Weak hits only happen if you are weak affinity - IE, for example, you're blue and attacking red.

Likewise, strong hits only happen against strong affinity - you're blue and attacking green.

Critical hits are independent of the above. The calculus, as far as I'm aware, is to first check if the hit is strong or weak. Weak hits can never be critical. When you're weak affinity, your crit rate is also capped at 85%. So, I believe if you're weak affinity and have 85% crit rate, your crit chance will become:

(1 - 0.3) = 0.7 * 0.85 = 60%.

Or, put another way, 30% of your hits would be weak hits, 60% would be crits, and 10% would be normal hits.

But I'm strong affinity and still getting a LOT of weak hits, and I don't think I ever even get standard hits. It's only either crits or weak no matter what

Are you sure you observed weak hits vs. weak affinity? They have the word "weak" popping up in white letters. Did you really observe exactly this? That shouldn't happen. Even reaction gear makes a normal hit from a critical. I don't see any game mechanic that should cause weak hits vs. weak affinity.

It did just occur to me that maybe my understanding is flawed like - I'm under the impression that the color of damage text indicates the type as in: (Red = Weak), (White = Standard), (Yellow = Critical). 

Wow, yeah, I can't believe I missed this. After looking up what the color of text means, I found this: 

- white - weak hit (see above for description)

- red - normal hit

- yellow - crit hit (extra dmg depending on champion stats)

- purple - strong hit (opposed to weak), some extra dmg, not sure if it gives any other bonus

- light blue - shield absorbed dmg (only if target have shield buff on them)

- green - heal (how much HP is restored), available on some skills, masteries and lifesteal gear set

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I feel dumb xD thanks for the replies!

The only question that I am not certain about is - can a strong hit be critical? I assume the answer is yes, but I so rarely pay attention to affinity bonuses that I'm not sure.

Also - to answer your question - strong hits confer a 30% damage bonus.

Strong  hits  is  when  you  attack  an  affinity  you  are  strong  against  but  it  is  still  not  critical  as  I  am  aware.

i'm currently fighting  getting my but kicked by the shogun level 11-spirit afinity. I'm using Dark Kael magic afinity w/ 95% crit, Yannica spirit afinity w/ 117% crit, Cillian the Lucky magic afinity w/ 109%crit, Ronda magic afinity with 118%crit, Runekeeper Dazdurk void afinity w/ 18% crit.  3/4ths or more of my attacks are weak hits so even with 3star ascended champions his counter stays at 30 from the 2nd attack on. At best i get a normal or crit every 4th hit from everyone EXCEPT Runekeeper. He(runekeeper) has yet to get a weak hit in 9 attempts.  I should be at an afinity advantage with everyone except Yannica and Runekeeper. meaning if what yall said is still true, then the only ones in this group that should be able to make a weak hit are Yannica and Runekeeper.  In practice this is definately NOT whats happened. i can't find anything written that says the weak hit mechanic has changed since this first came up so I'm assuming its something unique to the shogun? anyone else seen this or have an explanaion?

The Enfeeble debuff he's placing turns all hits from those champs into weak ones. 

From the Boss Guide page in game: 

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