Surprise surprise: both attempts to raise my alts legendary gear with 85% chance of success to level 6 were successful.
I see palace levels below 32 can now win runic coins again. Maybe this gear upgrade % has been fixed too? 🙂
My alt did an item upgrade to lv 7 with 80% chance of success, and was successful 🙂
Why do you make invader and uber drops so low quality for legendary special equipment? This disparity allows a vacuum where greedy players dominant the game with their higher level equipment. In other words, it takes me and thousands of others forever to get and make legendary material.
another string of failures - this last one at a supposed 90% success rate 🙁
They changed it so you do not have to be level 32 anymore, and I always try to have 1 mil in reserve for the new season just in case. :-)
I see a lot of post editing .
Are you saying you got big enough to compete for coins,or they changed it?
The ability to buy 1.5 million, only works if they have the offer and more importantly if you hace a million to start with, not everyone will have.
For the time being they have at least one reinvigorated player.
After a string of several successful gear upgrades including quite a few at 85% I had my first failure since my last post 14/6 so no complaints. That success, combined with now being able to compete for runic coins, and the chance to buy 1.5 million coins again (that option disappeared for awhile), I have to admit I am enjoying, and spending more time, in the game lately. Thank you Plarium
It would be interesting to know if any one else has noticed an improvement in their success rate.
Of course they haven't said they have done anything to the parameters, so you may just be having a run of good luck to equal out the bad, ...... unless!............
several gear upgrades later and they have all been successful including one at 80% and two at 85% chance of success. Things are looking up ! 🙂
John: I was suggesting 5 successes in a row per 1 failure !
No, you are still not getting it.
You could keep on doing it and still fail and you would still be having an 85% chance each time, it would just something statistically unusual, but in the bounds of possibility, and leaving you being very unlucky.
I understand you and many others think the whole thing is bad and doesn't work like you think it should
If they guaranteed you suceeded 8 times out of 10 though it might be welcome that wouldnt be
correct.
I wish you still could edit out part of a quote.
I think you are still missing the point.
I believe John is saying that the mathematics of an 80% chance gives an actual 30% favourable outcome with 8 out of 10 attempts, which might be more in keeping with players findings.
Yes the game is counting certain items, because it needs to.
It does not need to count attempts of upgrading.
It is not a cumulative thing.
Each time you try it's like you never did it before, it's always an 85%chance, you either succede or fail at this rate.
As I said the game text is vague, it lets you believe what you want to believe.
So you were right with your 'if they told is it was less likely we wouldnt attempt it'
and another two attempts to upgrade to level 6 ... (I have been storing them up hoping the odds would improve lol ) ... a 95% chance of success worked, and an 85% chance of success also worked, so now my efforts at 85% = 4 out of 8 attempts successful = 50% despite what John said.
John: presumably that 30.30% is what you get if you don't have a programming logarithim pushing the results to an advertised 80 - 85% success rate?
(If the program already counts simultaneously how many times you kill each type of invader, ghost and the number of troops, the number of times you get blocked and change names etc, for each achievement, it should be able to count how many times your attempted gear upgrades are successfull ?)
You may be correct about me being more cynical than yourself.
However cynicism doesn't really have anything to do with facts, or opinion, does it?
Something which I had missed doing so before, referencing your
"I guess if Plarium advertised your chance of success at less than 60% a lot of people would not bother spending extra on coffers and hero energy trying to upgrade?
Of course players might not ,wouldn't, and the game won't say this, even if they know it's true,they leave things vague, leaving players to come up with believing what they want to believe,as you wrote here.
"Well I believe 85% chance of success means 4 out of every 5 attempts should work."
What does 85% really mean? As I tried to say before elsewhere, same as with the promise of the 35% boost,35% of what? What is the exact effect it gives?
Hence the reference to buying a pup.
I was going to try and explain again by returning to the flipping a coin scenario, but I see lots of movement on this topic, and John referencing another way of looking at events,something similar to which was written before on the forum on this kind of issue.
Surprised and relieved that Ivar answered you, and wrote in agreement with what I have been trying to put across in my posts, that each attempt is independant from any other attempt, and that repeating attempts doesn't mean you will be succesful as you had described and you thought you would should be.
Ivar - can you please check with your programmers that the logarithim used does actually guarantee an 85% success rate as advertised ? Resetting to a 50:50 chance each time is not a guaranteed 85% success rate.
Well .. I tried another two 85% chance of success upgrades to level 6, one worked and one failed ...... hardly an 85% success rate !
That is now 3 successes and 4 failures in the last 7 attempts which by my reasoning is less than 50% success rate.
One difference is that the success was with an item the hero was wearing.
I wonder if Ivar can tell us how the Plarium logarithm works. I.e is it based on the number of times each separate item is upgraded. Or are all the items per hero /shaman set amalgamated, or is it simply the number of upgrades each player attempts, irrespective of which set, for the hero and the shaman.
We do already know that the odds of failure increase the higher the upgrade level attempted.
Yup :) I can share what I know about it. The chance of an equipment upgrade is determined automatically according to the theory of probability, previous attempts to upgrade are not taken into account by the system in the calculation. If you have tried to upgrade a piece of equipment several times, this does not mean that the chance of success increases. Each time the system performs the calculations again.
Agreed ..It is pure and simple greed on the part of plarium.I had 2 successive failures at level 8->9 on Ubba gear.It is frustrating cause you have to wait for the chiefs to re-appear and waste time just to get upgraded.There is no exciting dimension to those.Lets call it what it is - greed.
Propmted by an official post about upgrading gems, and this ongoing thread, I have looked for informatiion within my game.
There seems to be little information about upgrading gems in the gem store, and can still find nothing about upgrading equipment within my game, but perhaps at least in the latter,it's because I have nothing to upgrade at all, whereas I do have a few gems.
Perhaps the informatiion I did recall was only what I had read here.
The comment there from Griffin says this
"i do not like probabilitys that can be influenced. 95/100 is a 1 on every 20 chance things go wrong.
I'm certain the player is never gonna have 19 succesfull upgrades aginst 1 failed."
Now to my points.
So having read this article it seems it gets even worse than the 85% rate mentioned here.
Also you seem to be still caught up on two issues.
#1 It's not working as it should because I'm not getting the upgrade at the rate indicated based on a small sample.
#2 You have fallen for the I have to do this and quickly for the fantastic bonuses ,otherwise it is a disaster.
The upgrades %'s do seem enormous, but like in the rest of the game what is the base ?
'X% of 0 is still 0, and not very much if the number is small.
Though I see the frustration and road block to more progress,the difference between success and failure seems to be 6%.
Also understand the cost in time and hero energy, but how else are they going to keep you needing, and spending, to go after invaders and ghosts?
