If you do 6 runs we would expect to get one each weapon, helm, etc.  Half of those would come by the 3rd run, and half would come in the 4th through 6th run.  It's no different than rolling a die.  Half the numbers would be expected to come up by the 3rd roll, and half after the 3rd roll.  We wold expect, in six rolls, to roll once each a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6?  That adds to 21.  The average per roll is 21/6 = 3.5.

What you are saying would be equivalent to saying if 6 people rolled a die, only 3 of them would roll a six by the sixth roll, and 3 of them would still be looking for a six after the sixth roll.

You are correct that if you do 60 runs you will get 10 boots.  But you will get half of those boots by the 30th roll.  If you roll a die 6 times, you will get 1 six.  Half the time by the 3rd roll, half the time after.  If you do six runs, you will get one pair of boots.  Half the time by the 3rd run, half the time after.

If 6 players do 6 runs, one will get boots on the first run, one will get them on the second, one will....get them on the sixth run. The average number of runs to get boots = 3.5.  Same for weapons etc.

But the small picture is irrelevant. I could present you the numbers in a different way, but i thought i'd make it simple enough to understand. What all i presented means is something like this:

Out of 18643 runs (on normal drop rate), you will get about 3107 pairs of boots

Out of 3107 pairs of boots, you will get 443 with speed on them as main stat...

etc... you see where i'm getting at?

of those 3107 pairs of boots, you will (on average of course) eventually reduce this to 9 pairs of boots which are legendary, 6*, and have speed on them. And of those, ONE will be from the speed set.

Same difference, but in reverse :P

There was nothing wrong with your math.  It just stopped short of comparing in/out of 2x.  The initial point I wanted to make, and what I still feel is the important take away, is that grinding for speed gear during a 2x drop saves 44.4% resources.  Look at it from a results perspective.  Say two players grind and get equivalent speed gear, however much of whatever quality, but pretty much equivalent.  It could be one piece, or 100.  One of them does it during 2x, one without 2x.  The one with 2x saved 44.4% energy and time to get equivalent gear.  That's what I think should be made clear.  

The discussion about what the average is came up afterwards.  While it's technically important, it's not the take away for the average player reading this that just wants to play with the best efficiency to get the gear they want.  Whether it takes 3.5 or 6 runs on average to get a pair of boots, you will spend 44.4% less resources to get speed gear during a 2x.  Hopefully we can agree it doesn't get simpler than that.

The small picture is not irrelevant.  It doesn't matter if you're flipping a coin, rolling a 100-sided die, or looking at permutations in the 1000s.  And it doesn't matter if you flip the coin 1, 100, or a million times.  The logic and probabilities are exactly the same.

Oh ya, my bad, i didn't get that part LOL

Agreed. These 3-day periods as you correctly point out, if you need to farm a lot of different speed items, ain't no better time to do it than now :P

These multiple levels of rng also apply to hydra gear, which is why i think the rewards for hydra suck once you have mithrala

I get 4 chests a week, and most weeks no gear worth keeping.

If you have a one in six chance of an event occurring, then after 3.5 attempts, the probability that the event did *not* occur is 1 - (5/6)^3.5 ~= 47%. That's where the 3.5 comes from.

Basically - every set of 3.5 runs you do, there is about a 47% chance you will get a boot (in your example).

Wouldn't use ore on speed artifacts, I am using on relentless for now.  Considering for stoneskin... but I am still too lazy to gear anyone in it.  But I have some great items ready to go... 😆 

I use it on Stoneskin and Doom Tower stuff only myself. Stuff that is extremely gated, basically. Speed gear you can eventually farm... sometimes it takes months and months and months, but you can at least. :D

It is a good set, initially i geared my AOE revivers in stoneskin, but im now experimenting with putting my damage dealers in it.

It is just hard to get decent sets 

I still haven't used Candy after getting in that guaranteed event...lol.  he will be my 1st . I think damage dealers are the way to go if u get the right stats... I am rolling CR up the @#$ with stoneskin 😆 

It's absurd to try farming a perfect piece from dragon 20. If you're really hunting for that, you should be running dragon 25. Any account for which farming speed boots makes sense will easily be able to do stage 25, dragon is the most accessible of the dungeons.

So we're talking about twice the amount of 6* legendary pieces, with many more 6* epics as well.

Just to qualify this slightly - you're correct *if* you are only looking for 6* legendary pieces. However, if you are also happy with 6* epic pieces, then 24 is the way to go.

Try your forge the one set adds to your acc n speed n only takes 2 artifacts if you can't craft the boots use 2 artifacts from the speed set 2 n if you craft your boots I like the 2 crit rate  n crit damage takes 2  resistance remember you got be able to attack w all your force crit rate is the amount you r able to get a critical hit n crit damage is the damage you do n you want it to be a accurate hit punch your leg then your nose w the same power acc matters n you want enough resistance if you dont kill your target you can take his hit n attack again w the same power n all that n that's where speed comes n 2 I've done so many champions the first month n now I'm scrambling to make them better cause the stuff I didn't think mattered but it all matters at different times n places n the game your not gonna have 1 champion that just kills at everything I use different champions for different things n parts n I love this game play it constantly when I'm not messing w these damn chickens real life not the game chickens 

Thanks for the advice

Yes i use a lot of forge gear, lots of champs are kitted in perception and i tend to farm DT hard for lethal gear when fae is on the rotation.

Agree on using different champs for different situations :)

Well, effing finally, i got me a 6* speed boots for Arbiter, they're blue, but who cares. the only stat that really matters on her is speed, the rest is bonus.

I was beginning to despair LOL. I mean seriously. I counted all the 6* boots (don't ask me why i keep all of those, i'm still wondering myself!) i have, and i have close to 50 of them. Of those, TWO with speed... wth right? Aren't we supposed to have like 14% chance all equal across all the possible main stats? So with 50 boots, i should have like 7, but up to just now, i had one only (or roughly 2% of my 6*'s).. I know this is a small sample in the grand scheme of things, but not that small really. Even with smaller sampling, the margin of error for probabilities is "usually" not as extreme as i was getting. 

Maybe the tide is finally turning in my favor hehe :P

yes i agree but i get more like epic rings and stuff