Bam said:

In this last summoning boost, ancient shards, I stupidly bought multiple packs to obtain ancient shards. Only to find after opening up roughly 100 shards to find a handful of epics and the rest are rares. So for the boost to be a “1%” chance, is false. Do yourself a favor and spend little to no money on this game. I get everything is based on probability but this was just BS, watching a ton of ppl pulling double and sometimes triple legendaries. 

I just am kinda surprised noone here is making a spreadsheet for the pulls to see if the advertised probability is correct or not.

The thing about probability is the 1% usually is not spread equally. What I mean is, there's 10m download for this game, let's just assume there's 50% active players.

That means there's 5 mil players, let's assume each are pulling 100 times at the same time. There's 500 million pulls, 1% probability means there's supposed to be 5 million legendaries getting pulled.

As long as there's around 5 million legendaries getting pulled then the advertised chance is correct, it doesn't need to have the pulls to be spread evenly to each player. Meaning, just because everyone is pulling 100 times doesn't mean everyone is getting 1 legendaries.

If in that 5 mil players, say 1 million actually gets 2 legendaries that means there's around 1 mil players who don't get any legendaries at all, that's why there's a difference between the probability and the spread of the outcome.

So that is why I always advise that when you pull in this kind of gacha games, always assume you will get the worse possible outcome.

And yeah, surprised that not a single one of the regular forum goers make a google doc spreadsheet about the pulls outcome.

In any other game forum of these kinds of game, I usually find someone who would make an open spreadsheet account so people can post their pulls results and check if the advertised chance is correct or not.

But again, probability does not equate to equal spread.

Bam said:

In this last summoning boost, ancient shards, I stupidly bought multiple packs to obtain ancient shards. Only to find after opening up roughly 100 shards to find a handful of epics and the rest are rares. So for the boost to be a “1%” chance, is false. Do yourself a favor and spend little to no money on this game. I get everything is based on probability but this was just BS, watching a ton of ppl pulling double and sometimes triple legendaries. 

Lousy players always tell you fail, they are either not pull any shards or steal all your lucks, that is why I call them lousy.

I pulled blue shards in x2 event very very soon, some twenty minutes when even started, I pulled about 40 shards and got 1 lego, 8-10 epic, the rate is high, but I store full champs in inventory, I even bought 210th, 220th, 230th space cost nearly 1000 gems to store them.

So I waited. THAT WAS MY BIG MISTAKE!!!!!

Do you remember there were 2-5 times the game got update after 2x event ? Plarium update to fix that good rate. Yes, they did that.

After that I pulled 60 more blue shards and the rate is super low, for each 20 blue shards I got 1 or 2 epic, total 60 blue shards I got about 4 epic, 0 legos. 

Bam said:

I see your point here, I am surprised too that no one has taken the time to do a breakdown of their pulls. I was under the impression that percent was per account. Not for the entire realm of raid pulling. It is very cumbersome to continue to spend money when you get the short end of the stick. But like you said alway expect the worse, so now I will never make that same mistake of spending $100+ on packs and hope to persuade other people into doing the same. 

Even if you count the probability as per account, it still doesn't equate to equal spread.

What I mean is that you can pull 1000 times, if we take 1% probability it doesn't mean that the legendary will come in each 100 pulls you do.

You could have no legendaries at all in the first 500 pulls, and then get 6 legendaries in the 6th 100 pulls, then get no legendaries at all in 7th and 8th 100 pulls and get 3 in the 9th 100 pull, and then get 1 legendary in the 10th 100 pulls.

It could have any spread imaginable, of course the thing about probability it's a large numbers game, the bigger the pool of number, the more that your outcome to be closer to the stated probability. There's no actual limit to the number of when your account will actually be close to that probability.

You could end up pulling 9900 times and get no Legendaries at all, and then you get all 100 legendaries at your 100th 100 pull.

What you need to remember about this kind of probability is that it's always get reset every time you do a pull.

What does that mean?

Let's say with that 1% chance, we have a 100 sided die, in each face there's a number from 1-100. Let's assume that if you get the die to show number 100 is when you get the legendary, every time you roll, your chance of pulling #100 is always 1/100! 

When your die roll showed number 2 it doesn't remove the number 2 from the die. So even if the probability of you getting #100 is 1/100, it doesn't mean that you'll always get #100 in 100 roll.

So basically, know your math, and you'll understand that your chance is still up against the spread.

But it is not all bad news, the extreme reverse can also be true, that means in 1000 pulls, you can get all 10 legendaries on your 1st 100 pulls.

Bam said:

I see your point here, I am surprised too that no one has taken the time to do a breakdown of their pulls. I was under the impression that percent was per account. Not for the entire realm of raid pulling. It is very cumbersome to continue to spend money when you get the short end of the stick. But like you said alway expect the worse, so now I will never make that same mistake of spending $100+ on packs and hope to persuade other people into doing the same. 

You may never read what I wrote before. 

This game, for shards, I divide it in 3 phases.

1st phase from launched to 11/2019: that shard pulls were very easy, everyone could have S rank champs like Valkyrie, Madame Serris, Skullcrown, Lilitu, Shazam, ... you may have from 4-8 S ranks champs with $100 (if you spend).

2nd phase from 12/2019 to 4/2020: shard pulls were harder, not easy to earn S rank champs anymore, but if you spend double, like $200, you still can have several S ranks champs. 

3rd phase from May 2020 till later: shard pulls are hard to earn S rank champs, you could spend $200 to earn legend but most of them are A, B, C ranks. If you really really want 4-8 S ranks champ like 1st phase players, you have to spend $400 - $1000. Some one got luck ?  Yes, there are players with super luck, but 90% of all 3rd phase players will have to spend that much to earn S-rank champs.

Ahhhh I see where your going with this Ozzlee, ok that does make it alittle more understandable, so Ident20 would you say it’s better to use all the shards at one time, verses using 30 here and wait then use another 30 then wait... etc also what’s ur thoughts on using one at a time or doing 10x at time? Possibly one is better to pull a legendary or nah? 

Bam said:

Ahhhh I see where your going with this Ozzlee, ok that does make it alittle more understandable, so Ident20 would you say it’s better to use all the shards at one time, verses using 30 here and wait then use another 30 then wait... etc also what’s ur thoughts on using one at a time or doing 10x at time? Possibly one is better to pull a legendary or nah? 

The thing with pulls, in any of these gacha games.... they're just a numbers game. The more you pull the more likely you'll get something good, and that's the only thing paying player have in advantage to F2P, paying players have more chance in pull because they buy more pulls, but the probability is still the same to both type of players.

If I go back to the 100 sided die parable, the free players can only roll the die once, while paying players can buy more rolling chances. So even if the probability of both player are the same on them landing the #100, who do you think got more chance to get that #100? The player who can only roll the die once? Or the player that can pay the die owner so he can roll the die 100 times?

And as any other gacha games the probability to getting a specific outcome becomes harder as time goes by, because as time goes by, the pool of results are getting bigger. 

Lets say you want to get Valkyrie, you don't want just a legendary, but you want a specific legendary, you want Valkyrie.

Why is it easier to get Valkyrie pre 2019? Well we go back to the probability... so the probability to get legendaries in a 2x event for a blue shard doesn't change, they're still 1% from long time a go to now, but the probability of getting a Valkyrie have significantly decrease from then to now. Why? Because now there's more legendaries than way back then in pre 2019, or as Ident20 say at phase 1.

How does that work? Let's again go back to the die parable.

So now you're lucky, your die roll have landed on #100, you get a legendary! Now the owner handed you another die for you to roll to decide what legendary you will get, it's now a 50 sided die, and if you want Valkyrie, you need the die to roll onto #25

so in this imaginary scenario, your chances of landing a legendary is 1/100, but to get a specific legendary, Valkyrie, your probability is now 1/5.000

Because you have to roll 2 different dies, 1 to determine the champion rarity (a 100 sided die), and 2 to determine which exact champion to get (a 50 sided die).

Lets assume after 2 years, now the die owner adds just 5 more new legendaries, how's your chances to win a Valkyrie now?

Okay you roll the 100 sided die, CONGRATS! You get #100, you get a legendary. So the owner give you a new die, but this time the die is a 55 sided die, because now there's 55 legendary champions in this imaginary scenario, 5 more compared to 2 years ago. You still need to land on #25 to get a Valkyrie, but because it's now a 55 sided die, you probability of winning a Valkyrie have nose dived to 1/5.500

And that is why after years in any gacha games the probability to get a specific result would dwindle over time.

But that's not what you want to know, what you want to know is it better to pull on 2x event or 10x event, correct?

To put it simply, if you understand the math of what they're offering, if you just want a legendary any Legendaries at all, then 2x event is better.

But if you want a specific champion, the 10x event is better, of course you need to check on the list if your specific desired champion is in that 10x boost

I have been playing for a bit over 6 months.  I am not a whale, but I certainly land firmly in the Dolphin category (at around $60/month spent).  I save most shards for 2X events because that will give the best odds of building your Army of Epics & Legos.  I will sometimes pull shards during a 10X if there is someone that I really want, but only a few at a time.  When we hit a 2X event, I pull all the shards I have of the boosted variety.  In a 2X event, you have a 17% chance of getting something better than a Rare (16% Epic  & 1% Lego).  17% equates roughly to 1 out of 6 (or 1 out of 5.88 precisely).  In my experience, these rates are realistic, and anyone telling you that the boost is fake is just whining about some bad luck, which can & does happen in an RNG game like this.  In this last 2X event, I pulled 49 Ancient Shards, which should have netted me 8.33 Epics/Legos.  In fact, it did net me 8 Epics & 1 Lego, so I beat the 8.33 slightly.  

To Ozzlee's point, I do not have any of the S-Tier Arena Legos, which is what I really need, and they are hard to come by.  I threw shards at the 10X Valkyrie event and the 10X High Elves event that included Lyssandra, but no luck for me on either.  The odds are just too slim on those 10X events to think you have much of a chance to nab a Lego...

With Ancient Shards, it is still a .5% chance to hit a Lego at all and then you have to hit the right one out of the 92 different Legos currently in the game....so a 10X event means 10/92 or 10.87% chance after you've already hit on a .5% chance.  If I remember my probability correctly, that means you have a .054% (.005 x .1087 = .0005435) chance to nab the boosted Lego.  That means 1 out of every 1840 Ancient Shards will result int eh Boosted Lego.  The 49 I had saved for the last 2X event is probably the most I have ever managed to save up, so 1 out of 1840 is pretty tough odds.           

WileyMan said:

To Ozzlee's point, I do not have any of the S-Tier Arena Legos, which is what I really need, and they are hard to come by.  I threw shards at the 10X Valkyrie event and the 10X High Elves event that included Lyssandra, but no luck for me on either.  The odds are just too slim on those 10X events to think you have much of a chance to nab a Lego...

With Ancient Shards, it is still a .5% chance to hit a Lego at all and then you have to hit the right one out of the 92 different Legos currently in the game....so a 10X event means 10/92 or 10.87% chance after you've already hit on a .5% chance.  If I remember my probability correctly, that means you have a .054% (.005 x .1087 = .0005435) chance to nab the boosted Lego.  That means 1 out of every 1840 Ancient Shards will result int eh Boosted Lego.  The 49 I had saved for the last 2X event is probably the most I have ever managed to save up, so 1 out of 1840 is pretty tough odds.           

It is a tough odds I don't argue that.

you guys are correct. the odds may suck...lol, but they are correct.