The guardians drop randomly and we cannot influence this process, unfortunately. It is a game mechanic that includes the criteria of luck. So keep trying and I am sure you will get the desired item.  

So three 50/50 events in a row and I run between 70/30 and 65/35 rate and it's just dumb luck? Right, we'll go with that answer.

I want to assure you that the event works correctly. Fingers crossed, you get the item you want.

Ok, so this has been going on for months now. I finally got 50% last time. This time I go 0 for 3. This is not random. Something is wrong in the game, and I refuse to spend another dime in the game until it's fixed.

Hello Murphy.

I am sorry you are feeling that the feature is not working, CM said that it is running as it should. 

As a player, I can give you my personal experience. There were a couple of times that I got 4/4 oranges... delightful. and sometimes... well, zero oranges from 4 or 5. I only open them just in 50% event or when guaranteed guardian event is running.

Today I got 5 oranges from 12 holy bonds applied. But from those 5, 3 were the guardians I have been waiting for a long time, so that was awesome for me. I prefer lees guardians that I can use than more orange that I will put down eventually.  I got a pair of purples I can use too.

CM told us it's a matter of luck. Well, we cant apply maths to luck, I guess. But the moderation team did highlight the complaint about the holy bond drop rate during this event. The answer you already know: it's a matter of luck.

I wish you the best of lucks for the next event. If you were not lucky this time, I'm positive you will be next time! Let us know!

the way it has been explained to us Mods is that its like a coin toss - a 50% chance with each throw, when you toss a coin (no NOT to your Witcher ;) ) each time is a new 50% chance