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Is 10X chance actually significant now that the hero roster is flooded with trash tier legendaries?

Is 10X chance actually significant now that the hero roster is flooded with trash tier legendaries?

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Dec 7, 2021, 03:3612/07/21
09/12/20
24

Is 10X chance actually significant now that the hero roster is flooded with trash tier legendaries?

As per subject line, given that when the 10x system was first implemented and until now there is no doubt that the champion roster has more than quadrupled...

Is 10x good enough?

I feel that given the dupe system hasn't done anything to reduce the chances of getting the same hero over and over again that they should really be either:

  1. making 10x events more like 20-40x the chance to get targetted legendaries (I would imagine getting a particular legendary is something like 0.5-2% depending on affinity)
  2. Combining 2x events with 10x events moving forward.

From a "jackpot" perspective, it's become obvious that the dupe system paired with the growing roster of heroes doesn't solve the issue, which is a diminishing jackpot value from the in game loterry system.

I'm expecting to see some player churn in the coming months.

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Dec 7, 2021, 04:1212/07/21
01/04/20
1698

I can submit this in our suggestion log if it's not already there. Good idea.

Dec 7, 2021, 07:3312/07/21
604

From reddit by BossBobRoss7:

"So with the recent summoning session that ScratchAK47 had where I watched that poor man blow an ungodly amount of moneys worth of void shards chasing Hedgemon, I figured I would do the maths on the bologna that is the games 10x Summoning Rate. 


So when the game first started doing 10x, I BELIEVE dwarves were already in the game (could be wrong). I went through and counted up the amount of OG Legendaries that were in the game at that time: 

15 Void Legendaries (originally) 

56 Non-Void Legendaries (originally) 

There are currently 110 Non-Void Legendaries in the game, however you cannot pull Aleksandr, Scyl, Ba Satha, Cleopterix, Gomlok, Varl, Vasal, Thea and Ninja from either any shard or sacred shards. 

There are also currently 36 Void Legendary champs, however you cannot pull Lydia, Ramantu or Urost from shards so that gives us a new total of: 

33 Pullable Void Legendaries (currently) 

101 Pullable Non-Void Legendaries from Sacred Shards (currently) 

103 Pullable Non-Void Legendaries from Ancient Shards (currently) 

So in case this information isn't enough already to determine how much of a scam 10x summons are, I'll continue. I will do all the math as if there is 10x on only ONE champion as it makes the math quicker and easier. Adding extra champs into the 10x only makes your chance of getting a specific champion that much worse and only slightly increases your chance of getting ANY of the 10x targets. 

Previous Chance of a Lego Champ Pulled Being the 10x Target: 

Void 44% 

Non-Void 16.6% 

Current Chance of a Lego Champ Pulled Being the 10x Target: 

Void 25.6% Non-Void (Sacred Shard) 9.9% 

Non-Void (Ancient Shard) 9.7%

Dec 7, 2021, 07:4312/07/21
04/02/19
200

To summarise - no, it's a marginal increase due to the amount of legendaries in the game and designed (as usual) to part you from your money trying

Dec 7, 2021, 16:2212/07/21
05/03/20
205
forrestleigh

To summarise - no, it's a marginal increase due to the amount of legendaries in the game and designed (as usual) to part you from your money trying

I think you are being quite generous in your statement.  When you say marginally; don't you mean the odds were almost cut in half?  Hardly a trivial amount and definitely not "marginally" increased.

Again; they nearly cut the odds in half making it much more difficult to obtain legos; but with the additions of all the other new (and purportedly worthless) legos, the odds of getting a good lego have diminished substantially.
 

Another obvious attempt to greatly increase profit margins.  They grossed over $300 million last year and nearlyt $600 million lifetime, but they obviously seem to NEED more.  This is just another horrid demonstration of corporate greed, enough is never enough... 

This is exactly why I uninstalled the game.  I saw the money grabs ramping up and I was done spending on the game for very little return.  As soon as I saw that the money grabs didn't coincide with and game fixes; I uninstalled.

Dec 7, 2021, 17:3112/07/21
06/20/19
2181

Just Notes: First, let me just say I tend to get distressed when opinions regarding statistical questions are based on 'my feeling.'  I get that, but that's why we have statistics.  And I don't dispute that a company is doing whatever they can to increase profit margins.  I thought that's what people in capitalist societies do. And I get that people feel the need to 'open their wallet' when they see something shiny.  

I'd also note that plarium has run at least a few concurrent 2x/10x events.  They also have run a few 100% garanteed targetted champ events, although most people would not save up for these and in that case would have to spend money.

Any way, I thought on it and it seems like if the increase in the number of available champs dilutes the pool and that decreases the odds of getting the specific targetted champ, wouldn't that also reduce the chance of getting that same champ any time?  So what exactly is the chance of getting a specifc leggo during a 2x event compared to getting that same leggo during a 10x event, as the number of available leggos increases?

I ran the numbers back when there where 82 non-void legendaries.  I don't know off hand how many there are now but it really doesn't matter, I'll just show the results for pools of 50, 75, and 100 available legendaries for illustrative purposes.

These numbers are for sacred shards.

Number of non-void legendaries        50           75             100

Odds of pulling specific leggo, 2x      0.32%     0.21%       0.16%

Odd of pulling specific leggo, 10x       1.35%    0.95%        0.74%

Odd of specific leggo 10x/2x               4.24%     4.46%       4.59%


Yes the odds obviously go down when increasing the number of available leggos, but they go down relatively faster in the 2x events (0.32% to 0.16% or 50%, cut in half) than in 10x events (1.35% ro 0.74% or a 45% reduction). In practicle terms it's basically a wash.

But what is telling is that the odds of getting say, Dutchess, is actually significantly better during a 10x event than during a 2x event as the pool of available leggos increases.

At 50 available champs you you have only approximatley 4 1/4 better odds of pulling her during the 10x than the 2x, but as the pool increases to 100 you have about a 4 and 6/10 better odds diring the 10x verses the 2x.


If one wants to have a conversation that plarium should just stop making new champs, that's a different conversation.  If there were only 10 leggos, everyone would have them all and the discussion would be over.  With each new champ we are all getting further away from ever drawing Dutchess or any other champ.  But the argument that 10x is no longer relevent would basically be saying 2x is no longer relevent and just opening shards outside of events is no longer relevent.

As it becomes increasing unlikely to get specific champs, it does so faster with no event and with 2x events.  10x even certainly remain statistically significant.



Dec 7, 2021, 18:1812/07/21
05/12/20
57

Few days ago I saw a video ( easy to find if u look for scam, 10x , Hegemon)- 560+ void shards used on 10x for Hegemon 

Scarry movie :)))

Not only that was no Hegemon but is sad to see what you can get in Raid from shards worthing more than 5k euro ( if u buy all of them ) 

Whatch the video and after is not really needed to discuss if 10x worh something !!!!

Dec 7, 2021, 20:0312/07/21
09/12/20
24

 I think there was one for murderinc where he pulled 770 shards for a Saudi oil prince and didn't get hege in the 10x event. There were 7 legendary pulls which is good odds for a non 2x but none were hege.

I've personally experienced this sort of outcome in other 10x event and have come to realise they don't work especially given that we don't know the exact odds 

Dec 7, 2021, 20:1312/07/21
09/12/20
24

Just commenting on Angwil, they should stop releasing new legendaries until the trash tier legendaries have been improved to be in line with other legendary heroes. They can't go and nerf urogrim under the excuse he's better than legendary heroes while bad legendary heroes exist and haven't been balanced upwards 

Dec 8, 2021, 06:0712/08/21
10/30/21
50

It  doesnt  matter,  since  some  of  the  best  champs  have  JUST  had  10x  if  you  dont  have  one,  Wait  Shadow  Legends!   :P

Dec 9, 2021, 18:4912/09/21
06/20/19
2181

You get your wish, they are combining 2x with 10x this weekend for at least the 3rd time this year.

harleQuinnModerator
Dec 9, 2021, 19:0512/09/21
02/24/19
7821
Angwil

You get your wish, they are combining 2x with 10x this weekend for at least the 3rd time this year.

Gonna be tough not to pull the voids. Do I want to shoot for Krisk, or make sure I have enough shards for the fusion? Tough choices over here in NoSpendland.

Dec 10, 2021, 10:4112/10/21
06/20/19
2181
harleQuinn

Gonna be tough not to pull the voids. Do I want to shoot for Krisk, or make sure I have enough shards for the fusion? Tough choices over here in NoSpendland.

I was thinking exactly the same thing; go for ursuga, Nekhret, or wait for the fusion.  On one hand I'd love Nekhret (even Ursuga but not over Nekhret) but the odds of that are slim at best with only 12 sacreds.  On the other hand we don't know what the fusion will be and it's not a sure thing, but pretty darn close if you try at this point in my account.

One thing I tell myself is even out of a target event, every shard still has the potential to pull Nekhret lol.

Dec 10, 2021, 13:0612/10/21
10/15/20
869

It dilutes the pool to the point x10 is limited in effectiveness for sure

I fell for it this weekend though with an x2 and x10 both on i pulled 19 voids and got 1 trash epic (fellhammer) and one mediocre epic i will never use (ursala)

Really annoyed with myself, best to save shards for guaranteed lego events.

Dec 10, 2021, 14:0612/10/21
10/15/20
2041
trevor.wilson

It dilutes the pool to the point x10 is limited in effectiveness for sure

I fell for it this weekend though with an x2 and x10 both on i pulled 19 voids and got 1 trash epic (fellhammer) and one mediocre epic i will never use (ursala)

Really annoyed with myself, best to save shards for guaranteed lego events.

I also pulled Fellhammer today. 20 shards, and my account was flooded with Dwarves: Fellhammer, Gala, Dazdurk.

Did you complete Banner Lords crypt allready? Ursala seems to be far better than mediocre for that.

Dec 10, 2021, 19:4612/10/21
10/15/20
869
Skadi

I also pulled Fellhammer today. 20 shards, and my account was flooded with Dwarves: Fellhammer, Gala, Dazdurk.

Did you complete Banner Lords crypt allready? Ursala seems to be far better than mediocre for that.

Yeh just skinwalkers left, might be useful for a third team in hydra maybe, but i wish i had not pulled