Don't get me wrong, I very much welcome the news that the new champs will not be Pay to Win.
I think that will keep more people in the game. It if goes pay to win for me it would likely be the final staw. I have talked to many others that who feel the same.
But it's still not a great solution. Random luck isn't a huge amount better than pay to win.
Played for 9 years, blood sweat and toil to build an army. Now there is an update that can multiple your offense by 134%. So one single update adds almost more bonus to troops than the entirety of everything I did previously added together (I saw almost because the original champs can add 248%, so there is one thing that is bigger).
That incredible game changing bonus won't be given out as a reward for hard work or application of skill knowledge and experience.
No - it will simply be bestowed upon people based on random luck. The lucky will get the "right" champ on their first drop. The most unluckly will be openning bonds for years to come.
So the success or failure in the game will largely boil simply to luck. What a horrible thing to do to s STRATEGY wargame. It makes no sense, undermines the whole game.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The boring maths in summary (in full in next post):
Chance of getting Tier V FoeHammer each bond applied 1 in 16. That is 1 in 4 chance to get Tier V and then 1 in 4 chance you will get the FoeHammer. That means:
- 6% of people will be the lucky few who get the champ on the first bond, in 4 months time.
- 36% of people won't get drop in 16 bonds, in 4 years time
- 20% of people won't get the drop in 25 bonds in over 7 yrs time
And that is the problem with random drops. The distribution of results is become exponentially wider the more rarer the drop is. 1 in 16 isn't actually that rare but the distribution still becomes extreme. So we get:
- 1% of people still don't have the drop in 72 bonds, in 20 years time
- 16 in 10,000 will have no drop after 100 bonds, in 28 years time