that your calculation is not of any relevance to what is being asked. It's limited to one specific scenario, which is to say the binary situation of not getting a legendary or getting at least one. It does not take into account how many you get, which is the variable that is of interest when dealing with a large population each doing several trials.

For example, let's do an extreme scenario just to hammer the point home. You get 1000 shards, each with a 99% chance of giving you a legendary, or one guaranteed legendary. From what you're calculating, we can conclude that there's a 99.996...% chance of getting a legendary from the shards, or a 100% chance of getting a legendary from the guaranteed legendary. Does that mean you should pick the guaranteed legendary because 100% > 99.996...%? No, of course not, because the expected value from the shards is n*p = 1000*0.99 = 990, while the expected value from the guaranteed legendary is n*p = 1*1 = 1. The expected value is relevant and shows you the overwhelming advantage of picking the shards. The probability of getting no legendary, which tells you that either option is basically the same, is not. The only possible reason for picking the guaranteed option in this scenario is if 1 successful trial is all you need and the result of not getting it would be disastrous. So if you need the antidote to the poison that's about to kill you, sure, pick that guaranteed 1 antidote vial over the extremely likely >1 vial option, but that's about it.

It isn't a large population doing several trials. In all of these cases it is just me. Or just you. Or just him. 4 shards. And we are all pulling 1 legendary champ instead of opening 4 sacred shards. Three time a year, I am getting 1 legendary instead of an approximately ~40% chance of getting one. Sure I may get two, or three or four. We all can get lucky. 

Just this past Ancient2x I pulled Jintoro, Brogni, Toragi, and Hoforees back to back to back to back on the 6 ancients I had stocked up. And since I missed Brogni due to a trip, I was pretty darn pumped. So I'm familiar personally, arithmetically, and anecdotally with a good run.

I can see the point about losing Epics. It might hurt some accounts. I could use Alure! Although we are still talking about pretty long term accounts that I would expect are doing pretty well in clan boss, so I wonder the full impact. But for me, I will continue to want the guarantee in this specific four for one trade over the four 12% chances. 

Anyhow, the Community Managers have addressed the changes in the video, and in threads here. If you haven't checked it out, please do. My opinion is just that, an opinion. Have a good day everyone!

Okay, cool, we can can use the special pleading fallacy. Let me give it a go then. Ahem.

You think 1 legendary is better than 4.

It's unlikely? Well that doesn't matter, because it will happen to that guy over there, and we've just concluded that we're not talking about the general case but specific instances. Ain't special pleading grand?

Alright. Chill out.

That is all.

I'm  with  this  guy!

I too like to cite wikipedia and then cry "fallacy" on the internet when  presented  with  math  problems  I  don't  fully  understand.  

Go ahead and find a Wikipedia article that supports your argument. I'll wait.

All the crybabies seem to be:

1.  Not even close to 270+ days, unaffected and focused on shards being most important for progression

2. F2P (I am too), thinking the game should be geared more towards them....

3. Ignoring all the free items added every month, focusing on the one handout which was slightly "nerfed" (this is debatable).  I think the daily login changes (b4 and after) need to be compared as before (shard & chicken) vs after (cleo + clan quest rewards).  I am taking the latter.  Clearly these were intertwined.

4. Degenerate gamblers :) 

5. Poor at math :) 

I  said  i  was  with  you  on  this  one!

so you take 1 gold champions  which you will get in 4 months

instead  chicken and shard

so in one year you will get 3 gold champions

instead 12 shards and 12 chicken rank 5

also you forget alot players dont spend money  in game

its very hard to progress

clan quest are stupid  how much you need xp to reach for rank 5 chicken  and get 1 chicken after how many days

If you want or dont want the chicken (crystal) i ok, but remenber not everyone think the same.

For me work more a leg.

If you dont like fight for you crystal chicken, but dont try to make me love him.

1) I have just got my first run on the new login pool (im 302 days in).

2) Yup ftp.

3) Not really, i want a chance to pull champs i want, cleo will sit in my vault.

4) Yup, but its a gambling game :)

5) Mathematics was actually my first degree (i went on to study computing as my second degree for my job) . Not getting into the 'maths' on this thread however.

Its not the end of the world at the end of the day, i get enough sacreds from cb. But the 'reasons' given by plarium for these changes have been comical to be quite honest.

Idk how work the math of some people 12% is 12/100 That is like 1/10 (little more).

 math: you will need 10 (9 whit luck) shard to get 1 leg.

so in 1 year is like 1 (2 whit luck) vs 3 (whit shard).

I understand the chicken, i understand the people who have luck or love gamble, but  use math... 

For me is better the shard.

I'm new (Day 70ish), so I'm so far away from these rewards it may not matter, but here would be my worry.

1) 4 months of login for 1 garunteed Leggo.  Fine I guess, but that's 1 champ in 4 months.  The shard was 4 champs, even if it was 4 epics or dupes.

2) With fragments, what happens once you're 75 fragments in and they change the champ?  Well, no champ for you.  What about when you're 8 months in and getting your dupe of the same champ because they didn't change the champ out?  Shards are better in both cases.

3) For F2P and newer players (even ones at 270+), the 5 star chicken is helpful. Raising a champ to 6 star takes a lot, and that's 20% less work.

Honestly, if they wanted a better way to handle this, they could offer universal shards for either a selection of champs (say, 5 leggos and 10 epics they put into a pool) where you could pick your desired champ, or have the fragments go towards any fragment champ outside of DT champs.   Or, if they wanted to give away this specific champ, then don't replace the chicken or the shard.

This feels like a short sighted solution that only helps some people now, and will backfire and hurt more people later.  But then again, we'll see if I get anywhere near those rewards.

1. Day 297!

2. I spent money early on in my account on the worst possible things, I bought silver once even. For the last few months now I've only bought monthly gem pack+the raid card(have dropped the raid card now though)

3. I rather enjoy all the free stuff and fully support plarium adding even more free stuff.

4. When I was 17 I lost my rent money on scratch lottery tickets. To remedy this I borrowed $100 and went to a casino and played poker until I won 2x my rent money and paid my friend back.

5. Math pls no

Now that my qualifications are out of the way we can all see my opinion on the matter at hand is very relevant! Jk
On the real though I only started the 271+ cycle like a week after the change happened. So I never really lost anything too it. I would prefer the shard/chicken personally though, as others stated just to help get through tournament's, and leveling champions. I have plenty of champions on my account and Cleo or another random Lego will almost certainly sit in my vault for a long long time before being considered for leveling to six stars.

Either way most of the complainers are no where near 271+ I would guess, and who knows what changes will come to your accounts and the game by the time you get there.

Disagree with the OP and you.  Why trade of the good rewards for this?  There items much less desirable they could have replaced with it.  Then both new AND vet players could enjoy them equally. 

Their excuse that it is for the new players doesn't cut it when they could have picked other items to replace and it could have been for new and vet players.