I agree with chris and dthorne. Fusions are a way  to get guaranteed legos. Open shards during the fusion tournaments, but don't expect a lego from the shard, expect 250 points in the champion chase.

i

That are all legendary champs I own. Vlad fusion, Visix daily, Arbiter quest, Yoshi fusion, Drexthar 3v3 arena basar, Rhazin fusion, Ninja free, Scyl daily, Teela shard (my first lego in the game, ranked as worst lego of all by Ash), Gamuran shard, Ruel fusion, Duchess shard, Ghostborn shard, Lyssandra shard, Zavia shard, Cleopterix daily, Aleks free, King Garog shard, Kantra shard, Yannica clan shop.

So exactly 50% of my legos are from shards. Fusions and other free stuff like daily rewards are a great way to get champs. Duchess was a lucky pull obviously, but I got here quite late, shortly before I got Cleopterix as day 450 reward, so my account progression was not bound to her.

How much I understan those chances. It should work like this:

From 100 sacred shards you get at least 12 legos - maybe more. So from 14 you should get a minimum of one lego.

And dont sell me the crap like: 

chances are average across the whole playing population

Probabilities don't work like this, unfortunately.

If you have the potential to run above the 12% chance, it means you also can run below it, too. 

So you are admiting that Plarium is lying to players ?

I'm not sure why that's what you took away from that, but no, that's not what I'm saying at all. I think there may be a bit of a disconnect in your understanding of probabilities. 

Let's assume you are opening sacred shards during a 2x, which means you have a 12% chance of opening a legendary before taking the mercy system into account, which kicks in at 12 in a row without a legendary. That does not mean you necessarily will open 1 legendary per 12 sacred shards, though you could also end up getting more than 1 legendary per 12 sacreds, too. 

12% is the likelihood of getting a legendary, not a guarantee. 

LOLLOLLOLLOL

The Darwin podium is full in this thread already... if we could only lock it all in here :)

The chance to get no lego in one shard is 88%. The chance to get no lego in 14 shards is 88%^14, roughly 16%. That's just math. The odds to get at least one lego out of 14 shards are good, but they are not 100%.

Something like "chances across average population" is indeed bs, because the chances are the same for one person or for thousands. The outcome is not the same, of course. Take a friend and play the most simple game: each one rolls a dice, the guy with the higher number wins, if you roll the same, repeat. The chances are the same for both of you, the outcome will not be the same. That is allways the case, you can see that in lottery games all around the world. One guy will be a millionaire, millions will just lose their money and the house allways wins.

Did u have mathematic in your school ?

88% + 12% = 100%  

88 epics + 12 legos is 100 in total. And Im pretty shure no one will complain if they get more legos but anything lower is not acceptable. 

If I buy 100 secred shards I want those 12 legos from them. Becouse it says so in information tab.

I put 100 sacred for a reason since a lot of people cant do math othervise. 

12% means u get 12 legos from 100 shards. if you get less than that is not 12% but less.

If u get more than that is also not 12% but more. 

Basically that means that 12% chance mentioned is a complete lie.

Even i know this is wrong 😁

Flipping a coin is a 50% chance, if you flipped a coin 100 times and it came up heads 66 and tails 44 would that mean the coin is broken?

That somebody like you is insulting other people they couldn't do math is even beyond ridiculous.

Maybe in school your math teacher forgot to tell you about decision tree and probability. You open a sacred shard, 2 possible outcomes (epic or lego) with chances of 88% and 12% each. After you opened shard no. 1, you go on and open the next shard. New decision, again 2 possible outcomes (epic or lego) with chances of 88% and 12% each.

You may repeat it over and over, but it's still not true that 100 sacred shards give 12 legendary champs. It's the outcome with the highest odds, but still it's 88% chance to get no lego for each shard you open. There is even a very small chance to get 0 legos from 100 shards (without taking the mercy system into account) it's 88%^100 = 0.00000280716. 

(Without mercy system) the chances to get a lego are 12%. For every sigle shard they are 12%. It doesn't matter if you opened 99 or fivethousand or a trillion shards before without lego. The chance for a lego is still only 12%. The odds are independent.

In favour for the player they are not really independent in Raid, the mercy system kicks in after opening 12 shards, your odds are increased from 12% to 14% at shard 13, to 16% at shard 14 and so on. So indeed there is no way to get 0 legos from 100 sacreds in Raid. Still you have no guarantee for at least 12 legos.

Get 100 apples

put 12 of those 100 apples in different basket. 

How much procent of apples did u give in other basket ?

Its Plarium that says that u get 12 legos from 100 shards not me.

Get 100 apples, 12 golden (lego) and 88 red (epic). Distribute them among 100 different baskets. Get blindfolded and take one random apple. 

Put the apple back into the basket, because chances are independent (even if you are not able to understand that). 

You have 100 apples distributed among 100 baskets again. Keep taking one apple while you are blindfolded. Put it back after you have chosen. Repeat until you have chosen 100 apples. 

Is there a guarantee for 12 golden ones?

Chances are independent 

/edit:

Its Plarium that says that u get 12 legos from 100 shards not me. 

No, they are not saying this. They say, the chance to get a lego is 12%. You are the only one saying that this will guarantee 12 legos from 100 shards, because you don't know what probability is.

I'm just going to ask you to chill. :) There's some good knowledge being dropped on you after my post and you would be wise to listen so you may better understand how probabilities work, specifically in this game. 

Also perhaps be more inclined to ask questions rather than insult people. 

No. They don't. NOBODY says that. That's just you not understanding how probabilities with replacement work.

@Skadis Revenge I was wondering why you were popping up on the alt, so I checked the bot and saw it had gotten your main. It is unbanned now. Please feel free to DM if it happens in the future.

I'm with Thorne on this one. Let's tone it down a touch, hmm?

Odds are chances, chances are not guarantees, thats why they have the mercy system. It ensures you will get a leggo after so many shards.   

I love popping shards but i know most of the time i wont get good champs, they cant all be winners. Not a big deal, theres more shards to be had for more CHANCES of getting good champs, so why worry?  I wouldnt buy a shard with someone else's money.