I strongly disagree.
1) Planning (actually reading the missions)
2) Willingness to waste resources (being a hoarder allows this) or buy energy
3) Being dumb enough to race for a 1-time prize that is an eventuality
Comparing it to "shard luck" is actually a great analogy, those with "bad luck" on shards is due primarily to PEBCAK. Generally both inefficient play resulting in less shards, and not opening at optimal (2x, 1+1, guaranteed). Over time (4 years for me), its EV not rng. The variance is greatly minimized over time combined with efficiency/optimization.
The time gates just add a slight wrinkle to the strategy, and are generally welcome by me.
I would say 95% of "setbacks" are do to player mistakes / poor planning. The other 5% are a combination of bad rng and poor planning. At 142/180 now (bragging ribbon on). Most that have faultered are do to not having a hydra key left, no clan gold, claimed all clan quests on day 1, not saving IT keys, selling all Zeal gear, no mythical charms saved, ....