Just another update... yep, another 46 runs throught the dungeons, still not a single Ancient Shard 😠

That could easily become 460 runs, don't expect lots of shards from farming because it just doesn't happen. Plarium are tighter than a duck arse when it comes to share drops.

Drop rate is 0.5% on stage 20 normal. You should average 1 every 200 runs/3200 energy

And it does not go up or down all the way to Hard 10.  Still .5%.  Meaning that the OP has not even run enough to expect even one Ancient Shard, let alone multiples.....unless those 144 runs are also super-raids, in which case, a blue is a bit overdue by now.    

Right but that is still gambler's fallacy. Every run it is still only .5% so he could go 1,000 runs and still not get a shard. 

Lies.  I get an ancient shards on every 200th run without fail.  That's how percentages work dontchaknow.

He certainly could go 1000 runs w/o an ancient shard, but statistically, he is more likely to get five than zero, and is just as likely to get 10 as zero. It is just probability, and the larger the sample size, the more it will adhere to the drop rates.  

In smaller Samples, who knows what you'll get.  I remember @MooredRat making multiple comments about holding a multi-clan-cluster record for not getting Immortal Essence for the Marius Mission, while I landed on the 80 Essence Misison on 12/11 and already have 40 of the 80 six days later.  

Right if you did it a million times you will get a standard bell curve but you still could be two standard deviations out from 95% of the population.