Yup :) I can share what I know about it. The chance of an equipment upgrade is determined automatically according to the theory of probability, previous attempts to upgrade are not taken into account by the system in the calculation. If you have tried to upgrade a piece of equipment several times, this does not mean that the chance of success increases. Each time the system performs the calculations again. 

Well .. I tried another two 85% chance of success upgrades to level 6, one worked and one failed ...... hardly an 85% success rate !

   That is now 3 successes and 4 failures in the last 7 attempts which by my reasoning is less than 50% success rate.

One difference is that the success was with an item the hero was wearing.

Ivar - can you please check with your programmers that the logarithim used does actually guarantee an 85% success rate as advertised ? Resetting to a 50:50 chance each time is not a guaranteed 85% success rate.

You may be correct about me being more cynical than yourself.

However cynicism doesn't really have anything to do with facts, or opinion, does it?

Something which I had missed  doing so before, referencing your 

"I guess if Plarium advertised your chance of success at less than 60% a lot of people would not bother spending extra on coffers and hero energy trying to upgrade? 

Of course players might not ,wouldn't, and the game won't say this, even if they know it's true,they leave things vague, leaving players to come up with believing what they want to believe,as you wrote here. 

"Well I believe 85% chance of success means 4 out of every 5 attempts should work."    

What does 85% really mean? As I tried to say  before elsewhere, same as with the promise of the 35% boost,35% of what? What is the exact effect it gives? 

Hence the reference to buying a pup. 

I was going to try and explain again by returning to the flipping a coin scenario, but I see lots of movement on this topic, and John referencing another way of looking at events,something similar to which was written before on the forum on this kind of issue.

Surprised and relieved that Ivar answered you, and wrote in agreement with what I have been trying to put across in my posts, that each attempt is independant from any other attempt, and that repeating attempts doesn't mean you will be succesful as you had described and you thought you  would should be.

and another two attempts to upgrade to level 6  ... (I have been storing them up hoping the odds would improve lol ) ... a 95% chance of success worked,  and an 85% chance of success also worked, so now my efforts at 85% = 4 out of 8 attempts successful = 50% despite what John said.

John: presumably that 30.30% is what you get  if you don't have a programming logarithim pushing the results to an advertised  80 - 85% success rate?

(If the program already counts simultaneously  how many times you kill each type of invader,  ghost and the number of troops, the number of times you get blocked  and change names etc, for each achievement, it should be able to count how many times your attempted gear upgrades are successfull ?)

I wish you still could edit out part of a quote.

I think you are still missing the point.

I believe John is saying that the mathematics of an 80% chance  gives an actual 30% favourable outcome with 8 out of 10 attempts, which might be more in keeping with players findings.

Yes the game is counting certain items, because it needs to.

It does not need to count attempts of upgrading.

It is not a cumulative thing.

Each time you try it's like you never did it before, it's always an 85%chance, you either succede or fail at this rate.

As I said the game text is vague, it lets you believe what  you want to believe.

So you were right with your  'if they told is it was less likely we wouldnt attempt it'

I would like to suggest that if the game advises that by contributing x amount of helheim fire you will have 85% chance of success then the game should be counting each attempt so that alternate 5th or 6th attempts  fail. Quite simple really !

 And those that want to keep count can simply ugrade their less useful (i.e. less frequently used item ) on the 5th or 6th attempt. 

(Are you saying that to get a success rate of 8 out of 10 attempts you have to repeat the exercise three times to get to get just one successful 8 out of 10 attempts ? That really sucks, unless the other two excercises give 10 out of 10 and 7 out of 10 and that does not seem to be happening either).

My alt has two more items to raise to level 6, both with 85% chance of success. I should invite people to bet on the odds - i.e. on both succeed, or both fail, or one of each. 

( I think most would select one of each = 50%, despite the string  of failures suggesting the next 4 should succeed, and ignoring Ivar's suggestion that the system resets each time so it can fail every time indefinately).

No, you are still not getting it.

You could keep on doing it and still fail and  you would still be having an 85% chance each time, it  would just something statistically unusual, but in the bounds of possibility, and leaving you being very unlucky.

I understand you and many others think the whole thing is bad and doesn't work like you think it should

If they guaranteed you suceeded 8 times out of 10  though it might be welcome that wouldnt be 

correct.

John: I was suggesting 5 successes in a row per 1 failure !

Surprise surprise: both attempts to raise my alts legendary gear with 85% chance of success to level 6 were successful. 

 I see palace levels below 32 can now win runic coins again. Maybe this gear upgrade % has been fixed too? 🙂

My alt did an item upgrade to lv 7   with 80% chance of success, and was successful 🙂

several gear upgrades later and they have all been successful including one at 80% and two at 85% chance of success. Things are looking up ! 🙂

Of course they haven't said they have done anything to the parameters, so you may just be having a run of good luck to equal out the bad, ...... unless!............

It would be interesting to know if any one else has noticed an improvement in their success rate.

After a string of several successful gear upgrades including quite a few at 85% I had my first failure since my last post 14/6 so no complaints.  That success, combined with now being able to compete for runic coins, and the chance to buy 1.5 million coins again (that option disappeared for awhile), I have to admit I am enjoying, and spending more time, in the game lately. Thank you Plarium

I see a lot of  post editing .

Are you saying you got big enough to compete for coins,or they changed it?

The ability to buy 1.5 million, only works if they have the offer and more importantly if you hace a million to start with, not everyone will have. 

For the time being they have at least one reinvigorated player.

They changed it so you do not have to be level 32 anymore, and I always try to have 1 mil in reserve for the new season just in case. :-)

another string of failures - this last one at a supposed 90% success rate 🙁

Why do you make invader and uber drops so low quality for legendary special equipment? This disparity allows a vacuum where greedy players dominant the game with their higher level equipment. In other words, it takes me and thousands of others forever to get and make legendary material.