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PSA - Getting 1320 in LA Seasons (Inc. a Recap of Underlying Fundamentals)

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Mar 24, 2026, 06:0503/24/26
01/31/20
2489

PSA - Getting 1320 in LA Seasons (Inc. a Recap of Underlying Fundamentals)

There was quite a bit of discussion about getting the Mythical Materials (1320 pts) during the last season, so I figured I'd share my experience for anyone deciding if it is worth the effort.

First the TLDR: If you can meet or beat a 51% Win-Rate, you can hit 1320 pts with your daily 10 plus one daily refill, for a net expense of 280 gems, minus any refills you pick up from Hard Sintanos.   

Here's the long version for your reading enjoyment: 

Some LA Fundamentals (Feel free to correct me if I mistate something):

  • At the outset of Live Arena, there were Bots in Bronze & Silver, but since the introduction of the first LA Season, there have been Bots in Gold.  Lose three in a row, and your next fight will be a Bot.
  • Off Season, LA Matching is based on your Rank Points on the General Leaderboard, but you can be matched with anyone within your Tier, and possibly up/down a Tier.  
  • In Season, LA Matching is based solely on your Rank Points on the Seasonal Leaderboard. Your General Rank Points & Tier are not factored at all, which can lead to some serious mismatches, especially in the first week of each Season.
  • Thousands of High End Players did not engage with LA until (1) The addition of the Daily LA Milestones & 5 Win Chests and (2) The addition of LA Season Rewards. Therefore, LA Rank Points on the General Leaderboard are far more indicative of how early a player engaged with LA than they are of actual LA Skill.
  • The Conventional Wisdom is that the LA Matching Algorithm does more than match on points. It actively pushes players to a 50/50 win rate, meaning that fights become tougher the more you win and easier the more you lose.

Compared to the average Raid Player, I am highly engaged with LA: Currently 19,675 Pts @ Rank 3881.  However, I did not become an every day LA Player until the time windows were expanded and the Daily LA Milestones & 5 Win Chests were added. Since then, I have earned the Daily Chest the vast majority of the time, but I still did not engage in LA enough to hit 1320. Two seasons ago, I decided to go for 1320 around mid-season. Making up the extra points with only two weeks to go was grueling, and I wasn't sure I'd ever try for 1320 again.

However, when last season came around, I decided that I would go for 1320, and that I would push from Day One. My Typical In-Season Win-Rate has been 55%-60%, but last Season was rough, probably due to the rapid influx of Mercurial Builds. (Nerf Mercurial!) My Win-Rate Last Season was a meager 51% on 420 fights.

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So, why does this matter?

An LA Season is 28 Days long and 420 fights is exactly 15 fights per day, so if you can meet or beat a 51% Win-Rate, you can hit 1320 pts with your daily 10 plus one daily refill for a net expense of 280 gems, minus any refills you pick up from Hard Sintranos.  

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Mar 24, 2026, 18:4703/24/26
12/19/19
7219

Is conventional wisdom synonymous with raid tinfoil hat theory? 

Otherwise excellent info!!! I'd pin this thread (I'll delete any unnecessary commentary upon request  😀

I definitely recommend the "wiley" strategy of buying 1 refill per day from day 1 (i usually wait a bit myself).  

I will attempt this season sans mercurial, predator, solonar.... f those 3!!!


Mar 24, 2026, 19:1003/24/26
Mar 24, 2026, 21:12(edited)
01/31/20
2489

I'll wear my tinfoil hat with pride when necessary, but the LA Algorithm pushing people toward 50/50 isn't my theory, and personally, I am not totally convinced.  I included that bullet point because of the prevalence of that belief. It was all the other regular LA commentors on the Forum (including you and the Mods) and on Raid's Discord that elevate it to what I referred to as "Conventional Wisdom".

ShortOnSkillzModerator
Mar 24, 2026, 20:4403/24/26
06/24/19
4607
WileyMan

I'll wear my tinfoil hat with pride when necessary, but the LA Algorithm pushing people toward 50/50 isn't my theory, and personally, I am not totally convinced.  I included that bullet point because of the prevalence of that belief. It was all the other regular LA commentors on the Forum (including you and the Mods) and on Raid's Discord that elevate it to what I referred to as "Conventional Wisdom".

Im not so sure it forces you to 50/50 but I do think you get matched with others who either have a high win % or are on a big win streak as well.  I only say that because I usually finish between 65-75% WR every season. 

Mar 24, 2026, 21:4803/24/26
12/19/19
7219
ShortOnSkillz

Im not so sure it forces you to 50/50 but I do think you get matched with others who either have a high win % or are on a big win streak as well.  I only say that because I usually finish between 65-75% WR every season. 

I don't think it has any of that over engineering involved tbh. Sure, it seems that way here and there.  But I'm guessing it's as basic as possible. Queue timestamp and rating.

Mar 24, 2026, 22:3203/24/26
01/31/20
2489

If the thread gets pinned, I am happy to edit the "Fundamentals" bullet points to remove that and/or include other useful information.

ShortOnSkillzModerator
Mar 25, 2026, 12:2903/25/26
06/24/19
4607
Trips

I don't think it has any of that over engineering involved tbh. Sure, it seems that way here and there.  But I'm guessing it's as basic as possible. Queue timestamp and rating.

I think there is something extra.  But likely pretty rudimentary.

ShortOnSkillzModerator
Mar 25, 2026, 12:3003/25/26
06/24/19
4607
WileyMan

If the thread gets pinned, I am happy to edit the "Fundamentals" bullet points to remove that and/or include other useful information.

Ill pin it. 

Jun 3, 2026, 03:39Yesterday
01/31/20
2489

No comments in over two months. The peeps that wanted to talk (bitch) about getting to 1320 apparently never came back or weren't interested in the actual facts.

You can certainly leave this thread pinned, but I am not sure how much value it is offering if no one is reading & commenting.

Jun 3, 2026, 04:01Yesterday
Jun 3, 2026, 05:10(edited)
01/31/20
2489

What I have learned about my In-Season Live Arena performance in the Mercurial Meta is that I am both terribly consistent & consistently terrible.  Including the Season I included above, my In-Season win-rate while grinding out the 1320 has been 51%, 51% & 50% for the past 3 Seasons.

The point changes that took effect before this past season allowed me to hit the 1320 with just 378 battles, which is 42 fewer than the season shown in the original post.

@Trips How goes our Mercurial Race?  I am still not using any?  You?  I am collecting it, but most of my pieces are crap compared to the quality of gear I have in other sets, and I refuse to not build for stats and to just rely on the cheesy Mercurial effect. I have fiddled around with a partially built set on Maria, but have not finsihed the build or glyphed the gear, so you can still beat me if you've got a mind to....

Jun 3, 2026, 04:05Yesterday
01/31/20
2489

I must say that I enjoy LA a whole heck of a lot more in the Off-Season when I just go for 5 wins and then try to end with 3 losses in a row.  Today, for example:

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ShortOnSkillzModerator
Jun 3, 2026, 11:33Yesterday
06/24/19
4607
WileyMan

I must say that I enjoy LA a whole heck of a lot more in the Off-Season when I just go for 5 wins and then try to end with 3 losses in a row.  Today, for example:

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Youre a madman for doing it off season.  Howd you find last season with the point restructuring?

Jun 3, 2026, 16:41Yesterday
12/19/19
7219
WileyMan

What I have learned about my In-Season Live Arena performance in the Mercurial Meta is that I am both terribly consistent & consistently terrible.  Including the Season I included above, my In-Season win-rate while grinding out the 1320 has been 51%, 51% & 50% for the past 3 Seasons.

The point changes that took effect before this past season allowed me to hit the 1320 with just 378 battles, which is 42 fewer than the season shown in the original post.

@Trips How goes our Mercurial Race?  I am still not using any?  You?  I am collecting it, but most of my pieces are crap compared to the quality of gear I have in other sets, and I refuse to not build for stats and to just rely on the cheesy Mercurial effect. I have fiddled around with a partially built set on Maria, but have not finsihed the build or glyphed the gear, so you can still beat me if you've got a mind to....

First one.  Crappy build but doesn't matter lol


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