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Are arena medals worth grinding for?  If you have 71 years, then maybe.  (Beware some math here)

Are arena medals worth grinding for? If you have 71 years, then maybe. (Beware some math here)

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6 сент. 2020, 22:1906.09.20
01.08.18
1

Are arena medals worth grinding for? If you have 71 years, then maybe. (Beware some math here)

Bronze medals take 6.58 years to complete?

Bronze medals per win at Tier III: 1 medal

Great Hall medals needed to completely kit out Bronze: 12,000 medals (50 + 150 + 300 = 500) (500 x 24 = 12,000)

If a mission takes 1 minute to complete, 60 medals per hour: That is 2,00 hours of arena duels. That is 8.33 days of grinding arena missions and winning. (12,000 / 60 = 200) (200 / 24 = 8.33)

A refresh of opponents every 15 minutes gives 10 opponents. That is 40 opponents per hour giving 20 minutes of waiting for refresh per hour. So this makes it 300 hours of arena duels. That is 12.5 days of grinding arena missions and winning. (12,000 / 40 = 300) (300 / 24 = 12.5)

Of the 10 opponents 2 of them I have a conceivable chance to win. That gives 13 minutes of downtime per 15 minutes refresh cycle. 52 minutes of downtime per hour. With 8 medal wins per hour: That gives 1,500 hours or 62.5 days. (12,000 / 8 = 1,500) (1,500 / 24 = 62.5)

Now if you need to sleep 8 hours a day, That is 16 hours per day of grinding medals. This gives 93,75 days of grinding arena missions and winning. (1,500 / 16 = 93.75)

Now a more realistic look at this is a person doing the 5 arena missions per day. If they win all of these missions that will give 2,400 days.or 6.58 years: (12,000 / 5 = 2,400) (2,400 / 365 = 6.575)

So for all Bronze, Silver, and Gold medals:

Bronze medals would take 2,400 days or 6.58 years. (12,000 / 5 = 2,400) (2,400 / 365 = 6.575)

Silver medals would take 7,200 days or 19,73 years. (36,000 / 5 = 7,200) (7,200 / 365)

Gold medals would take 16,320 days or 44.71 years. (81,600 / 5 = 16,320) (16,320 / 365)

So to get all 129,600 medals at 5 medals per day would be 25,920 days or 71 years. (12,000 + 36,000 + 81600 = 129,600) (129,600 / 5 = 25,920) (25,920 / 365 = 71.01)


So in conclusion...  71 years to complete the medals in the Great Hall.  In my opinion, is it worth the effort?  Not really.  Even if this game lasted 71 years (probably unlikely) would it be worth the 20% increase to HP ATK, and DEF. Or for a 25% increase to C.DMG?  Or an 80 point increase to RESIST and ACC?


Maybe it is time to reduce the medal cost or increase the medals awarded.

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6 сент. 2020, 23:0906.09.20
15.01.20
105

Nope it’s not needed imo unless you want to have faster runs. My great hall is lv 27. I can auto all dungeons levels. I made it to gold 4 last night and I’m 420 medals away from lv 10 great hall upgrade.  


Once I get my Arbiter in roughly 2-3 weeks I will never care about arena again. 

6 сент. 2020, 23:2206.09.20
05.07.19
747

There's a lot of mistaken assumptions there, as you go higher in the tier, you get "more" medals, as in 1 gold medal is worth 4 bronze medal, of which they can significantly decrease the amount of time needed.

Also you're assuming average people are just doing the 5 daily battles, on which many people actually do 12 to help their clan in collecting clan points (?)

Not that I disagree with you in spirit, but many  of your assumption are off base


7 сент. 2020, 04:2907.09.20
19.12.19
6277

OzzLee said:


There's a lot of mistaken assumptions there, as you go higher in the tier, you get "more" medals, as in 1 gold medal is worth 4 bronze medal, of which they can significantly decrease the amount of time needed.

Also you're assuming average people are just doing the 5 daily battles, on which many people actually do 12 to help their clan in collecting clan points (?)

Not that I disagree with you in spirit, but many  of your assumption are off base


I've done 262 arena battles this week. 210 52.

7 сент. 2020, 05:0707.09.20
05.07.19
747
Trips said:

I've done 262 arena battles this week. 210 52.

You're not average people Trips! 😆
7 сент. 2020, 22:4607.09.20
13.05.19
2326
HA HA - Your numbers are so wrong.
7 сент. 2020, 22:5807.09.20
01.08.18
1

OzzLee said:


There's a lot of mistaken assumptions there, as you go higher in the tier, you get "more" medals, as in 1 gold medal is worth 4 bronze medal, of which they can significantly decrease the amount of time needed.

Also you're assuming average people are just doing the 5 daily battles, on which many people actually do 12 to help their clan in collecting clan points (?)

Not that I disagree with you in spirit, but many  of your assumption are off base


I have seen that 1 gold medal is worth 4 bronze, but can you use 4 bronze to get 1 gold medal?  I have seen the conversion rate down, but not upwards.



I am not sure I made any bad assumptions.  The ability to go higher in the tiers is problematic.  Because of the high price to low reward, high-level players will still farm bronze medals to promote their rewards.  And (based on my earlier calculations) if you can earn 16 gold medals per hour, for a total of 64 bronze per hour, or you can farm bronze tiers III and IV with a much higher win ratio of 9 wins out of 10 battles, you get 72 bronze per hour.  With a 12% increase, why not farm the lower level tiers?  With a significant number of higher-level players farming at the top of the bronze tiers, how is a lower-level player supposed to move consistently to the Silver or Gold tiers to earn the lesser conversion rate?


Then there is the win/loss issue.  Currently, according to my battle log, I earn (on average) 9 points for a win and lose 10 points for a loss.  To earn the 400 points to progress from the bottom of Bronze Tier I to the bottom of Silver Tier I, I would need to win approximately 44 arena battles or 400 points.  Assuming that I am not losing battles by my defense team, at 8 winnable battles an hour, it would take 5.5 hours to climb to Silver.  Now the issue is the downtime losses.  Since the writing of my original message, I went from between 1,100 to 1,200 arena points to 947 points.  So in 24 hours, I lost 200 points or 2.7 hours of battling.  If this was an average loss per day, to be able to stay in the Silver Tier's over a 24 hour period, I would need to reach Silver Tier 3 (or 1600 arena points).  From 950 to 1600 is 650 arena points, at 9 points per win of 8 wins per hour, it comes to 9 hours per day.


Again, there is an assumption in there.  I am assuming that your points per win average are static.




As to players doing more than 5 daily battles...  Here is some more math:


Raid: Shadow Legends has over 250,000,000 downloads as of an article in 2019.  That should translate to 250,000,000 players.


Approximately 60% will play 5 days or less.  That leaves 100,000,000 players.


Approximately 50% will be in a clan.  That is 50,000,000 players.


Each server (5 that I can find) has over 1,000 clans. (A new clan has a rank of >1K)  That gives us 5,000 clans.


90% of clans are social or non-competitive.  That gives us 500 competitive clans who would be promoting earning ranking points.


Each clan has at most 30 players.  This gives 15,000 players in competitive clans.


For the sake of argument, we can double that number to include up and coming clans and people who are earning points for fun.  This gives 30,000 players.


30,000 players out of 250,000,000 potential players is 0.012%

30,000 players out of 100,000,000 active players is 0.03%

30,000 players out of 50,000,000 clanned active players is 0.06%


While 30,000 players are quite a few, it is not statistically significant compared to the average clanned and un-clanned players base of 100,000,000 that I am writing about.



And again, I did make some assumptions on the numbers.  I do not have an accurate count of current downloads to date, current active players to date, or the current number of clans.  I attempted to be more liberal in my assumptions to err on the side of caution, but for the most part, they hold true.  The percentages are approximations based on the sociology of gaming textbooks and articles about sociology in gaming from the internet.  I felt that 60% of inactive to active users was accurate enough for this discussion as opposed to 37% to 61% with a 3% margin or error projected retention rate of MAU (monthly active users) to MIAU (monthly inactive users), from an article in 2015 about historic free to play applications in the gaming market...

7 сент. 2020, 23:3307.09.20
19.12.19
6277
OzzLee said:

Trips said:

I've done 262 arena battles this week. 210 52.

You're not average people Trips! 😆
And I won a few more after that to get close to 3000 in G4, but alas I woke up at the top of g2.  200+ wins was not enough to stay in G4 lol.  Be interesting to see if I can battle all the way up this week.  I doubt it, G3 is only marginally easier than G4.
8 сент. 2020, 01:4608.09.20
8 сент. 2020, 01:57(отредактировано)
05.07.19
747

Findian said:


Actually too long to quote...

High level players go down to the lowest rank they can get a guaranteed win and that is not necessarily going to bronze to farm bronze medal.

I can farm silver 1 I don't need to go down to bronze to build my bronze GH upgrade.

If a player can safely farm gold there is no need to go down to bronze, in which it is highly inefficient. You think people who meticulously calculated each detail of the speed of the champs they have so they can add a bit more damage and defense can't calculate the efficiency of farming in bronze?

And about clan, it's not actually about competitiveness, it's just so they can get that clan chess faster. Many seems to also don't care about winning those 12 fights.

And about that fights needed to stay in silver... I don't think I have ever lose more than 100 points a day, and I battle around 12 times a day as well, and my points are just floating around 1310 - 1370, on a bad day sometimes I do breach bellow 1300 but if I ignore it, it usually goes back up to 1310 in an hour or two, in a good day however I can get to 1430 breaching silver 2.

But then again, I think I found a "cheap" way to make people avoid my account in Arena, so my defensive log is not that active.

Hint: people don't like to face an account that would take them more than 3 minutes to fight. So when creating a defensive team, don't think about winning, think about frustrating the opponent


Oooh and another thing, most people don't have a target to fully upgrade their GH, just the essential stats of their favourite hero or the most heroes they have in their roster.

And on the other EXTREME end of the spectrum is this guy

https://youtu.be/rF9fGIJYT7Y

1 year 2 months to fully upgrade his GH. If anyone is committed to actually fully upgrade their GH (meaning also buying stuffs to get top champs and artifacts and speed upgrading them) I think 2 years is an achievable goal

8 сент. 2020, 05:4808.09.20
29.07.20
16
OzzLee said:


Oooh and another thing, most people don't have a target to fully upgrade their GH, just the essential stats of their favourite hero or the most heroes they have in their roster.

And on the other EXTREME end of the spectrum is this guy

https://youtu.be/rF9fGIJYT7Y

1 year 2 months to fully upgrade his GH. If anyone is committed to actually fully upgrade their GH (meaning also buying stuffs to get top champs and artifacts and speed upgrading them) I think 2 years is an achievable goal

That GH is fully gold, but he's 3 levels short of max on many of the stats.  He still needs like ~ 50k Gold medals to cap.
8 сент. 2020, 06:1208.09.20
8 сент. 2020, 06:12(отредактировано)
05.07.19
747
mantisfu said:
That GH is fully gold, but he's 3 levels short of max on many of the stats.  He still needs like ~ 50k Gold medals to cap.
Oooh yeah, thx for bringing that up to my attention... Still, it's far than the OPs calculation of 71 years
8 сент. 2020, 13:2708.09.20
19.12.19
6277
OzzLee said:

mantisfu said:
That GH is fully gold, but he's 3 levels short of max on many of the stats.  He still needs like ~ 50k Gold medals to cap.
Oooh yeah, thx for bringing that up to my attention... Still, it's far than the OPs calculation of 71 years
So somewhere between 2 and 71 years lol