Hello there,

I am fairly certain not everyone is thinking that, but let's go point by point here.

1) Possible - and likely - sample size issue here. Are you doing dungeon 24s, giving yourself the best energy to gear ratio? What dungeon level are you grinding? How many runs?

2) Again, sample size issue. Before crying foul I would implore you to take a look at some information on statistics and probabilities, which you can find here: https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statistics-probability or here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

50 runs is unfortunately very little, even when it comes to a 22% chance of Savage dropping each run.

3) This is simply not true. In fact, it's very well possible for mid-game F2P to have completed Morrigaine and Maranix - and really any other fusion - IF they save their resources and utilize them properly. Sometimes that means eschewing 2x shard events in lieu of having the necessary shards for fusions. Often times this is a resource game, fusions are one of those times.

4) Looking back through recent fusions and free champions, off the top of my head:

UDK, Ukko, Morrigaine: 10 books

Helicath, Dreng: 11 books

Maranix: 12 books

I would argue Mithrala is a good include here at 8, but since Hydra might be too hard for some we can leave her out. Overall, there doesn't seem to be much of a change to me. This again comes back to being part of the resource game in that we can also choose to not fully book some champions, trying to hit on key cooldowns. We definitely should be selective on who we book as well. 

5) Ultimately, the time you're willing to invest into the game is up to you. Working on teams in different areas of content can help with time, as well. 

Other than high end PvP there is nothing in this game that can be argued is gated by money spent, and even with PvP I know multiple F2P Plat finishers. It takes time, efficient use of resources and some patience but you can absolutely excel in this game without spending much, if at all. We have multiple forum users who are proof of that, in fact. This includes moderators, as I've been low spend for the past two years and we also have Quinn who is F2P.

If you'd like to work on your account and approach to the game we'd be happy to help. 

Id like to add that while tournament top place are p2w , they would be regardless of how they handle the store ... people will tend to whale out when tournament have decent rewards , no matter what context ... 

I still manage to win some here and there , all about picking your fights and hoarding up ressources ...

Repeat after me. Saaaample siiiiiize.

I am not a Plarium sympathizer by any means, but there's a lot that I don't necessarily agree with around what you are saying:

1. You are dropping a lot more 5* and 6* rare artifacts in the dungeons, 

Check out https://i.imgur.com/wGqEI3u.jpeg which is what I have been referencing for drop rates for quite a while now.  Statistically rare items account for 55% of items dropped, even at stage 25 for dungeons.  Earlier stages can be 70%.

2. We just had a 2X Savage drop in the fire knights castle, I played 50 Multi plays and got 0 pieces of Savage gear.

Putting aside sample bias, I suspect that you have your runs filtered to automatically sell 5 star or lower gear.  If this is the case, it would be possible that you are getting a lot of Savage gear, but are just auto-selling it.

Also note that 2x Savage doesn't really equate to twice as much savage gear.  It just means that the savage chance itself will increase by 2x.  Without any event, each gear for Fire Knight has a 1 in 9 chance of dropping.  With the 2x Savage event, then Savage appears twice, so it means each piece of gear set has a 1 in 10 chance, while Savage has a 2 in 10 chance (or 1 in 5, or 20%).  It is still very much possible not to get any Savage gear

3. The last two fusion events were horrible at best. Only End game players can fuse the hero.

The Morrigaine one was pretty bad in the sense that if you missed a single rare you had to miss the entire fusion, but resource wise, I believe that the fusion events have been consistent with previous ones.  You need to save up and prepare for fusion events, otherwise you won't be able to do them.  Hell Hades (a Raid content creator) has completed a few with a new account so it is definitely possible for non-end game players to do these if they prepare for it.

4. It now takes a lot more books to upgrade an Epic or Legendary. 

Not really sure where this is coming from and keen to get some examples.  Morrigaine (the most recent one) needs 10 Legendary books to finish, which I think is statistically quite low or average.  Orn (one of the new epics) requires 13 books, but Duedan requires 10.  The average I feel is around 10 to 12 for champions, and usually the new ones are around that

5. This is a game, Not a job or a lifestyle, While I like to play the game, I don't have 10 hours a day to complete the Tournaments and/or Events. 

I think this is probably the biggest challenge that you have.  As much as this game loves to think that it is, it is not a PvP game.  Pretty much everything that you are doing in the game is at your own pace, so you need to start approaching the game at that mindset.  

You should be picking your battles and targeting an area for improvement, and not spending 10 hours a day every day in the game to get all of the content done.  You don't need to do every event and tournament.  You don't even need to do all of the daily quests and advanced quests.  I personally don't.  I just focus on the ones that matter to me.

Edit: I don't even view the tournaments as PvP, as I expect that I will never be able to compete with the top players due to how much they spend.  Tournaments and Events are for milestone rewards for me.  If they are interesting, then I will build a team for them.  If not, then I will skip

Just to elaborate my own point, and expand on what rose said. 2x savage definitely *does* mean twice as much savage gear - but to truly see that, you need a much bigger sample size to smooth out the noise. I highly recommend https://seeing-theory.brown.edu/

Just one remark from my side to the sample size:

I know that you know your math. With an overall probability of 0.0004 % of getting zero Savage item by running 50 runs I consider Rose's explanation to be far more likely.

Drop rate goes from 11% to 20%, so almost twice, yeah.

But even though 20% isn't very high, 50 runs in a row without any drops would be an extremely rare occurrence. Now, 50 runs without any 6* drops (and autosell for the rest) sounds way more likely.

So I did m<y own 50 runs on spider to see how many Sylvan accessories I would be able to secure.

I did run on level 25 Spider.

The expectations derived from a normal distribution would be to get about 10 Sylvan items. I got 3 items...

I did run another 50 (split into 20 and 30 multi battles, pictures below) runs. My expectation would be to get around 10 items....20 overall. To my astonishment (and shame), I had 3 fail runs. Therefor I added additional runs to make it to a valid sample size of 100

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With a total sample size of 100, I got 7 Sylvan accessories 

Is this possible? Yes

Is this probable? No.

As we have now 2 people reporting this difference or bad luck, how are the experiences of the other players?

P.S.: I know it is not fully documented....it came into mind to make screen shots after the first half of the runs and somehow the table disappears if you return from Snipping tool to the Raid screen...my fault

That is an interesting site. 

I used the dice (even if it does not show up the distribution of the Sylvan accessories)

I did run them multiple times to see at which time a representative sample size has been reached. Please have a look at the screen shots below.

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I think, we can agree that after a sample size of 100, there is no big variation in the average result anymore. 

Do you agree from the slides above, that 100 samples would show an accurate distribution (in most cases)?

Hmm, I might have misunderstood but I thought we were talking about 2 different things.

The first is what the OP is referring to, which is 2x Savage for Fire Knight.  This should be a 20% chance during the event.

The second is a 2x Sylvan accessories for Spider, which by my calculation should be an 12.5% chance.  I came to this because there are 15 factions, so normally there would be a 1/15th chance of getting any particular faction.  With 2x Sylvan though, it means that there are now 16 factions available to drop, with 2 of them being the Sylvan faction.  This means that all other factions have a 1/16th chance of dropping (or 6.25%), and Sylvan having a 2/16 chance, of 1/8, or 12.5%.

As a result, with 100 runs you should technically get 12 Sylvan accessories, along with about 6 of every other faction, though to be transparent you do also have a chance of getting an ancient shard, which is a 5% chance at 100 runs.  I couldn't see an Ancient shard in your results above but I could also only see 43 items in the batch of 50, though you might have been missing some screenshots.

That said, 7 is technically less than the standard statistics, but I'd be interested in seeing more of this as 100 is still much too low to gain anything conclusive.  Happy to throw in a bunch of runs tomorrow myself when I get up.

Hi all,

 The thing is of all the online games this one is very aggressive with it's buy this, buy that pushes. It has been that way since I started playing, to my mind it is no better or worse than it has always been. The choice is personal to buy or not. F2P is always going to be at a disadvantage over paying customers, how can it be otherwise. If you let it the game will swallow up a large portion of your day and time, it is for entertainment a way of unwinding, if you find it getting out of control. My advice is cease playing. 10 hours a day is extreme, perhaps set aside an hour a day, which is still a lot of time to play a single game.

The Moderators in here are also what's a wrong with this Game. According to them Plarium isn't Greedy and gives away a lot for free and this Game is not Pay to win. Of course you have all the same possibilities with f2p. It's by the way one of the few games where i see mods constantly lashing out harsh to players with feedback, which you can't report.

You are correct that I mistook the numbers from Savage and Sylvan. 

While the numbers seem like I havew a very bad streak of rewards, they are not as intense as I described them. 

To correct this, I should have gotten 13-14 artefacts if the outcome would meet the expectations, not the 20 I listed in the first place. Getting 7 instead of 13 is stil very low...but not as gross.

Aehm...there are 15 active factions right now, so I expected 13 instead of the 12 listed by you

Actually the moderators here are very good and accept different opinions. But that is my experience.

I accept that I can make mistakes and that I am wrong sometimes. With a serious discussion you sometimes see where you are mistaken and I personally, while being very critic about some topics, never experienced what you would describe as lashing out harshly.

Coming from a gambling background: 

Running roughly 50% below - especially coupled with a low % probability in the first place, which frankly 13.3% is - is extremely common. The lower our edge/probability usually leads to needing a bigger volume/sample to realize our expectation.

I think it is a fallacy to expect 13-14 when it is a probability, rather than a guarantee. 

Yes, I have a slightly different perspective, coming from an engineering background. As testing new products on testing devices also deals a lot with statistics and probabilities, I admit that we most likely have a results range, which is not normally distributed but tends to be in a more gaussian distribution. This tends to influence my expectations around the outcome of 13-14, meaning I start from the 13-14 and expect the variations to be centered on this value.

Hi there! 

You should report me or any Moderators participating in discussions, sharing their personal experiences as F2P players, starting new accounts to test player problems, or using that personal experience to refute assertions that the game is only Pay2Win.

You can do so by opening a Support Ticket. Here are the instructions, taken from the Forum ToS: If you have questions regarding the actions of Community Administrators and Moderators, please submit a ticket via plrm.me/Plarium_Support.

Remember to include the following screenshots of my harsh misdeeds from our previous discussion with your report:

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Welcome back Zed! Nice to see you haven't quit the forums, even if you were gonna quit the game over not getting UDK.

Coming from an Exp Biochem background, I would caution anyone looking at single trials (which your 50 or even 100 runs would be) to be extremely wary of attempting to draw conclusions from results that fall within a few standard deviations away from expected. Unless you're gonna drop 5,000 runs, the sample size is fairly abyssmal. 

Small sample sizes can cause large problems in spite of their small size. For example, I did a single spider run to test a Dark Elves team and got a Sylvan amulet.  My results would show there is a 100% chance to get Sylvan accessories, and specifically amulets, from this event. Of course, we all know this is not true. :)

Don't forget that like the 10x for summons, a 2x on gear just adds a single additional chance to get that class of item into the loot pool. So where before there with 15 factions with a 1 in 15 chance to get a Sylvan Accessory, during this event there are, in effect, 2 Sylvan Factions. So now you have 16 effective factions, with a 2 in 16 chance of getting a Sylvan accessory. 

I think people with little experience and high expectations is what's wrong. I think Plarium IS greedy, but they also give a lot of stuff for free and this game is not pay to win, except in high level arena....you can ask f2p players here. 

Just to get context in that case: Harle what are you trying to say here? Screenshotting a thread ? Why lol.