Hi, 

This ends up becoming an issue of probabilities and with these shards being opened by many players in this sample size the mercy system won't kick in. 

Even going 100+ as one player opening voids - without being in mercy - isn't crazy at all. 

I and others have serious doubts about the validity of it all. A lot of time the big spenders make the giant shard pull videos and get something. The fact none of them did get anything and other reddit users posting about the same lack of anything from this specific event is sus.

A 1% chance should spark something and it's even better than that when you do add up the mercy system. 

My clan and I may be in the tinfoil hat side of this, but to us and some others, the math ain't mathing

M

There's definitely a few biases at play here which makes tin foiling a lot easier to do. :)

Just looking back at the big primal weekend there were CCs pulling mythics left, right & center but at 1% it's quite easy to have times where you - or others - just whiff hard.

With regards to the mercy system, that's only going to be at play when it's one person going to 201-220 pulls without a lego.

It really does come down to an Occam's Razor situation as 1% really isn't that much in a smaller sample size - such as the 400 your clan opened combined - and comes down to probabilities and variance.

So, a few numbers - this past weekened was 2x void + 10x on Ync. Let's look at the expected value from 400 voids in terms of number of legos you should be getting. Given your odds are 1%, let's simplistically say you're expected to get 4 legos. Let's also pessimistically say you only got three.

The odds of pulling a targeted void champ on a 10x weekend, given there are approximately 70 void legos, is approximately 10/70 = 14.3%. The odds of *not* getting the 10x'ed lego after pulling three voids, is (1 - 0.143)^3 = 63%, and therefore the odds of getting it is about 37%.

That means for every 400 void shards pulled, you're only looking at 37% chance of getting her. Your entire clan using 400 voids still results in a less than 50% chance of the outcome you're looking for.

Furthermore - while it's certainly *possible* that from 400 shards your clan got absolutely zero legos, it's much *more* likely that some people did in fact get some forgettable void lego and simply didn't mention it.

I got her from about 50 shards.  RNG gonna RNG in the end.

posted this elsewhere but I opened 96 shards during the 2x ... I actually wanted epics lol

i

Hacks.  Filthy hacks.

If I mathed it right, the odds of rolling a percentage 400 times and not having it come up a 1 even once is a little shy of 1.8% chance. Unlikely, but not exactly universe-breaking.

I like said f u elsewhere, so I'll repeat here!