I know this has come up before, i.e. sometimes 85% chance of success works and sometimes it doesn't. Has anybody worked out why yet? I thought it might be because all the gear had to be upgraded together but with two recent failures to upgrade lower level gear to match the rest I now know that is not the case. Most frustrating.
Well ,, I added up the number of hero item upgrades that I have done and got 116 in total but most of those were done at 90% or 100% chances of success with almost no failures. Very few upgrades were risked at 85% and I am guessing around a third of those failed.
Perhaps so, it is possible that just like in exams, there is a tendancy to answer the question desired, misread ,misunderstood, rather than the one really asked.
Perhaps the clans and players that are monitoring such,should be clearer,and say exactly what you did, rather than dressing up the facts in a story.
I am not able to analyse the program for accuracy, you would need a specialist for that, and only say what I did.
Sometimes people think, there must be something wrong, 'I should have got it by now ,but haven't.'
I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the data that has been either observed, or suggested,but would say ,is the sample used large to come up with a 25% success rate rather than the 85% suggested?
The other point I was hinting at, if not actually saying so before, was that you could get a run of 100 failures, but as long this was balanced out over a bigger run, then it would still pass muster.
When dismantling dragon rings I observed long sequences of either Diamonds or Elixir other times more random, perhaps the way computers churn out results is misleading.
Lottery organizers have to prove that their draws are fair and unbiased over the long haul.
The owners are the only ones that have access to the data and we have to rely on them checking and disclosing accurately.
Hi WDYWTNTF, I am sorry that the gear upgrading functionality does not satisfy you. It was intended to make the game experience more exciting, but we appreciate all feedback you might have, it helps us to get better🙏
Your comment has been forwarded to the developers for the further consideration. Stay tuned😇
As I wrote,I don't think that you can get higher than 85%.
I thought it odd too, that people seem to be ok with 90% working as it should, but not the 85%.
It would not seem to be logical that one functions correctly, and the other doesn't. but maybe this can happen.
The one good thing about you re raising the question and me trying to answer it is, that it has been referred to the tech team, so keep your fingers crossed.
Last points in connection with this theme.
I remember some other thread connected with this issue, or similar topic, where someone more knowlegeable with the mathematics,had to try explain the difference between the various ideas of doing something and not doing something after trying many times.
I used to play a game, where the successful outcome was only a 20% chance,and players would say, 'I have done it 20 times, I should have been successful now.'
Which again ties in with what Blackadder wrote.
If 100 different players tried the upgrade and reported a failure would they come up with it doesnt work at all?
and this time a 90% chance of success to level 5 failed and an 85% chance of success to level 6 succeeded - russian roulette?
another two goes at 85% chance of success, one did work and one didn't. It didn't cost me a long boat but it does take a lot of other hard to replace items.
(looking more like a 50% chance of success).
Agreed ..It is pure and simple greed on the part of plarium.I had 2 successive failures at level 8->9 on Ubba gear.It is frustrating cause you have to wait for the chiefs to re-appear and waste time just to get upgraded.There is no exciting dimension to those.Lets call it what it is - greed.
Well I believe 85% chance of success means 4 out of every 5 attempts should work.
( Just 2 of my last 5 attempts at 85% succeeded, despite using max amounts allowed of Helheim fire. )
I guess if Plarium advertised your chance of success at less than 60% a lot of people would not bother spending extra on coffers and hero energy trying to upgrade?
I guess I am not as cynical as you. I don't believe Plarium's aim is to sell you a pup (although I did enjoy reading that). I believe they want to sell you a carrot that you enjoy, ..... so that you want to buy more carrots.
Likewise I don't believe 85% chance of success = 85% chance of failure which I think is what you are suggesting .... although my recent failures would suggest that is true of whatever logarithim Plarium is using for these upgrades.
(80% chance of success means that 4 out 5 attempts, or 800 of 1,000 attempts should be successful, .... unless Plarium is suggesting that you MAY have an 80% chance of success in which case anything can happen).
I wonder if Ivar can tell us how the Plarium logarithm works. I.e is it based on the number of times each separate item is upgraded. Or are all the items per hero /shaman set amalgamated, or is it simply the number of upgrades each player attempts, irrespective of which set, for the hero and the shaman.
We do already know that the odds of failure increase the higher the upgrade level attempted.
I would like to suggest that if the game advises that by contributing x amount of helheim fire you will have 85% chance of success then the game should be counting each attempt so that alternate 5th or 6th attempts fail. Quite simple really !
And those that want to keep count can simply ugrade their less useful (i.e. less frequently used item ) on the 5th or 6th attempt.
(Are you saying that to get a success rate of 8 out of 10 attempts you have to repeat the exercise three times to get to get just one successful 8 out of 10 attempts ? That really sucks, unless the other two excercises give 10 out of 10 and 7 out of 10 and that does not seem to be happening either).
My alt has two more items to raise to level 6, both with 85% chance of success. I should invite people to bet on the odds - i.e. on both succeed, or both fail, or one of each.
( I think most would select one of each = 50%, despite the string of failures suggesting the next 4 should succeed, and ignoring Ivar's suggestion that the system resets each time so it can fail every time indefinately).
John: I was suggesting 5 successes in a row per 1 failure !
Surprise surprise: both attempts to raise my alts legendary gear with 85% chance of success to level 6 were successful.
I see palace levels below 32 can now win runic coins again. Maybe this gear upgrade % has been fixed too? 🙂
Well ,, I added up the number of hero item upgrades that I have done and got 116 in total but most of those were done at 90% or 100% chances of success with almost no failures. Very few upgrades were risked at 85% and I am guessing around a third of those failed.
Before I wrote further, I consulted a webpage , talking about chance, probability and odds.
It seems it is so confusing a topic that, some of the entries found in dictionaries can give inconsistant defintions, so no wonder that the non mathematician can be bewildered by it all.
So like the, do this task and get 'X'% bonus (and what is this % based on?) Is it really as big as it sounds?
Now the first question might be, what exactly is meant by 85% chance?
Now to answer what you last wrote.
It is in keeping with one aspect of my answer to Blackadder's comment.
How accurate are the complainees records, and further to this, how scientific is the data?
Though what they discovered may have some merit and be worth triggering an investigation.
It's sounds like it is just a bunch of 'this is what happened to me', rather than an audit by a professional statistician.
For one thing, players cannot conduct multiple trials, and there is no need to continue, once you have done the upgrade,and also is the total number of attempts made on upgrades a reasonable sample for a reliable analysis?
One thing that could be done is, take a hundred cards mark them up pass and fail, then not forgetting to put back a fail card ,and reshuffle the deck,see how many draws it takes to get a pass card.Rinse and repeat.
Remembering, that although pass and fail cards give a specific outcome, each of its kind is unique, so drawing a fail card may not be the same one.
Presumably this is what the program is trying to emulate, maybe it does, maybe they believe it does, but we know sometimes the game gets bugged.
Forgot to add.
My intial comment was based on the fact, it was like you were waiting for the secret instructions such that you would be guaranteed a 100% success rate with an 85% chance.
Given how long it takes to gather the materials, If the program is bugged, it makes sense to wait, otherwise it perhaps doesn't .
Hi WDYWTNTF
I think you are missing the point of this and other threads.
As you say 85% means on average if you have 100 attempts 85 will succeed and 15 will fail. The problem appears to be that clans who monitor their 100 attempts are reporting far lower rates of success than 85.
Why do you make invader and uber drops so low quality for legendary special equipment? This disparity allows a vacuum where greedy players dominant the game with their higher level equipment. In other words, it takes me and thousands of others forever to get and make legendary material.
Sorry I probaby was trying to answer from a different stand point, so didn't answer the question you asked.
I think what I was trying to say was that 85 times out of a 100 , it works, and 15 will fail.
Your response jogged my memory a little about what has been written before.
I am largely unfamiliar with the actual process of upgrading and would need to relocate the part of the game which explains it.
However I think you can't improve the chances, doesn't the chance of success diminish from a guaranteed conversion, to less, the higher you progress with the upgrades?
If so then there is nothing you can do, because its fixed, and not like when forging equipment, where you can get 100% chance by upgrading the strarting materials.
Of course you can get lucky and get legendary without starting with all legendary components but the chance of doing so drops according to the quality of the individual pieces, and will be fixed at the % given.
It's just mathematics, (or it should be) nothing else.
Over an an adequate period of time, so long as the chance approximates to 85%, it doesn't matter, except to the player,where in the sequence success happens.
Like tossing a coin,with a fair balance, it's always 50% chance.
The coin doesn't know, if,when, or how many times it's done it before.
Ivar - can you please check with your programmers that the logarithim used does actually guarantee an 85% success rate as advertised ? Resetting to a 50:50 chance each time is not a guaranteed 85% success rate.
Well .. I tried another two 85% chance of success upgrades to level 6, one worked and one failed ...... hardly an 85% success rate !
That is now 3 successes and 4 failures in the last 7 attempts which by my reasoning is less than 50% success rate.
One difference is that the success was with an item the hero was wearing.
