That's just RNG.
Sometimes you get lucky you get more than 16%, sometimes you get less. The 1%/16% odds apply to each shard you pull anyway, not to the whole bunch you pull overall.
Personally, I got exactly what the I was /supposed to get statistically/. (Pulled 97 shards: 1 leggo, 16 epics)
Aardvark said:
Just drew 5 epics out of 74 ancient shards - 6.8%, expected value at proper rate of 16% would have been 11.4 epics. Bad luck for me, or odds not doubled as intended for event? Can anybody else share their large(ish) opening results for comparison?
I've been in many many many many gacha games forums, and every "rate up" event on any of those games, this kind of post always comes up without fail.
So let's get this one thing straight, probability does not mean you will have the exact outcome of result by multiplying the probability chance to the effort done, that is what is called a GAMBLER'S FALLACY (explanation here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy)
Second the rate of 16% is the rate of ALL PULLS TAKEN BY ALL OF PLAYERS, in a perfect world that rate would be distributed equally to all players, but no! Like any other probability the distribution most likely would not be equal, hence because you only got 5 epics out of 74 pulls, someone out there gets 19 epics from their 74 pulls, bringing the rate of 16% of ALL PULLS to be true (5 epics you got + 19 they got divided by 2 sets of 74 pulls you both do)
so yeah... that's how chances in probability work
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
You were quite unlucky. 98.47% of players get more than 5 epics from 74 pulls.
I've opened between 50 and 60 shards and got 8 epics and 1 legendary (warchief...). There is also Skullcrusher, so I'm happy.
OzzLee said:
I've been in many many many many gacha games forums, and every "rate up" event on any of those games, this kind of post always comes up without fail.
So let's get this one thing straight, probability does not mean you will have the exact outcome of result by multiplying the probability chance to the effort done, that is what is called a GAMBLER'S FALLACY (explanation here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy)
I think the main reason why these posts always come up is that people who got far less than expected are a lot more likely to post results whan those who got normal outcome.
No harm done by asking. It could be a bug.
From the topic starter's perspective, the event "few epics dropped" happened. If there is no bug, probability of this event is 1.5%. If there is a bug, it's 100% (not really, but still high). When you get that 1.5% outcome, posterior probability that "there was a bug" is much higher than prior probability that "there was a bug".
A classical problem. There are 2 coins: one is fair, the other is rigged and always drops heads up. You got one at random and flipped it. Heads showed up. What is the probability that you got rigged coin? Hint: it's not 1/2.
This topic established that it was not a bug.
JoinME said:
I opened 105 ancients today. I did not count the epics, but I got Rotos and Foli. Both are new.
Congratulations!
Pretty good explanation. RNG can be impressively good (2 leggos in 10 shards) or impressively bad (0 leggos in 100 shards and 8 epics). Even being very lucky, for example, getting 5 leggos in 100 shards, you can be "not that lucky" if those leggos are 'useless'.Aardvark said:
Just drew 5 epics out of 74 ancient shards - 6.8%, expected value at proper rate of 16% would have been 11.4 epics. Bad luck for me, or odds not doubled as intended for event? Can anybody else share their large(ish) opening results for comparison?I've been in many many many many gacha games forums, and every "rate up" event on any of those games, this kind of post always comes up without fail.
So let's get this one thing straight, probability does not mean you will have the exact outcome of result by multiplying the probability chance to the effort done, that is what is called a GAMBLER'S FALLACY (explanation here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy)
Second the rate of 16% is the rate of ALL PULLS TAKEN BY ALL OF PLAYERS, in a perfect world that rate would be distributed equally to all players, but no! Like any other probability the distribution most likely would not be equal, hence because you only got 5 epics out of 74 pulls, someone out there gets 19 epics from their 74 pulls, bringing the rate of 16% of ALL PULLS to be true (5 epics you got + 19 they got divided by 2 sets of 74 pulls you both do)
so yeah... that's how chances in probability work
SunnyRay said:
I think the main reason why these posts always come up is that people who got far less than expected are a lot more likely to post results whan those who got normal outcome.
No harm done by asking. It could be a bug.
From the topic starter's perspective, the event "few epics dropped" happened. If there is no bug, probability of this event is 1.5%. If there is a bug, it's 100% (not really, but still high). When you get that 1.5% outcome, posterior probability that "there was a bug" is much higher than prior probability that "there was a bug".
A classical problem. There are 2 coins: one is fair, the other is rigged and always drops heads up. You got one at random and flipped it. Heads showed up. What is the probability that you got rigged coin? Hint: it's not 1/2.
This topic established that it was not a bug.
I'm just trying to raise awareness, that statistics are not always going to be by your side in these kind of pulls, that getting the WORSE outcome in any pulls should be EXPECTED.
And I have said this in other threads, if any people wants to check if there's a shanenigans on Plarium's side, then they should record their pulls and corroborate with other people in recording their pulls. The more sample size the more that the "real" drop rate would be found.
And this is hardly something new, other forums I have been into, usually have that one guy who would initiate this kind of community effort to check on the real drop rate, if it's accurate to the advertised rate or not. I actually am kinda surprised that nobody here actually tried to initiate such effort
I think,. I was extremely lucky.
I opened about 200 shards...
I got Bad-El, Elder Skarg (Dupe), Basileus, Astralith and about 40 rares, including Stag Knight and Miscreated Monster
OzzLee said:
And this is hardly something new, other forums I have been into, usually have that one guy who would initiate this kind of community effort to check on the real drop rate, if it's accurate to the advertised rate or not. I actually am kinda surprised that nobody here actually tried to initiate such effort
I'm surprised by the lack of effort in deciphering different mechanics of the game like dungeon drop rates, defense mitigation or skill multipliers. Everyone does character guides and reviews, but nothing on core mechanics. There are some on reddit, but most of them are far from complete and hard to find. I'd expect a wiki with all the numbers and formulae for a popular game that's around for more that two years. Could be that I'm bad at search though. Or I'm fooled by all the advertising, and the game is not that popular.
I meat stuff like this (very cool one, btw! somewhat outdated by removal of rare books): https://www.reddit.com/r/RaidShadowLegends/comments/huwdvh/clan_boss_chest_loot_table_and_drop_chance_for/
