Just Notes: First, let me just say I tend to get distressed when opinions regarding statistical questions are based on 'my feeling.' I get that, but that's why we have statistics. And I don't dispute that a company is doing whatever they can to increase profit margins. I thought that's what people in capitalist societies do. And I get that people feel the need to 'open their wallet' when they see something shiny.
I'd also note that plarium has run at least a few concurrent 2x/10x events. They also have run a few 100% garanteed targetted champ events, although most people would not save up for these and in that case would have to spend money.
Any way, I thought on it and it seems like if the increase in the number of available champs dilutes the pool and that decreases the odds of getting the specific targetted champ, wouldn't that also reduce the chance of getting that same champ any time? So what exactly is the chance of getting a specifc leggo during a 2x event compared to getting that same leggo during a 10x event, as the number of available leggos increases?
I ran the numbers back when there where 82 non-void legendaries. I don't know off hand how many there are now but it really doesn't matter, I'll just show the results for pools of 50, 75, and 100 available legendaries for illustrative purposes.
These numbers are for sacred shards.
Number of non-void legendaries 50 75 100
Odds of pulling specific leggo, 2x 0.32% 0.21% 0.16%
Odd of pulling specific leggo, 10x 1.35% 0.95% 0.74%
Odd of specific leggo 10x/2x 4.24% 4.46% 4.59%
Yes the odds obviously go down when increasing the number of available leggos, but they go down relatively faster in the 2x events (0.32% to 0.16% or 50%, cut in half) than in 10x events (1.35% ro 0.74% or a 45% reduction). In practicle terms it's basically a wash.
But what is telling is that the odds of getting say, Dutchess, is actually significantly better during a 10x event than during a 2x event as the pool of available leggos increases.
At 50 available champs you you have only approximatley 4 1/4 better odds of pulling her during the 10x than the 2x, but as the pool increases to 100 you have about a 4 and 6/10 better odds diring the 10x verses the 2x.
If one wants to have a conversation that plarium should just stop making new champs, that's a different conversation. If there were only 10 leggos, everyone would have them all and the discussion would be over. With each new champ we are all getting further away from ever drawing Dutchess or any other champ. But the argument that 10x is no longer relevent would basically be saying 2x is no longer relevent and just opening shards outside of events is no longer relevent.
As it becomes increasing unlikely to get specific champs, it does so faster with no event and with 2x events. 10x even certainly remain statistically significant.