It's just  mathematics, (or it should be) nothing else.

Over an an adequate period of time, so long as the chance approximates to 85%, it doesn't matter, except to the player,where in the sequence success happens.  

Like tossing a coin,with a fair balance, it's always 50% chance. 

The coin doesn't know, if,when, or how many times it's done it before. 

So what criteria gets it above 85%? I have several items at 85% and too scared to upgrade them after the last two failed.

Sorry I probaby was trying to answer from a different stand point, so didn't answer the question you asked. 

I think what I was trying to say was that 85  times out of a 100 , it works, and 15 will fail. 

Your response  jogged my memory a little about what has been written before.

I am largely unfamiliar with the actual process of upgrading and would need to relocate the part of the game which explains it.

However I think you can't improve the chances, doesn't the chance of success diminish from a guaranteed conversion, to less, the higher you progress with the upgrades?

If so then there is nothing you can do, because its fixed, and not like when forging equipment, where you can get 100% chance by upgrading the strarting materials.  

Of course you can get lucky and get legendary without starting with all legendary components but the chance of doing so drops according to the quality of the individual pieces, and will be fixed at the % given. 

Hi WDYWTNTF

I think you are missing the point of this and other threads.

As you say 85% means on average if you have 100 attempts 85 will succeed and 15 will fail. The problem appears to be that clans who monitor their 100 attempts are reporting far lower rates of success than 85.

Perhaps so, it is possible that just like in exams, there is a tendancy to answer the question desired, misread ,misunderstood, rather than the one really asked.

Perhaps the clans and players that are monitoring such,should be clearer,and say exactly what you did, rather than dressing up the facts in a story.

I am not able to analyse the program for accuracy, you would need a specialist for that, and only say what I did.

Sometimes people think, there must be something wrong, 'I should have got it by now ,but haven't.'

I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the data that has been either observed, or suggested,but would say ,is the sample used large to come up with a 25% success rate rather than the 85% suggested?

The other point I was hinting at, if not actually saying so  before, was that you could get a run of 100 failures, but as long this was balanced out over a bigger run, then it would still pass muster.

When dismantling dragon rings I observed long sequences of either Diamonds or Elixir other times more random, perhaps the way computers churn out results is misleading.

Lottery organizers have to prove that their draws are fair and unbiased over the long haul.

The owners are  the only ones that  have access to the data and we have to rely on them checking  and disclosing accurately. 

Well ,, I added up the number of hero item upgrades that I have done and got 116 in total but most of those were done at 90% or 100% chances of success with almost no failures. Very few upgrades were risked  at 85% and I am guessing around a third of those failed.

Hi WDYWTNTF, I am sorry that the gear upgrading functionality does not satisfy you. It was intended to make the game experience more exciting, but we appreciate all feedback you might have, it helps us to get better🙏

Your comment has been forwarded to the developers for the further consideration. Stay tuned😇

Thanks for doing that, but I do not understand what you have sent, because I do not know that I was complaining about the upgrading functionality, as I was only trying to write an answer to someone that was actually complaining..

However of course I will be interested to know what happens.

Before  I wrote  further, I consulted  a webpage , talking about chance, probability and odds.

It seems it is so confusing a topic that, some of the entries found in dictionaries can give inconsistant  defintions, so no wonder  that the non mathematician can be bewildered by it all.

So like the, do this task and get 'X'% bonus (and what is this % based on?) Is it really as big as it sounds?

Now the first question might be, what exactly is meant by 85% chance?

Now to answer what you last wrote.

It is in keeping with one aspect of my answer to Blackadder's comment.

How accurate are the complainees records, and further to this, how scientific is the data?

Though what they discovered may have  some merit and  be worth  triggering an investigation.

It's sounds like it is just a bunch of 'this is what happened to me', rather than an audit by a professional statistician.

For one thing, players cannot conduct multiple trials, and there is no need to continue, once you have done the upgrade,and also is the total number of attempts made on upgrades a reasonable sample for a reliable analysis?

One thing that could be done is, take a hundred cards mark them up pass and fail, then not forgetting to put back a fail card ,and reshuffle the deck,see how many draws it takes to get a pass card.Rinse and repeat.

Remembering, that although pass and fail cards give a specific outcome, each of its kind is unique, so drawing a fail card may not be the same one.

Presumably this is what the program is trying to emulate, maybe it does, maybe they believe it does, but we know sometimes the game gets bugged.

Forgot to add. 

My intial  comment was based on the fact, it was like you were waiting for the secret instructions such that you would be guaranteed  a 100% success rate with an 85% chance.

 Given how long it takes to gather the materials, If the program is bugged, it makes sense to wait, otherwise it  perhaps doesn't .

I have forwarded your feedback regarding the in-game balance😉

I was actually hoping that someone may have worked out what  I would need to do so that the upgrade I wanted to do would no longer be listed with an 85% chance of success but be listed as 90% or higher chance of success.

(That 5% difference seems to make a big difference in my success rate - which is also rather odd when you think about it). 

As I wrote,I don't think that you can get higher than 85%.

I thought it odd too, that people seem to be ok with 90%  working as it should, but not the 85%.

It would not seem to be logical that one functions correctly, and the other doesn't. but maybe this can happen.

The one good thing about you re raising the question and me trying to answer it is, that it has been referred to the tech team, so keep your fingers crossed.

Last points in connection  with this theme.

I remember some other thread connected with this issue, or similar topic, where someone more knowlegeable with the mathematics,had to  try explain the difference between the various ideas of doing something and not doing something after trying many times.

I used to play a game, where the successful outcome was only a 20% chance,and players would say, 'I have done it 20 times, I should have been successful now.'

Which again ties in with what Blackadder wrote.

If 100 different players tried the upgrade and reported a failure would they come up with it doesnt  work at all?

 and this time a 90% chance of success to level 5 failed and an 85% chance of success to level  6 succeeded  - russian roulette?

Yes, just chance.

It takes a long time for chance to even out.

But you could sacrifice to the Gods of Chance.  Burn a longboat or two or throw your favourite weapon into the sea - should work wonders.

another two goes at 85% chance of success, one did work and one didn't. It didn't cost me a long boat but it does take a lot of other hard to replace  items.

 (looking more like a 50% chance of success).

Propmted by an official post about upgrading gems, and this ongoing thread, I have looked for informatiion within my game.

There seems to be little information about upgrading gems in the gem store, and can still find nothing about upgrading equipment within my game, but perhaps at least in the latter,it's because I have nothing to upgrade at all, whereas I do have a few gems.

Perhaps the informatiion I did recall was only what I had read here.

https://plarium.com/forum/en/vikings-war-of-clans/666_game-database/205420_how-to-upgrade-hero-s-equipment-/

The comment there  from Griffin says this

"i do not like probabilitys that can be influenced. 95/100 is a 1 on every 20 chance things go wrong.

I'm certain the player is never gonna have 19 succesfull upgrades aginst 1 failed." 

Now to my points.

So having read this article it seems it gets even worse than the 85% rate mentioned here.

Also  you seem to be still caught up on two issues.

#1 It's not working as it should because I'm not getting the upgrade at the rate indicated based on a small sample.

#2 You have fallen for the I have to do this and quickly  for the fantastic bonuses ,otherwise it is a disaster.

The upgrades %'s do seem enormous, but like in the rest of the game what is the base ?

'X% of 0 is still 0, and not very much if the number is small.

Though I see the frustration and road block to more progress,the difference between success and failure seems to be 6%.

Also understand the cost in time and hero energy, but  how else are they going to keep you needing, and spending, to go after invaders and ghosts?

Agreed ..It is pure and simple greed on the part of plarium.I had 2 successive failures at level 8->9 on Ubba gear.It is frustrating cause you have to wait for the chiefs to re-appear and waste time just to get upgraded.There is no exciting dimension to those.Lets call it what it is - greed.

Well I believe 85% chance of success means 4 out of every 5 attempts should work. 

  ( Just 2 of my last 5 attempts at 85% succeeded, despite using max amounts allowed of Helheim fire. )

  I guess if Plarium advertised your chance of success at less than 60% a lot of people would not bother spending extra on coffers and hero energy trying to upgrade?

 Look, I am still playing the game, but I am not playing their game.(Well maybe a little.)

Which is all about selling you a pup without you realising it's a pup,and then you buying another, even if you found out you were sold a pup before.

I wish I understood the mathematics better myself and could explain it as well to those who fall for the sales pitch, not that in many cases it would make a blind bit of difference.

 The figures quoted in the upgrade section 85% here, seems a good bet, but is it? There is no guarantee of the preferred outcome.

Returning to the flipping a coin, just as in the upgrade ,each flip is independant of the last one, because to the coin there is no last one,and there is no last one to the upgrade either, the chance of pass or fail remains the same each time.

With the coin its heads or tails 50% chance, but if you want heads and keep getting tails, it doesn't mean the next time you will get the desired outcome, and if you don't ,that doesn't mean the coin's faulty or the quoted chance is wrong.

Also, I believe you are chasing miniscules of amount of benefit, there's a post about it somewhere on the forum which thought I did have saved, but can't find it.

You have some gear it's easy enough for you to test yourself, as I did,am doing, in connection to my post  which turned into a 'rant' about old ideas in general, but in particular refernce to attacking invaders.

I fell for the 'must get all the best legendary hero experience gear' which I eventually did.

Recently I tested what each piece gives individually and then by adding one piece at a time,by the time you get to the last piece the advantage is much reduced and the total given, is no where  near the sum of the individual pieces.

I can't  believe it is any different for the other gear. 

They know thhe carrot works, and they know there are players out there,rich enough to buy or acquire quickly anything they add in an upgrade.

The chance of failing sometimes, adds a bit of spice (game balance?)and the coffers filling.

I guess I am not as cynical as you. I don't believe Plarium's aim is to sell you a pup (although I did enjoy reading that). I believe they want to sell you a carrot that you enjoy, ..... so that you want to buy more carrots.

 Likewise I don't believe 85% chance of success = 85% chance of failure which I think is what you are suggesting  .... although my recent failures would suggest that is true of whatever logarithim Plarium is using for these upgrades. 

 (80% chance of success means that 4 out 5 attempts, or 800 of 1,000 attempts should be successful, .... unless Plarium is suggesting that you MAY have an  80% chance of success in which case anything can happen).