Risk, Debt, and Arena Mechanics
Firstly, this is more of a theorycrafting post, rather than a firm set of recommendations. I wanted to offer a (slightly) alternative view on the Arena situation and to check to make sure my thinking isn't completely off the rails.
Which it probably is.
We know that Arena and non-Arena activities are, at minimum, inherently-linked through the fact that overall account power determines matchmaking in Arena. Similarly, Arena play impacts non-Arena performance via the Hall, weekly gear, etc.
Having a higher account power means you are matched up against people with similarly higher account power. We know account power is an unfathomably awful metric for matchmaking in this venue because it doesn't reflect the actual potential performance from a champion (or gear) within the Arena. But going down in account power increases the probability of ecountering an opponent you can defeat.
Oh, by the way, in this theory, I am equating overall account power with interest-bearing 'debt', i.e., the more you have, the more it can cost you--in Arena performance.
Account Power = Arena Debt
There has also been discussion that playing the game, e.g., Faction Tombs, penalizes your performance in the Arena by raising your account power in various ways. But I think a better perspective is to view playing the non-arena game not as a penality, but rather as a risk to your arena (and therefore overall) performance. What's the difference?
Penalty implies a guaranteed negative, while risk implies a chance for either a positive or negative outcome. In this setting it's not a huge difference but a necessary one to make informed choices.
So, risk and debt. What this means is that playing other parts of the game outside of Arena is a risk to your overall performance through the possibility of increasing your debt in the Arena without an appreciable return in performance. Some activities are riskier than others. This is, of course, a completely bonkers game design, but it forces us to consider how to modify our gameplay to compensate.
Examples:
- Opening higher-quality shards is a risk to your overall account performance. There is the possibility that you pull a Kymar or Trunda or other high-peforming Arena champ. But there is a greater probability that you'll end up with a mediocre one, generally unusuitable for most Arena-play in the current environment. E.g., For each non-Arena producing epic you keep on the books at level one, you add about 2000* pts to your debt. Legendaries add about 2500* to your debt. Leveling or ascending these simply adds even more to your debt.
*Rough, completely unscientific survey of champions
- Equipping gear on champions that doesn't help your performance in the Arena is extremely risky as it substantially adds to your Arena Debt. I haven't been able to fully calculate this... but its high...very high.
- Using books on characters that don't go into skills that improve arena performance is also a risk. It adds to your Arena Debt. (Unsure as to general level of increase).
The question becomes: can you afford the risk of raising your account power through game activities without getting a return on your investment in the Arena? The irony here is that some cash-shop items are also risky. Buying and using shards is a risk to your account performance. Buying and using books is a risk. Etc. Again, kinda bonkers.
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What this theory means is:
1a) Keeping your account power to a minimum after recruiting the minimum cadre necessary for a competent Arena team is essential.
1b) Alternatively: You cannot let your debt outstrip your Arena-focused gear and champions. Having high debt and lower gear degrades your arena performance.
2) Don't build characters for fun. Chances are you probably can't afford the debt until really late-game.
3) If you aren't using a champion at this particular moment or foreseeable future, get rid of them or, at minimum, strip them of all gear.
4) Exploring parts of the game that don't improve arena performance is risky. You need to evalute everything you do in game to determine how it might affect your Arena Debt. Frankly, "fun" is inherently risky here.
5) Is it possible for an account to, at some point, become too loaded with Arena Debt to be successful in the near-term?
Okay, how crazy am I being?