Unfortunately it's the second

Friend IT'S ALWAYS BEEN LIKE THIS. If you had followed the forum you would know,,, the developer takes advantage of your trust and tricks you in every event, it's always been like this, open all the chests, on the first spin it seems like you win immediately, but it's calculated,, so you keep going until the free tokens run out and you have a few chests left to open, so you rush to buy them, and so they deceive you, this whole game is a HUGE DECEPTION, EVERYTHING IS MANIPULATED, BOTS, AI, MATCHES, WEAPONS... EVENTS. YOU ARE JUST CANNEL FOOD, FROM THE FIRST TO THE LAST, YOUR MONEY IS INTERESTED, NOT YOUR FUN, AND IF YOU GET PISSED OFF THEY DON'T CARE AT ALL... friend it's always been like this, don't get angry... it's a game of nerfs and manipulations. Don't take it personally......

I know that I get pissed at this as well. But once in a while the odds do work. I was thinking about doing maybe a max of 10 rolls for the seeker, but I did get lucky and win it on the second roll.

LOL plariSCAM 

I skipped pod8 cause I already had it and who cares about quashers. 

LAST SPIN AGAIN FOR A "FAIR" ROLL??? 

YEAH RIGHT PLARISCUM YOU CHEATING BASTARDS

HOW IS IT POSSIBLE I GET LAST ROLL ON EVERY SINGLE WEAPON 

You guys need to get sued you God damn scum.

i

Come on guys. There's a lot wrong with the game but 5% odds (while better than old ECRs that were 1% or less) are not great odds to begin with. Each time you spin you have a greater chance of not getting the prize than the chance of getting the prize. It's as simple as that. Plarium doesn't have to cheat or swindle you because the math is totally fine.

Now of course they could choose to make the odds even higher, and if that's what you want that's fine. But expecting anything but near the last roll with 5% starting odds is hoping for too much, mathematically speaking.

Consider this - The probability of going to the very last roll in a 20-spin ECR is actually pretty high - about 35%. So it's totally believable that you get the last roll often. Now if you happen to get it every ECR that's just bad luck. If that were happening with everyone there would be a problem, but plenty of people get it before the last roll, and it does happen sometimes that people get it on the 1st roll too.

You are right 👍

Fortune crates are rigged too.  3 different accounts 18 out of 20 pulls net the same skins.  With a .01% chance of pulling skin, what are the chances of pulling the same skins across 3 accounts?

I have not had such experience with the crates. Perhaps you've had a bad luck streak?

Actually, it's closer to 38%. You've got a 95% chance to not get it on each roll. .95 raised to the power of 19 you've got a 37.77... % chance to not get the weapon in 19 rolls

Agreed, but I was being conservative because the odds of getting the prize increase a tiny bit with each roll, so whatever is the actual value is a little less than 37.77%. Hence "about 35%". :-) 

The point is that even with that conservative estimate these odds of going all the way to the last spin are actually quite high.

"Tar, where did you learn math? Do you even know what numbers are?"

One day when you are better educated I hope you have the wisdom to feel some remorse over your ignorant words.

"Looks like they banned my account for making this thread! Lolol what a joke, scummy work plarium!! "

There is a chance that you got banned by their auto spam filter. Just write to support and they will unban you unless they had a more specific reason to do so.

You're right that my maths was wrong for this kind of case, where the main prize probability stays the same as every other item. But many events in the past have been of the kind where the main prize stays near 5%. 

I'm not going to analyse your maths for this kind of case. I don't really care if it is precisely right or wrong because your experience of almost always getting the last spin seems specific to you. Perhaps it's karma for your infantile online behaviour.

Hey guys! I muted Hyungoppa for several days, as their behavior is way too offensive towards you and the game. It's not a constructive discussion of the Event Crate Rushes or the fairness of their probability distributions.

Aw man thanks but I was just beginning to enjoy the intellectually stimulating conversation :-).

I have rolled like 7 weapons and 1 mech 1st or 2nd roll during the ECR's

I remember wasting 5.7k A-coins on the solis ECR which was pretty fustrating, but I got deathwalker in 2 spins. 1 with token, and 1 with 350 a-coins

yeah but it some times on the paid or event coins for draws gives you it on first try like i got death walker in one and berserker 16 in one so it must be the ones that you use with your currency that are rigged, i think. 

ps: i have never gotten anything with my in game currency.

Not really! As I said before, the ECRs work in the same way regardless of the approach you choose (meaning the Event Tokens or Resources). Only the probabilities matter.

Eventually people are going to have enough discussion on the crate probabilities and realize whenever you gamble the odds are against you. It only feels "rigged" because gambling isn't ever going to be "fair".

Most people will not have this bad luck. But outliers exist. It is unfair for them. So why don't we remove all gambling entirely? This "game" is marketed at children, shouldn't have any form of gambling or soft gambling.

i spend 1 token and 350 acoins and got deathwalker in  2 spins