All Categories

Plarium's Idea of a "Drop Frenzy"

Plarium's Idea of a "Drop Frenzy"

Search
Apr 29, 2021, 07:2004/29/21
06/29/20
12

Plarium's Idea of a "Drop Frenzy"

A "Drop Frenzy" of 2X Stun Gear. Seriously!?!?


i


Views
56
Comments
19
Comments
Apr 29, 2021, 07:3504/29/21
01/31/21
200

If this is simalr to 2x shards, possibly 2x for stun set chance in fom 1% to 2% :)

Apr 29, 2021, 08:0904/29/21
09/19/20
178

This is why i hate when some try hard pops on here and starts trying to look cool by posting probability equations.....

You are having to trust that plarium are even telling the truth about their %% because there is literally no proof

Apr 29, 2021, 08:2104/29/21
01/31/21
200

We can assume that single run is 100% then you have chance to get one of 13 elements so it could be 7,6% for each element, but dont think it is like that. Then if they doubled one element it will be around 14% chance to drop it per run

Apr 29, 2021, 09:3904/29/21
02/13/21
823
tanthil

We can assume that single run is 100% then you have chance to get one of 13 elements so it could be 7,6% for each element, but dont think it is like that. Then if they doubled one element it will be around 14% chance to drop it per run

Yes, that's pretty much how I interpret this as well.  In other words, the chances may be doubled, but double of a low number is still quite low, and it doesn't mean you will start to see these every 5 runs

Apr 29, 2021, 10:0404/29/21
01/31/21
200

2x is so misleading in this game, to check it to some degree you need to do 100 runs and then i think you should have arund 10 stun artefacts.

For short runs  (like 10 or 30 runs) 2x is not noticable

they should do 25x or 35x so then you will notice the difference in short runs as well

Apr 29, 2021, 10:5104/29/21
07/05/19
747
SpareACC1

This is why i hate when some try hard pops on here and starts trying to look cool by posting probability equations.....

You are having to trust that plarium are even telling the truth about their %% because there is literally no proof

That's why I still try to encourage people to actually make an open spreadsheet to catalogue drop rates for the community, because without any data to counter Plarium's statement, people have no real argument, hence you can only trust Plarium's statement.

And no, your post about your bad streak is not a good enough data, you can't calculate the probability on the game the size of raif just from 1 account's snipet in time. I have my criticism to Plarium, but on the part of pull chances, the community here never really raly to catalogue their pulls as a community (not just per account) to dispute Plarium

Apr 29, 2021, 12:4404/29/21
06/27/20
304

It's called "Drop Frenzy". It drops Frenzy :)

Apr 29, 2021, 13:0704/29/21
05/16/19
726
lee.ozz.0213

That's why I still try to encourage people to actually make an open spreadsheet to catalogue drop rates for the community, because without any data to counter Plarium's statement, people have no real argument, hence you can only trust Plarium's statement.

And no, your post about your bad streak is not a good enough data, you can't calculate the probability on the game the size of raif just from 1 account's snipet in time. I have my criticism to Plarium, but on the part of pull chances, the community here never really raly to catalogue their pulls as a community (not just per account) to dispute Plarium

Exactly this. The strong clan clusters have thorough spreadsheets about these kinds of things and the posted probabilities always check out. Even then, one can still be skeptic about the data and we'd still ultimately have to trust Plarium. 

Everyone gets good hauls, and you hardly see them being posted but the confirmation bias to bad RNG is more likely to be reinforced with the greater number of people venting. Just keep in mind that there are 8 other sets in Fire Knight, and the Drop boost doesn't mean Stun sets are what you'll get all of the time. 


Apr 29, 2021, 17:4004/29/21
04/18/19
205

you can NOT trust Statistics ...  

If 100 people Flip a Coin 100 times it Will NOT do a 50% Heads / Tails Split

If a 1000 People flip a Coin 1000 times it WILL NOT do a 50% split Heads/Tails

BUT ON AVERAGE the Probability of One person Flipping a Coin 20 times

has a Fairly good chance of being a 50/50 Split one in 20 repeats

NOW, equate this to Fire Knight  you have to add in THIRTEEN MORE VARABLES

So you Chances of getting a STUN Piece is 1 in 13 x 2 / 1000 +12 = XY

where X is 0.002 and Y is 2300/547987

Apr 29, 2021, 19:4504/29/21
09/19/20
178

No matter what it seems someome will always try to prove that everything is legit with a stat

Apr 29, 2021, 20:1804/29/21
Apr 29, 2021, 20:23(edited)
04/12/21
499
RoseRoyal

Huh, what do you mean "odds do not apply to any one account"? 

You will have to go through that link I posted, why someone opened 319 blue shards and did not get a lego.  Apparantly "odds" posted in the game apply across the board and not to any individual.

For example:

Aaaah but at the scale of statistics, 300 is such a low number, and you're assuming that 300 count is calculated all on your account instead of the whole population of players.

Say it does give players a legendary in every 100th pulls, you think that 100th pull will be calculated per account? No the calculation is for the whole population, thus, the spread!

Say there's 100 people like you, each pulling 300 shards. That's 30,000 pulls, probability says there's a chance of 300 legendaries in that whole pull, my question do you really honestly think the spread of that 300 legendaries are spread equally among those 100 players?


So yes, GAMBLER'S FALLACY, because you think that you pulled enough shards, you think you deserve a legendary (or 3), while in reality the probability is not being counted per account, but as the whole population.


That's why there's people who got 2 legendaries in as less as 10 pulls, while others can pull hundreds of times without getting a single legendary.


As long as the whole population pull shows around 1% legendary population, the system doesn't care about the spread of the legendary. 

WraithModerator
Apr 29, 2021, 20:5304/29/21
07/26/19
138

Out of 30 battles, I only got 3 i believe... decided to level champs then farm stun gear since the 2x seemed low. Now remember, just cause its 2x doesn't mean its a 50/50. You have to realize there are like 9 other sets that 

Apr 29, 2021, 21:2104/29/21
05/24/19
320

Look on the bright side you still got plenty of legendary crit damage pieces, as well as immunity and savage which will be great down the road for your account provided the stats are good :) 

Apr 30, 2021, 00:2504/30/21
07/28/20
29

It's just a gimmick to get you to spend more time and energy online. Doubt the chances were even increased to begin with. There is literally no way to tell and no one to police them anyway

Apr 30, 2021, 00:4604/30/21
01/29/20
2

Ima get  blocked  again  for  commenting  on  an  obvious  cash  grab    EVERYTHING  IN  THIS  GAME  IS  REVENUE  MOTIVATED     There  are  no  free  gifts  to  you  its  all  a  grind  because  in  the  end  you  need  energy..  youll  soend  eventually  or  you  wont  play  more  than  20  minutes  F2P  doesnt  exist  in  this  game    not  if  your  playing  it  Prove  me  a  total  f2p  act  that  hasnt  spent  1$  ill  show  you  a  2  year  old  lvl  25  act..  its  all  rigged  i  spend  about  20$  a  month  on  this  garbage  and  thats  to  much  

Apr 30, 2021, 01:0104/30/21
Apr 30, 2021, 01:47(edited)
07/05/19
747
SpareACC1

No matter what it seems someome will always try to prove that everything is legit with a stat

Because if you know your statistics, these things usually do check out.

Apr 30, 2021, 01:2404/30/21
06/29/20
12

Must be a slow day in 'Moderator World'. Not often you get 3 commenting on the one post in such as short time. At least none of them said "It's just RNG" 😂. Some interesting comments on the spread of the odds, though. If nothing else, I've learnt something new.