If I include free shards, those from events, and those from my ftp accounts, it is 118 pulls for 3 legos, or 2.5%. There can be fluctuations but with a larger sample size they should average out to the nominal rate, and that is not happening.

Not only that, but previous experiences with pool events typically require considerably more pulls than the summon chance would suggest, so the total is actually a lot larger than 118. In those earlier events I did fewer pulls, so I put that down to bad luck, but now I am not so sure. Having bad luck every time seems suspicious to me, but the observed numbers are consistent with a 3% chance.

In any event, they need to double check that they do not have a bug in the event description.

I am providing a significant data set, it is not just a handfull of numbers. I don't think it is appropriate to kneejerk reject my observations just because. 

It is more than 100 though, 118 this time around, but I have seen similar rates with smaller data sets in previous pool events.

I'm not sure what to tell you if you think 118 pulls is a significant amount of data, especially when the rate of the event you're looking for is 6%. EGDNIT covered this accurately. You can even do something like run 100 coinflip tests to see just the variance in results you'll see there, let alone something like 6%. 

Again, EV ROI doesn't automatically equal actual ROI

https://gachaguide.com/gacha_calculator

So, around 60% of the time you'll get six from your pulls.

i

118 isn't enough either. At 200, the 10th percentile is slightly above 7 out of the expected 12. 6 or less is about 4.1%. We're getting closer, but 1/24 is still not a rare event. At 1000, the 10th percentile is at 50 out of expected 60, and now we're starting to talk about statistical significance if you end up at 30 or less, which is about a 1 in 120k event.

Either way, we're talking anecdotal evidence. Winning the lottery may be a one in a million event, but it's inevitably going to happen to someone.

*Hands out tinfoil hats and hits blunt*

While doing morning jumping rope skips i was thinking, what if they lowered the 6% to idk, say 5,7%, maybe 5,4%, how much more money would they rake in from people hoping to get some champ they really want but without people noticing it?

While its most probably not the case, theres also a nonzero chance it is the case, we have no actual way to test it as far as i know (only if people on test servers can pull thousands upon thousands of shards idk), and if i think that would be a good way to rake in money shamelessly, some ceo-s will without a second thought say "make it happen" 😁

Morning conspiracy brought to you by shark

My expectation is they'd run afoul of laws in many countries by doing that. There are many places that explicitly require you to post odds on gambling-related activities, and I'd be very surprised if those places just casually looked the other way if your posted odds differed from reality.

Stop ruining the tinfoil theories with your reality!!

Pulled my first Lego from crystals at 67 shards. Sethia has graciously joined my team. 

- Coag

Those are Moderator Rates and not rates for us normal folk. My personal experience is as follows and I did file a complaint for such low rates and of course I was given a BS excuse. It is NO way 6% or like others I am the unlockiest person in the world.

Pulled 30 and received ZERO Legendary's. Yes, 30 and received NONE.

You tell me, how is it that this is all based on luck and some account have better luck (Moderator Luck) or just no luck. Who do I need to pay off to get some of that (Moderator Luck).?

Furthermore, if they indead messed up and posted the wrong rate, then I want a full refund of the money I spent for these Shards.

well at least this is a slightly entertaining if not a little bit unhinged addition to the tinfoil theories. the mod part is hilarious given one our forum mods has gone 38 deep on sacreds before. I can assure you our accounts run just the same as everyone else's. 

the short answer is 30 pulls = 1.8 legendaries on average. some of the sims run earlier in this thread touch on how wide results can be in small samples, which 30 is. the rates are working as intended, the issue in this thread lies with folks misinterpreting how math works. 

Simply,

(1 - 0.06)^30 ~= 16%, which is the probability of you not getting a single lego from pulling 30 shards. Or, said another way, roughly one in every six people who pull 30 yellows will come here to complain about not getting any legos.

The real question you should be asking yourself is: why are you pulling yellows when there is no 2x? Let alone pulling 30 of them? Especially given nowadays not only can you benefit from double-odds events, you also tend to be able to combine that with *many* other things, such as a progressive chance event to target a specific lego you want, a hero's path event to get other random goodies alongside your pulls, or even just a Champ Chase tourney or Summon Rush event. 

What is the defination of a Moderator.? To moderate the comments or to feign that the rates as stated are in fact true. Last I knew being a Moderator was to moderate chat and keep the boards running smoothly. Not to critize the people on the board and calling them non-proficent with math and the way math works. I might add, it is probability not math, per se. 

Now to answer your statement, as above, you claim that 30 pulls should receive 1.8 Legendaries (on average). So, if that is the case, how is my account and my record abnormal.?

Further, the issue is, that this is my account and my small sample size, as I felt something was off and wrong. Which it clearly is. Even by your own account of stating on average I should have received 1.8 legendaries. 

Personally, I don't find it hilarious at all, as we are spending real earned money to get something that is clearly flawed. This is my experience and it is simple, we can all choose to spend our money the way we want too, right.? What I cannot understand is the arrogance of laughing at your players and showing these poor rates on us, when we support your game, in good faith. I find it very sad that this attitude is taken towards the players of the game. Shame on you.

Lastly, I am speak about Prism Shards, NOT sacred shards. 

I am not talking about Sacreds, I am talking about the Prism Shards. We all know the difference of rates on 2x's, etc. 

Maybe I should have been more clear, as I thought this was a thread about Prism Shards and I should put my response from support on here. As they said it was all based on luck. Again, I ask a simple question, how can my "luck" be that horrible.?

oooookay. I'm not feigning anything sir, I just understand that a 16% outcome (referring to what kram outlined, i.e. when you go 0/30 on legendaries here) isn't very difficult and is an Occam's Razor situation rather than assumptions made via faulty premises. with regards to probabilities and math: how does one calculate probabilities, per se? :)

this rounds back to earlier points in the thread in that expectation (1.8 out of 30) isn't what you'll always get. sometimes it will be more, sometimes it will be less: such is the nature of RNG. it's a fallacy to assume we should get our expected value when this is all prone to variance (which means sometimes we'll get more than our average)

I do still find it hilarious that there's an idea that mods are some sort of folks that run better than anyone else when really, we're just players who volunteer on the forums and other platforms. please don't misrepresent my words. :) I understand that you're irritated because you've been unlucky, but do try to be factual.

lastly, stating that you - and others - are misinterpreting how RNG and probabilities work isn't a slight, it's just a factual statement devoid of insults other than what you're choosing to interpret. 

The job of a moderator is NOT to agree with flawed logic. They are not forced to nod to everything and they are NOT forced to NOT be a part of the community. 

Actually there are a lot more discussions with helpful comments from the moderators because they sometimes have a better base of information.

All your comments show that your perception of probsbilities are a bit off. If you understand the concept of probabilities, it is hilarious that you spend money on this shard system and expect to have a better result. Just because you spend money does not make you beat the odds. This is the problem with anyone falling for casino games and in the end Raid is kind of a casino game. 

Even your last comment shows how you are not accepting the math behind it. It is totally irrelevant if you are pulling sacred shards or Prism crystals. The base chance to get a leggo from them is 6% upon which the probabilities is based.

Anecdotal evidence: In the first years of playing Raid, I tracked the results of my shard pulls. I collected thousands of ancient/voiod pulls and hundredds of sacred pulls. There were times of low pulls with fewer leggos than the probabilities, there were times in which I got 3 leggos out of 50 ancient shards. In the end...the probabilities were very close (within 0.5%) to the publicized probabilities.

Abecdotal evidence 2: If you read more of my posts, you will notice that my posts are more on the criticizing side. That I feel like having to support Plarium in this one might show you that you are not correct with your critics.

btw...you are absolutely wrong in criticizing the mods...

Because a Moderator pulls X amount of Legendary and then goes on to say that the rates are Y because they post a clip of how lucky they got. Then to joke about it in a way that is demeaning to those of us who are clearly unlucky, that's OK.? 

Someone else here said that after 67 pulls of the Prism shards they finally got 1 Legendary. So, what is the norm.? Is the 67 rate or 30 pulls with ZERO or is X amount that a Moderator pulls is the standard. I do believe that we can all agree that the normal should be somewhere in the middle, like a true rate of 6%. Which clearly in my case is not the case. I spent all that money to get something and instead, all I received was aggravation, ridicule and laughter. As a grow man who can spend him money the way he wants too, I will point out. Lesson learned and I will never spend 1 more dollar on this game and I am a pretty big spender. All the game is doing is frustrating the people who support the game and without people like me who spend money on the game, the game will go away. As such, those of us who spend on the game keep it free for those who do not and it is players like myself who pay to keep the forums running and therefore the need for said moderators. 

That's Ok that some want to come on and pick and choose sides, in an effort for their own reasons, but it is pretty sad I might add. My experience is less than satisifying. I use to come onto the game to have fun and enjoy it, not to get frustrated with the FAKE drop rates. Sure, some will get lucky and some won't. Personally, my lesson has been learned and that's that. Don't expect me to suck up to anyone here, as a paying player I do not need a lecture about my math or mis-understanding of drop rates. I would bet there are more players like me and feel like me, then those who get a better drop rate and furthermore, who decides on this luck.? Are you going to tell me it is just random, DUMB LUCK.? Please, it is not. 

oooookay. 

again, to clear up a few misconceptions:

there is no moderator rate and honestly, I have no idea how and where you got this idea. stop the nonsense, sheesh. our accounts are the same as yours, prone to the same luck - good or bad. I've had void pulls where it took me full mercy almost and ones where I hit gold after 50. such is the way of things. 

yes, over a long enough sample size pull results normalize. (this is reflected in equations done earlier in this thread, and ones you can do online that show you ranges of results that occur). 

Luck in this instance is decided by probabilities. On the topic of probabilities, there are countless free resources online which I think could help people understand this better rather than come up with tinfoil theories. Khan Academy would be a great place to start for those confused by the concept. There are more than enough legitimate things we could discuss and debate about the game that could use improving that don't involve incorrect interpretations of statistics.