We can assume that single run is 100% then you have chance to get one of 13 elements so it could be 7,6% for each element, but dont think it is like that. Then if they doubled one element it will be around 14% chance to drop it per run
Yes, that's pretty much how I interpret this as well. In other words, the chances may be doubled, but double of a low number is still quite low, and it doesn't mean you will start to see these every 5 runs
This is why i hate when some try hard pops on here and starts trying to look cool by posting probability equations.....
You are having to trust that plarium are even telling the truth about their %% because there is literally no proof
That's why I still try to encourage people to actually make an open spreadsheet to catalogue drop rates for the community, because without any data to counter Plarium's statement, people have no real argument, hence you can only trust Plarium's statement.
And no, your post about your bad streak is not a good enough data, you can't calculate the probability on the game the size of raif just from 1 account's snipet in time. I have my criticism to Plarium, but on the part of pull chances, the community here never really raly to catalogue their pulls as a community (not just per account) to dispute Plarium
my suggestion would be to unburden your mind about any discussion or claims by plarium regarding odds of getting anything; apparantly odds do not apply to any one account:
my suggestion would be to unburden your mind about any discussion or claims by plarium regarding odds of getting anything; apparantly odds do not apply to any one account:
Huh, what do you mean "odds do not apply to any one account"?
That's why I still try to encourage people to actually make an open spreadsheet to catalogue drop rates for the community, because without any data to counter Plarium's statement, people have no real argument, hence you can only trust Plarium's statement.
And no, your post about your bad streak is not a good enough data, you can't calculate the probability on the game the size of raif just from 1 account's snipet in time. I have my criticism to Plarium, but on the part of pull chances, the community here never really raly to catalogue their pulls as a community (not just per account) to dispute Plarium
Exactly this. The strong clan clusters have thorough spreadsheets about these kinds of things and the posted probabilities always check out. Even then, one can still be skeptic about the data and we'd still ultimately have to trust Plarium.
Everyone gets good hauls, and you hardly see them being posted but the confirmation bias to bad RNG is more likely to be reinforced with the greater number of people venting. Just keep in mind that there are 8 other sets in Fire Knight, and the Drop boost doesn't mean Stun sets are what you'll get all of the time.
you can NOT trust Statistics ...
If 100 people Flip a Coin 100 times it Will NOT do a 50% Heads / Tails Split
If a 1000 People flip a Coin 1000 times it WILL NOT do a 50% split Heads/Tails
BUT ON AVERAGE the Probability of One person Flipping a Coin 20 times
has a Fairly good chance of being a 50/50 Split one in 20 repeats
NOW, equate this to Fire Knight you have to add in THIRTEEN MORE VARABLES
So you Chances of getting a STUN Piece is 1 in 13 x 2 / 1000 +12 = XY
where X is 0.002 and Y is 2300/547987
Huh, what do you mean "odds do not apply to any one account"?
You will have to go through that link I posted, why someone opened 319 blue shards and did not get a lego. Apparantly "odds" posted in the game apply across the board and not to any individual.
For example:
Aaaah but at the scale of statistics, 300 is such a low number, and you're assuming that 300 count is calculated all on your account instead of the whole population of players.
Say it does give players a legendary in every 100th pulls, you think that 100th pull will be calculated per account? No the calculation is for the whole population, thus, the spread!
Say there's 100 people like you, each pulling 300 shards. That's 30,000 pulls, probability says there's a chance of 300 legendaries in that whole pull, my question do you really honestly think the spread of that 300 legendaries are spread equally among those 100 players?
So yes, GAMBLER'S FALLACY, because you think that you pulled enough shards, you think you deserve a legendary (or 3), while in reality the probability is not being counted per account, but as the whole population.
That's why there's people who got 2 legendaries in as less as 10 pulls, while others can pull hundreds of times without getting a single legendary.
As long as the whole population pull shows around 1% legendary population, the system doesn't care about the spread of the legendary.
Ima get blocked again for commenting on an obvious cash grab EVERYTHING IN THIS GAME IS REVENUE MOTIVATED There are no free gifts to you its all a grind because in the end you need energy.. youll soend eventually or you wont play more than 20 minutes F2P doesnt exist in this game not if your playing it Prove me a total f2p act that hasnt spent 1$ ill show you a 2 year old lvl 25 act.. its all rigged i spend about 20$ a month on this garbage and thats to much