It's just  mathematics, (or it should be) nothing else.

Over an an adequate period of time, so long as the chance approximates to 85%, it doesn't matter, except to the player,where in the sequence success happens.  

Like tossing a coin,with a fair balance, it's always 50% chance. 

The coin doesn't know, if,when, or how many times it's done it before. 

Well ,, I added up the number of hero item upgrades that I have done and got 116 in total but most of those were done at 90% or 100% chances of success with almost no failures. Very few upgrades were risked  at 85% and I am guessing around a third of those failed.

Hi WDYWTNTF, I am sorry that the gear upgrading functionality does not satisfy you. It was intended to make the game experience more exciting, but we appreciate all feedback you might have, it helps us to get better🙏

Your comment has been forwarded to the developers for the further consideration. Stay tuned😇

As I wrote,I don't think that you can get higher than 85%.

I thought it odd too, that people seem to be ok with 90%  working as it should, but not the 85%.

It would not seem to be logical that one functions correctly, and the other doesn't. but maybe this can happen.

The one good thing about you re raising the question and me trying to answer it is, that it has been referred to the tech team, so keep your fingers crossed.

Last points in connection  with this theme.

I remember some other thread connected with this issue, or similar topic, where someone more knowlegeable with the mathematics,had to  try explain the difference between the various ideas of doing something and not doing something after trying many times.

I used to play a game, where the successful outcome was only a 20% chance,and players would say, 'I have done it 20 times, I should have been successful now.'

Which again ties in with what Blackadder wrote.

If 100 different players tried the upgrade and reported a failure would they come up with it doesnt  work at all?

 and this time a 90% chance of success to level 5 failed and an 85% chance of success to level  6 succeeded  - russian roulette?

another two goes at 85% chance of success, one did work and one didn't. It didn't cost me a long boat but it does take a lot of other hard to replace  items.

 (looking more like a 50% chance of success).

Agreed ..It is pure and simple greed on the part of plarium.I had 2 successive failures at level 8->9 on Ubba gear.It is frustrating cause you have to wait for the chiefs to re-appear and waste time just to get upgraded.There is no exciting dimension to those.Lets call it what it is - greed.

Well I believe 85% chance of success means 4 out of every 5 attempts should work. 

  ( Just 2 of my last 5 attempts at 85% succeeded, despite using max amounts allowed of Helheim fire. )

  I guess if Plarium advertised your chance of success at less than 60% a lot of people would not bother spending extra on coffers and hero energy trying to upgrade?

 Look, I am still playing the game, but I am not playing their game.(Well maybe a little.)

Which is all about selling you a pup without you realising it's a pup,and then you buying another, even if you found out you were sold a pup before.

I wish I understood the mathematics better myself and could explain it as well to those who fall for the sales pitch, not that in many cases it would make a blind bit of difference.

 The figures quoted in the upgrade section 85% here, seems a good bet, but is it? There is no guarantee of the preferred outcome.

Returning to the flipping a coin, just as in the upgrade ,each flip is independant of the last one, because to the coin there is no last one,and there is no last one to the upgrade either, the chance of pass or fail remains the same each time.

With the coin its heads or tails 50% chance, but if you want heads and keep getting tails, it doesn't mean the next time you will get the desired outcome, and if you don't ,that doesn't mean the coin's faulty or the quoted chance is wrong.

Also, I believe you are chasing miniscules of amount of benefit, there's a post about it somewhere on the forum which thought I did have saved, but can't find it.

You have some gear it's easy enough for you to test yourself, as I did,am doing, in connection to my post  which turned into a 'rant' about old ideas in general, but in particular refernce to attacking invaders.

I fell for the 'must get all the best legendary hero experience gear' which I eventually did.

Recently I tested what each piece gives individually and then by adding one piece at a time,by the time you get to the last piece the advantage is much reduced and the total given, is no where  near the sum of the individual pieces.

I can't  believe it is any different for the other gear. 

They know thhe carrot works, and they know there are players out there,rich enough to buy or acquire quickly anything they add in an upgrade.

The chance of failing sometimes, adds a bit of spice (game balance?)and the coffers filling.

I guess I am not as cynical as you. I don't believe Plarium's aim is to sell you a pup (although I did enjoy reading that). I believe they want to sell you a carrot that you enjoy, ..... so that you want to buy more carrots.

 Likewise I don't believe 85% chance of success = 85% chance of failure which I think is what you are suggesting  .... although my recent failures would suggest that is true of whatever logarithim Plarium is using for these upgrades. 

 (80% chance of success means that 4 out 5 attempts, or 800 of 1,000 attempts should be successful, .... unless Plarium is suggesting that you MAY have an  80% chance of success in which case anything can happen).

I wonder if Ivar can tell us how the Plarium logarithm works. I.e is it based on the number of times each separate item is upgraded. Or are all the items per  hero /shaman set amalgamated, or is it simply the number of upgrades each player attempts, irrespective of which set, for the hero and the shaman. 

We do already know that the odds of failure increase the higher the upgrade level attempted.

I would like to suggest that if the game advises that by contributing x amount of helheim fire you will have 85% chance of success then the game should be counting each attempt so that alternate 5th or 6th attempts  fail. Quite simple really !

 And those that want to keep count can simply ugrade their less useful (i.e. less frequently used item ) on the 5th or 6th attempt. 

(Are you saying that to get a success rate of 8 out of 10 attempts you have to repeat the exercise three times to get to get just one successful 8 out of 10 attempts ? That really sucks, unless the other two excercises give 10 out of 10 and 7 out of 10 and that does not seem to be happening either).

My alt has two more items to raise to level 6, both with 85% chance of success. I should invite people to bet on the odds - i.e. on both succeed, or both fail, or one of each. 

( I think most would select one of each = 50%, despite the string  of failures suggesting the next 4 should succeed, and ignoring Ivar's suggestion that the system resets each time so it can fail every time indefinately).

Surprise surprise: both attempts to raise my alts legendary gear with 85% chance of success to level 6 were successful. 

 I see palace levels below 32 can now win runic coins again. Maybe this gear upgrade % has been fixed too? 🙂

Thanks for doing that, but I do not understand what you have sent, because I do not know that I was complaining about the upgrading functionality, as I was only trying to write an answer to someone that was actually complaining..

However of course I will be interested to know what happens.

Why do you make invader and uber drops so low quality for legendary special equipment? This disparity allows a vacuum where greedy players dominant the game with their higher level equipment. In other words, it takes me and thousands of others forever to get and make legendary material.

Perhaps so, it is possible that just like in exams, there is a tendancy to answer the question desired, misread ,misunderstood, rather than the one really asked.

Perhaps the clans and players that are monitoring such,should be clearer,and say exactly what you did, rather than dressing up the facts in a story.

I am not able to analyse the program for accuracy, you would need a specialist for that, and only say what I did.

Sometimes people think, there must be something wrong, 'I should have got it by now ,but haven't.'

I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the data that has been either observed, or suggested,but would say ,is the sample used large to come up with a 25% success rate rather than the 85% suggested?

The other point I was hinting at, if not actually saying so  before, was that you could get a run of 100 failures, but as long this was balanced out over a bigger run, then it would still pass muster.

When dismantling dragon rings I observed long sequences of either Diamonds or Elixir other times more random, perhaps the way computers churn out results is misleading.

Lottery organizers have to prove that their draws are fair and unbiased over the long haul.

The owners are  the only ones that  have access to the data and we have to rely on them checking  and disclosing accurately. 

another string of failures - this last one at a supposed 90% success rate 🙁

They changed it so you do not have to be level 32 anymore, and I always try to have 1 mil in reserve for the new season just in case. :-)

I see a lot of  post editing .

Are you saying you got big enough to compete for coins,or they changed it?

The ability to buy 1.5 million, only works if they have the offer and more importantly if you hace a million to start with, not everyone will have. 

For the time being they have at least one reinvigorated player.