Just another update... yep, another 46 runs throught the dungeons, still not a single Ancient Shard 😠

That could easily become 460 runs, don't expect lots of shards from farming because it just doesn't happen. Plarium are tighter than a duck arse when it comes to share drops.

Drop rate is 0.5% on stage 20 normal. You should average 1 every 200 runs/3200 energy

And it does not go up or down all the way to Hard 10.  Still .5%.  Meaning that the OP has not even run enough to expect even one Ancient Shard, let alone multiples.....unless those 144 runs are also super-raids, in which case, a blue is a bit overdue by now.    

Right but that is still gambler's fallacy. Every run it is still only .5% so he could go 1,000 runs and still not get a shard. 

Lies.  I get an ancient shards on every 200th run without fail.  That's how percentages work dontchaknow.

He certainly could go 1000 runs w/o an ancient shard, but statistically, he is more likely to get five than zero, and is just as likely to get 10 as zero. It is just probability, and the larger the sample size, the more it will adhere to the drop rates.  

In smaller Samples, who knows what you'll get.  I remember @MooredRat making multiple comments about holding a multi-clan-cluster record for not getting Immortal Essence for the Marius Mission, while I landed on the 80 Essence Misison on 12/11 and already have 40 of the 80 six days later.  

Right if you did it a million times you will get a standard bell curve but you still could be two standard deviations out from 95% of the population. 

Mooredrat, yes, all of the runs I do I try to do super-raids... only way to go, I believe. Ironically, the very first pull I did as soon as the event ended was, wait for it...  an ancient shard! (hands up in frustration, shaking my head) 😔

Would you like me to explain the false perceptions RNG can cause? How about we just leave it at this, put simply:

The brain remembers bad experiences more than good. The brain also tries to make sense and look for patterns in anything. You combine those two things and you will feel like there is some "force" working against you or exploiting you. 

Finally, 1% Drop Rate does NOT mean 1 guaranteed per 100 runs. Statistically you can run 1000 times and possibly not get an Ancient. It's not likely but it is possible. 

PS: If it makes you feel better, years ago I believed there was some secret coding to prevent more than 2 legendaries to summon in a 10 pull of Ancient Shards. I've since found out otherwise.

"The brain remembers bad experiences more than good."

As a long time gambler: yes, a thousand times yes 😂

A couple months ago, someone was complaining here on the forums that they'd *never* gotten a lego champ from a void shard.

When they posted their champ roster though, it turns out they had about 6 void legos which could *only* be gotten from shard pulls.

That's a lot of math 🙇. Anyway, I have just decided that, regardless of the shyard, the ods are that I will only get the rares... for the most part. Occasionally, the pulls will surprise me and give up another color instead of blue. I'm still confused on the monkey king, though.  Not sure how nearly everyone in the arena has that one, and at level 60. How do you get that one, and the rst of the team, to level 60 in the first 72 hours of gameplay? I still never got Allure when I started playing, on either account, though I was supposed to...

It is what it is. Thanks for the insight and comments, though.

There's a promo code for it, but you can only use it in the first ...24? hours after an account is created.

That's what I was told by support. One account, the option was never given, even after I watched all the videos for her, The second accoung, after the videos, i went to collect her and she just vanished... not in collewction, not in mail, just nowhere. Support won't correct the issue, so I'm just out that one. it's a shame, she's basically a Tiefling- my favorite D&D character...lol.

you don't need to get them all to 60 in your first 72 hours. the 72 hour limit is just the window in which you can use the promo code, not a timer for how long you have the rewards. once you've used the code, you can level up the champions at your leisure.

in wukong's case specifically, he was a login reward in 2023 as well as being a new player promo code so most older accounts got a free copy of him then. hence his prevalence in arena.

Ah... that explains it.  thanks, Carpe_Piscis

As a long time clan member of yours i refuse to believe you've ever had bad RNG in anything in your life you lucksack.