Than you seem o sleep at ur university as well.
Gamblers Fallacy means, when u have used 318 blue shards u think the 319th MUST be a legendary cuz now the percentage has increasd so much that there cant be another result.
But what we have here is the Substantivelaw of large numbers. If u repeat a random experiment often enough u will reach a quote, in this case 16% epics, 1% legendaries.
Or in a more simple example for you: If u are throwing a coin often enough, u will reach a quote close to 50% for heads/tails.
319 repeats are a lot of repeats, but the resultquote is far away from the promised quote of plarium.
But hey dont worry, at least u are able to google so u can try on faking that u r smart in ur own rude trolling way! ;)
Than you seem o sleep at ur university as well.
Gamblers Fallacy means, when u have used 318 blue shards u think the 319th MUST be a legendary cuz now the percentage has increasd so much that there cant be another result.
But what we have here is the Substantivelaw of large numbers. If u repeat a random experiment often enough u will reach a quote, in this case 16% epics, 1% legendaries.
Or in a more simple example for you: If u are throwing a coin often enough, u will reach a quote close to 50% for heads/tails.
319 repeats are a lot of repeats, but the resultquote is far away from the promised quote of plarium.
But hey dont worry, at least u are able to google so u can try on faking that u r smart in ur own rude trolling way! ;)
Aaaah but at the scale of statistics, 300 is such a low number, and you're assuming that 300 count is calculated all on your account instead of the whole population of players.
Say it does give players a legendary in every 100th pulls, you think that 100th pull will be calculated per account? No the calculation is for the whole population, thus, the spread!
Say there's 100 people like you, each pulling 300 shards. That's 30,000 pulls, probability says there's a chance of 300 legendaries in that whole pull, my question do you really honestly think the spread of that 300 legendaries are spread equally among those 100 players?
So yes, GAMBLER'S FALLACY, because you think that you pulled enough shards, you think you deserve a legendary (or 3), while in reality the probability is not being counted per account, but as the whole population.
That's why there's people who got 2 legendaries in as less as 10 pulls, while others can pull hundreds of times without getting a single legendary.
As long as the whole population pull shows around 1% legendary population, the system doesn't care about the spread of the legendary.
My epic pull came pretty close to stated rate in the 100 or so shards my son and is pulled. What is more concerning to me is the rate of dupe crappy rares he and i saw..almost feels like the game is saying we will gibe you double epic/legenday % but the pool of rares is going to be limited to the crappy ones...
319 samples at 1% probability is still a 4% chance of a 0 outcome. 1 in 25 isn't that unlikely. However, it shouldn't be possible to open more than 220 without getting a legendary since the mercy system would at that point make a legendary a certainty on the next ancient shard.
Oooh yeah, I forgot about the mercy system...
My epic pull came pretty close to stated rate in the 100 or so shards my son and is pulled. What is more concerning to me is the rate of dupe crappy rares he and i saw..almost feels like the game is saying we will gibe you double epic/legenday % but the pool of rares is going to be limited to the crappy ones...
I have talked about this 6 months ago,
TLDR it's called the Birthday Paradox.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem
Edit: I've looked up my calculation, if you have 10 unique legendary your chance of getting a dupe lego is 55%, and it will shoot up to 99% once you have 28 unique legendary
It is almost impossible for you to open 319 Ancients with out a Leggo.
Only 3 outcomes here:
1 - You are lying thru your teeth and didn't open 319 Ancients.
2 - You did get Leggo, but it was a Dupe or a Leggo you was unhappy about which caused you to lie in your Forum Title.
3 - You are experiencing an unknown bug at which point you should contact Support so they can reimburse you.
The Game has a Shard Mercy System.
It changes the rates to 100% at a certain point.
In other words, you are guaranteed a Leggo once you reach a certain shard pull amount.
The amount is 220 Ancient Shards.
If you are Lucky, You get Leggo in 1 Shard.
If you are Unlucky, You get Leggo in 220 Shard.
You cant go beyond that amount with out a Leggo.
- The Leggo can be Dupe.
- The Leggo can be Leggo you dont want.
- The Leggo can be Bad Leggo
But a Leggo has to be given.
It is almost impossible for you to open 319 Ancients with out a Leggo.
Only 3 outcomes here:
1 - You are lying thru your teeth and didn't open 319 Ancients.
2 - You did get Leggo, but it was a Dupe or a Leggo you was unhappy about which caused you to lie in your Forum Title.
3 - You are experiencing an unknown bug at which point you should contact Support so they can reimburse you.
The Game has a Shard Mercy System.
It changes the rates to 100% at a certain point.
In other words, you are guaranteed a Leggo once you reach a certain shard pull amount.
The amount is 220 Ancient Shards.
If you are Lucky, You get Leggo in 1 Shard.
If you are Unlucky, You get Leggo in 220 Shard.
You cant go beyond that amount with out a Leggo.
- The Leggo can be Dupe.
- The Leggo can be Leggo you dont want.
- The Leggo can be Bad Leggo
But a Leggo has to be given.
Actually there is a 4th explanation, which would also explain why there is not such a simple thing (30 mins work maximum) implemented like a counter for the mercy system.
I don't understand what you mean.
Well,
out of 3 possible solutions you offer,
2 of them are coming down to accusing the other user of lying
1 of them is shifting the blame to an unknown bug
at the same time you are just taking at face value that the mercy system is actually in place.
If it is in place, why does Plarium not add a counter, which is 30 minutes work for a developper and proves once ad forever that the mercy system is working?
What evidence do you have that CrazyMaria is lying and Plarium is telling the truth?
If we get down to boolean logic, we have the following options
1.) A & B are both telling the truth -> not possible here as they are contradicting themselves (only exception would be a bug like you mentioned, but that would also mean pity system is not working)
2.) A is telling the truth, B is not -> possible that there have been a leggo or less than 319 shards pulled
3.) B is telling the truth, A is not -> possible that there is no pity system
4.) Both are not telling the truth -> possible that there is no pity system and less than 200 shards have been pulled.
From these 4 options, I would rate 1 as not possible.
You do entirely ignore option 3.
Got any good epics? Some might be eve more usefull for you if you need a specific role. Booking them up is cheaper/easier etc
Also, you cant pull 319 ancients without a legendary. The mercy system prevents that. If it somehow failed for you, then you should contact plarium and report a bug
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqydLWxcH3A&ab_channel=ChoflyElite
Well,
out of 3 possible solutions you offer,
2 of them are coming down to accusing the other user of lying
1 of them is shifting the blame to an unknown bug
at the same time you are just taking at face value that the mercy system is actually in place.
If it is in place, why does Plarium not add a counter, which is 30 minutes work for a developper and proves once ad forever that the mercy system is working?
What evidence do you have that CrazyMaria is lying and Plarium is telling the truth?
If we get down to boolean logic, we have the following options
1.) A & B are both telling the truth -> not possible here as they are contradicting themselves (only exception would be a bug like you mentioned, but that would also mean pity system is not working)
2.) A is telling the truth, B is not -> possible that there have been a leggo or less than 319 shards pulled
3.) B is telling the truth, A is not -> possible that there is no pity system
4.) Both are not telling the truth -> possible that there is no pity system and less than 200 shards have been pulled.
From these 4 options, I would rate 1 as not possible.
You do entirely ignore option 3.
Nerds found the Mercy System by Data mining the game behind the scenes.
Than players confronted the game by asking them about the Mercy System.
Than the game decided it was in their best interest to admit a Mercy System existed.
Than the game decided to add the Mercy System to the Portal so people could see it.
How do I know Mercy System is in place?
Because I have triggered it.
And I can say with confidence the Mercy System in this game is garbage compared to all other cacha games I ever played.
I agree with you, that the mercy system is garbage...it should be at half the number of shards pulled.
Getting a leggo between 200 and 220 does not prove a system like this existence so it is strong evidence.
That stil leaves the question....Why no counter?
And having some code within a program does not mean this code is actually used....just saying... I know that this is kind of conspiracy...but to my own numbers, I also pulled once until 237 before getting a leggo....so there might be an error in my records...there stil remains the doubt of it...
Got any good epics? Some might be eve more usefull for you if you need a specific role. Booking them up is cheaper/easier etc
Also, you cant pull 319 ancients without a legendary. The mercy system prevents that. If it somehow failed for you, then you should contact plarium and report a bug
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqydLWxcH3A&ab_channel=ChoflyElite
Thx for that hint :) Yeah, some epics were nice like the Stag Knight, most werent. But that wasnt my point, I was just frustrated that the result was closer on the original quote(8%, 0,5%) than the promised boosted quote. Anyway, didnt invest money for the shards so it´s just frustrating but not a drama.
I agree with you, that the mercy system is garbage...it should be at half the number of shards pulled.
Getting a leggo between 200 and 220 does not prove a system like this existence so it is strong evidence.
That stil leaves the question....Why no counter?
And having some code within a program does not mean this code is actually used....just saying... I know that this is kind of conspiracy...but to my own numbers, I also pulled once until 237 before getting a leggo....so there might be an error in my records...there stil remains the doubt of it...
Yeah a counter would be nice, but the system wrks a way in which a counter makes no sense or wouldnt work.
Plarium showed that they really plan what Champions u´ll get and after how many shards u get them with the Countress Lix Event.
Theres an algorythm which gives u a championrewardlist for using shards.
So the game allready knows which champions you will get with the next x shards, like in the event.
It´s just sad, that the boost quote is just a fiction to motivate players to spend money into the game. Maybe that was my poblem why I got no legendary ^^
Must say I've seen nothing to prove that there is any multiplier at play in events or even the mercy system. I've got as many good pulls outside events than in.
Duplicates are a big problem though on one hand - I've had numerous boltsmiths and other generally awful dwarves as examples - but have had (I think) 5 or 6 apothecaries now, 4 galeks, 4 kaels as examples. That's great as they're some of the more useful ones but they still end up often being books.
At least in this event I finally got a preserver to let me finish my Rhazin fusion 😀
There are just too many really poor (or so niche they're pretty useless) pulls at all levels to be honest, even legendaries. But that's the way this game is setup.