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A quick analysis on the cost of geting a new lego to 60

A quick analysis on the cost of geting a new lego to 60

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May 9, 2020, 06:0105/09/20
11/28/19
43

A quick analysis on the cost of geting a new lego to 60

I posted this somewhere else. I will not hide from it:



Plarium is the worst video game company I have ever experienced. The game has some potential as a strategy type game. I mean it's not an rpg at all like they pretend. The real interesting part is trying different masteries, gears, champions, and compositions to get different results. The problem is that every single resource in the game (gems, silver, energy, potions, scrolls, shards, glyphs, books, gear) is monetized and heavily gated.

To give an example, if you got a new champion, a legendary (the best result) you wanted to try out to level and get masteries you need about 7500 energy. This assumes double xp bonus but no other percent increases. You get about 500 free per day. That's 15 days of doing nothing else (which would be very suboptimal) to level this new legendary and get masteries. This doesn't include ascending, gearing, booking them. The ascending him will cost about 4-5000 energy. So you are looking at 25 days for ascending, leveling, and getting scrolls.

However you still haven't booked him. There is no mechanic for that. And you haven't geared him. Books for this champion go for $25, only way to get them is to buy them or hope on non farmable drops like clan boss and weekly arena reward. On average, they take about 11-12 books. Booking is random. So you may not have to get all the books to get the best item. But, thats about $500.

Then there is gearing. If you go to Dragon, there are 9 sets, a chance to get a shard, and if you are not on the hardest stage a chance get a negative value reward (1 brew, brews are basically negative value). The most important piece of gear is speed boots on a speed set. I will ignore the shard/brew chance and say you have 1/9 chance of getting a speed set piece, a 1 in 6 chance of getting a boot, and then you have a 1/7 chance of it being speed. 1 in 378 chances to get a speed set speed boots. But it gets worse. You can still have unusuable other stats, making the boots unusuable, we will ignore this for now. If you do any level below 20 (the hardest level), you are more likely to get a 4* gear (unusuable) than a 6* gear. I will calculate that as being 1/12 for it being speed set, 5* or 6* and not a brew or green/blue shards if you are doing level 19 instead of level 20 dragon. This results in 1 out of 504 attempts.

So the number of runs to have a 50% chance of not getting a speed boot set of speed on:

Level 20: .5 = (1 -1/378)^x --> log(.5) = x * log(1-1/378) --> 261.663 attempts from the 99.735% chance per attempt of not getting speed set speed boots

Level 19: .5 = (1 -1/504)^x --> log(.5) = x * log(1-1/504) --> 349.000 attempts from the 99.802% chance per attempt of not getting speed set speed boots

Each of those attempts cost 16 energy. So if you are doing dragon 20, you are looking at 4176 energy to have a set a rolls where there is only a 50% chance of you not receiving a suitable speed boot (and I am being generous with the definition of suitable). Hopefully from all these dragon runs, you actually got enough gear, but probably not. If you are doing level 19, may god have mercy on your soul.

And even then you still have to do Spider to get accessories.

So ignoring skills (which you can't farm) and ignoring accessories (i don't have good stats for this, but its actually pretty bad odds), if you can farm dragon 20 (most players can't, most end game players can) it costs to level one legendary in energy:

7500 for levels/rank/masteries

4500 for ascending

4176 for basic gear=

16176 energy

Assuming 520 free energy per day that can be spent on this, and that is being generous, that is 31.1 days for an unfinished champion.

But wait, there's more!!!!

Because of how bad the AI is in the game (like longbeard/lanakis charge into a crimson helm block damage on dragon 19 for example) is sooooooo bad, you have no clue if the champion will even work. Or that the composition will work. Or because plarium hides modifiers, numbers, etc, if the gearing you did was right, or if the champion is actually good. You might have just done all this on a champion that actually doesn't add value because of hidden modifier numbers. Reread that.

I ignored how miserable the gearing roll process is. Say you get an epic piece with a good main stat, but only 1 good substat. When you roll this piece, there is a good chance that the bad substats will get rolls. If you roll it to item level 8, 11% chance to get your most desired wish of 2x the good stat, a 44% chance to get only 1 good stat, and a 44% chance to not get any good stats. That means 44% of the time that rare pieces that looks get becomes unusable. You will continue to roll to 12 the piece that only got 1 roll that you liked and have a 67% chance of having another bad result. This means, that most of those epic items aren't very good. This costs tons of silver. Tons!!!!. I ignored this part of the analysis. But again, this is another gate that makes this even worse than the final results indicate.

The answer? Support plarium by spending money?!?!??! Okay.

The top MiniMax deal is $20. It includes 2million silver (we ignored silver for this analysis, so we will ignore it here), double xp bonus (assumed in the analysis, btw, they gate that as 20% of the time, so if you don't buy it, you won't have it all the time), 5x rank 4 chickens (we started with a lego, so no help here, and some other items brews (negative value), shards, clan boss keys, and arena tokens. The only thing that really helps for this analysis, outside of the double xp bonus, is the 10 energy potions.

If you are level 60, thats 130 x 10 = 1300 energy. That takes about 2.5 days off from the 31.1 days. Mind you the shards, silver (minimal), and xp bonus have other value. But really this doesn't help that much. And it is $20. And this is one of the BETTER deals. To put this $20 pack into context, you can go play a game like world of warcraft for $15 per month and there are no other charges to play as much as you want. That game has infinite amount of things you can do with minimal gates, and no purchasing advantages. It is a totally different type of game, but it is just an example of that amount of what you get versus what you get for $20 in Raid. You will burn through the energy of that pack in an hour or maybe 2-3. An hour vs a month.

Other deals you say? At the time of this post, there is a chained offer for $5 for 100 gems, 300k silver, 3 energy potions, and 200 energy. That results into about 5.5 energy potions (100 gems is worth 2.5 energy potions in the store) plus 200 energy, that's 905 energy. So about 1.8 days off. While this pack is better on an energy basis in this example, in terms of overall value it is worse.

The only other real option is to buy gems to use to buy energy. The $ rate for this is much worse than the previous offers.

So in the end, you either have to spend an incredible amount of money to use your new champion (not booked or fully geared) or just wait and wait and wait.


One last thing, if you decide to switch your style of play on your champion from say a speed tuned clan boss comp to a speed run comp, or maybe an unkillable comp, or a new champion comes out you makes you change your arena teams, or you just make a mistake because you misclicked or hidden/unclear game mechanics make a mastery choice poor, you will have to spend 150 gems to fix that champion. Gems are not farmable, there is a constant rate mine (that you buy with gems ironically) that at full power takes 10 days to generate 150 gems. That 150 gems is for 1 mastery reset for 1 champion. I.e. just to try your champions in new places on a regular basis, you have to spend a LOT of money.


All of this is because Plarium is the worst gaming company I have ever experienced.

****This section added and not in original post:

If you really want to fix this, it's not about adding new packs to buy its fixing things like crappy loot tables (remove flat stats from boots/gloves/chest, make shards/brews bonus rolls, etc), minimize some of the grinding (add more scrolls/potions to mino/affinity dungeons), increase gear rolling chances, and give more free/very low cost mastery switch options, lower the absurd cost for champion space increases, 6 million to go from 200 to 210 in the vault? Seriously? 


You won't do this, but that is because Plarium is the worst gaming company I have experienced.


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Comments
May 9, 2020, 06:5105/09/20
06/22/19
800
Is there a much quicker analysis on this? 
May 9, 2020, 06:5905/09/20
11/28/19
43

TDLR


If you are f2p low spender, and use almost all energy to grind your levels/masteries/gear/ascending, it will take about 31 days to accomplish. This ignores accessories, skill books, the fact the champion might not be good, silver cost, inflexibility of changing redoing masteries, and a few other things. Even if you spend money on minimax packs, there is minimal help.


Btw, Joinme, if that is your response, it reinforces Plarium's stance of not doing anything. 



May 9, 2020, 07:0405/09/20
May 9, 2020, 07:05(edited)
05/13/19
2326

Everything you said is true except for the below statement:



"Plarium is the worst video game company I have ever experienced."



Plarium is a company.

Companies in general seek to make quality products to sell to the customers.

This is what the game does on a daily bases.


They get a team of designers to create a New Hero (New Product).

They try to build up hype for the (New Products).

They try to get people to spend money to acquire the (New Products).

The same process happens with everything in the game whether it is New Battle Pass, New Pack Offers, New Gear, etc.


Money drives everything.

The customers are the ones with the "Money"


If the game doesn't make a lot of money, The game is forced to change the prices to try and generate money.

If the game makes tons of money, The game can continue doing what they are doing or raise the prices.


The Company wants to raise the price sky high to make tons of money.

The Customers want to lower the price really low to spend less money

And that is the constant battle which rages on in this game.



If you are unhappy, Don't spend money till they do something which makes you happy.

If you are happy, Than go ahead and spend money if you feel like spending money.

May 9, 2020, 07:1805/09/20
06/22/19
800

I am not Plarium. My response does not tell what Plarium is. 

Base on your TLDR, I can say that this is the first time you play this type of game. If not, you should know that what Plarium is doing is typical on gotcha games. There maybe a much better company, I will not argue with that. 


And if you say that spending money gives minimal help is true, then it is good news for f2p players. 

rcw said:


TDLR


If you are f2p low spender, and use almost all energy to grind your levels/masteries/gear/ascending, it will take about 31 days to accomplish. This ignores accessories, skill books, the fact the champion might not be good, silver cost, inflexibility of changing redoing masteries, and a few other things. Even if you spend money on minimax packs, there is minimal help.


Btw, Joinme, if that is your response, it reinforces Plarium's stance of not doing anything. 





May 9, 2020, 07:1805/09/20
11/28/19
43

Actually the statement, "Plarium is the worst video game company I have ever experienced."


Is 100% true. Notice I am talking about my experience and my opinion. It is 100% true that it is my opinion that Plarium is the worst video game I have experienced. This does NOT make it a fact that Plarium is the worst video game company. I qualified it as my opinion (implicitly) and experience (explicitly).


Your statements about companies existing to make money are true. Not going to argue that. However, their model is more extreme, by a wide margin, than any other company that I have experience, and thus, I provided my reasoning on my opinion on why it is the worst I have experienced.



May 9, 2020, 07:2205/09/20
11/28/19
43

JoinME said:


I am not Plarium. My response does not tell what Plarium is. 

Base on your TLDR, I can say that this is the first time you play this type of game. If not, you should know that what Plarium is doing is typical on gotcha games. There maybe a much better company, I will not argue with that. 


And if you say that spending money gives minimal help is true, then it is good news for f2p players. 

rcw said:


TDLR


If you are f2p low spender, and use almost all energy to grind your levels/masteries/gear/ascending, it will take about 31 days to accomplish. This ignores accessories, skill books, the fact the champion might not be good, silver cost, inflexibility of changing redoing masteries, and a few other things. Even if you spend money on minimax packs, there is minimal help.


Btw, Joinme, if that is your response, it reinforces Plarium's stance of not doing anything. 






Never said you were plarium. My last statement was meant to imply that if players don't care, then there is no reason for Plarium to care.


As for other gacha games, there are numerous examples of these types of games that are much better for low spenders. The point is that extremeness of how they do it.


Although, irrelevant, I would not be considered to be a low spender. I
May 9, 2020, 08:3805/09/20
May 9, 2020, 08:56(edited)
08/26/19
641

Stay long enough around and you will see that no matter how hard player base complains (regular player base here or content creators, rageing or giveing constructive criticism) they do not care. And I mean they don't care at all. To the "zero f@ck given" point. 

At this stage you will be presented with two choices - take it or leave. Stay in game, play how it is and don't put any hopes for changes. If there's any - then good. Or just uninstall it and move to another game. 

Since your quick analys didn't meant to be any sort of question, my post isn't meant to be answer either. Take it as "quick explanation". 


*edit - the last night game was updated and presented the news of that new tournament addition. The last part of the pach note finished with something like: "don't hesitate to go to our forum and tell us what you think" That was the hardest and genuine "lol" I had in a long time. The quality of that sarcasum is top noch! 

May 9, 2020, 08:5605/09/20
11/28/19
43

Daering, I have been around a while. Got the Lordly Legionary guy on two of my accounts, I think I started in October. 


I agree, they won't care, until it hurts their bottomline. I am skeptical, but I am hoping the current negativity of the more successful streamers helps positively affect the game.


I didn't really come here hoping for a debate. I just posted that lengthy thought in another place and felt that I wouldn't hide from it.
May 9, 2020, 09:1205/09/20
May 9, 2020, 09:15(edited)
08/26/19
641

There was some majior backlash around Dracogate, there was some sort of content creators... hm, how to put it in English.. revolt by not paying for some time and constant complains everywhere - here, Discord, YouTube.


Their Google Play rating droped over time, their big content creators criticisized them on daily basis for how long, half an year? and nothing worked. With that large player base there is no way they can see any considerable drop in sales. 

The sad part is - it will take so little efford from them to make Raid the best game out there. And still they are not willing to do it. 

That's why at this point I buried all hopes and enjoy the game as it is and that makes me feel better than when i do cared. And the fact that I didn't spend single peny makes me feel even better. 

May 9, 2020, 09:4005/09/20
04/14/20
1343

Obviously we can all agree that this game has abnormally high prices on everything. It is pretty crazy how little you usually get for e.g. 50 EUR/USD, knowing that for the same price you could buy an entire newly released computer game, or several months of subscription to an MMORPG. And even the better deals, such as the Battle Pass, are still more expensive than in other games of this kind. 


That being said, your analysis on developing a new legendary is seriously exaggerated. 

Most importantly, you can find out quite quickly how useful this champion is going to be; obviously you can start by looking him up at one of the champion analysis websites such as Ayumilove's, or check out what youtube creators have to say about him. And you can test him for yourself in something lower level, even with limited leveling and mediocre gear, to see how the AI functions and how hard the various abilities hit. So if it's a poor legendary, you only have yourself to blame if you fully develop him before realizing that. 

Then if you do want to fully develop him, most of the XP grind is for the last 30 or so levels at six stars. But by that time, the champion should be more than good enough to already use in minotaur 15, in the potion keeps and potentially in your dungeons. So the energy cost of the masteries, ascension and to some extent gear overlaps with the leveling energy cost. And of course, along the way you will get plenty of XP brews, which will also cut down significantly on the amount of XP farming you need to do. 


May 9, 2020, 10:2605/09/20
May 9, 2020, 10:36(edited)
11/28/19
43

To L9753


On content creators/lists, I'll just give one example of how that can be misleading: Ayumilove (your pick) has Baron as an A tier champion, with a 5* clan boss rating, Hell Hades has Baron as the 79th best legendary making him a D tier rating I guess and a 2 star clan boss rating, chosen has him with 109th overall rating (including all characters) and a 5 out of 10 on clan boss, so like 2.5. When I first started playing this game I was so excited that I got frostbringer because a few sites including ayumilove had her as a top champion. She is not a top champion and Ayumilove now has a C rating on her. She hasn't been nerfed, she just wasn't that good. Point is, it took me about 30 seconds to find wildly different views on an legendary champion.


i am actually not overstating the cost on getting the legendary to 60 and booked. First you have to get the 5 rank 5 characters to get the lego to rank 6, which is 25 rank 4 (5 to 40 and 20 rank 4 level 1 to ascend) and the thirties, etc. I have done the calculations, and the majority of the xp is spent on leveling the "chickens." As you mentioned Ayumilove, go look at how much energy it costs to do this. Their calculations assume you 0 loss from a carry champion. Remember, we need 5 rank 40 characters plus another 20 rank 4 level 1 characters, that means we need 100 rank 3 charaters (75 level 1 and 25 level 30). You have to level the other toons. That is where the energy is spent.


Leveling characters with XP brews is a terrible methodology. It costs 7000 for 18,750 xp for using the same affinity brew. Your point would be valid, only if the brews were free. It is roughly 3 mill xp to get to 60 from rank 5 level 1. That is over 1 million silver and over 150 brews. That's assuming you have that many. Doing an analysis of Brutal 12-3, I have found about 70-72% of the times you get an item instead of shard/brew/champion and that item on average is worth 8,400 and 10,550 for about 19,000. That is roughly 580 runs, or 4,640 energy to FUND the use of those brews assuming 100% drop rate of items. You can use ayumilove to see the cost of the brews it would be 1,113,200 silver from brews for doing all rank 5 and 6 to max level:

https://ayumilove.net/raid-shadow-legends-champion-leveling-guide/


May 9, 2020, 10:5505/09/20
04/14/20
1343

Yeah, you're not exactly disproving my points as you seem to think you are... 


Clearly you are very familiar with the various tier lists / champion analyses out there, so you are sure to know beforehand if the champion is unanimously considered great, or unanimously considered poor, or if they're more debatable like your example. Of course, the value of the champion depends also on what other champions you already have and which role you are considering to use them for, so in the end you have to make the decision yourself, but most of the information required you could already get from those websites / videos. 


I certainly haven't bothered to check your exact energy calculations, but I saw you adding up the energy cost for each thing separately, when in reality some of it would overlap if you use your partially leveled champion to farm the ascension potions / masteries / gear. If you did already take that into account, okay, then forget I said anything. 


And obviously I wasn't suggesting you should level champions purely with XP brews. Just that since you'll get a bunch of them anyway, might as well use them. Sure, that costs you silver, whereas leveling up by farming will yield extra silver, so if your most scarce resource is silver then indeed don't use brews. But if your most scarce resource is energy, as it is for most people, then using whatever XP brews you get will save you a certain number of runs and hence a bunch of energy. 
May 9, 2020, 11:1405/09/20
May 9, 2020, 11:16(edited)
11/28/19
43

L9753


I have not disproved my points about the lists. I proved that these lists can be very different. You have to remember you don't control which legendaries you get. My main accounts last legendaries are Rhazin (fused), Foli, Elder Skarg, and Brystophus. Two of them have universal opinions, Rhazin is very good and Bystophus is very bad. But what about Foli and Elder Skarg? What about the rest of my roster? Do I have another 4 hit a1 like Foli does? If I don't does that make him more viable? Leech seems good, do I have a leech character other than him? All of these things means that lists in general are only helpful, not definitive.


I don't want this next thing to sound as harsh as it might seem, but this was your quote "That being said, your analysis on developing a new legendary is seriously exaggerated."  and it is not. It was an offhand remark that was stated as fact.


Btw The overlap is minimal on the potions run, because the xp is so minimal, and you can what have 2-3 chickens. It really depends on the quality of the account. There are people that need 1 toon to clear a dungeon so can use 4 chickens there are others that need all 5, and every variance in between. And it's slooooow doing that. I run most of those dungeons with 2-3 chickens and its like 1.5k on a non double xp.


As for the brews, only deep spenders would blow through brews like that and didn't think you meant that. I just wanted to point out that I was using highly efficient resource numbers, the silver cost was left out, but if you do brews (i call them negative value, because the energy spent to over the cost of silver to use 1 brew generates more xp than the brew does if the enerygy was spent on the campaign) you have to do silver as well. Leveling and gearing toons costs silver. 

May 9, 2020, 12:1205/09/20
08/26/19
641

I don't quote understand how those differences of certain sites or content creators tier list relates to the opinion of Raid being poorly managed, which was the original idea of that thread. 


May 9, 2020, 13:5105/09/20
09/02/19
103

i agree with your analysis and disagree with what plarium is doing with his otherwise fun game. i personally don't understand why everyone is still so nice to plarium when talking about the absolute horseshit they do in this game. i am mostly indifferent to plarium in general, but it angers me to see the bullshit prices on those garbage offers every time i go into the game or view the store.

the main reason it angers me is because we know that plarium knows that we know that they know it is complete bullshit. they are selling 2k gems in the store for $70, but at the same time the daily gem pack that has 2k gems in it is like $12. they know they are cheating us and they don't care. since there are a few millionaires constantly buying it, they don't care about 99% of their playerbase. the actual players of this game.

i don't care if they want to take advantage of the fact that some people want to spend a lot of money in this game. the problem is that there aren't any decent options for free to play players or low spenders, in a free to play game. the insignificant pieces of shit that are festering in the store for $12 aren't decent options. those options make it slightly more bearable.

if it wasn't for covid19 i wouldn't have even gotten back on this game. though one of the reasons i was able to come back is because i am interested in seeing how some of their whales and content creators will turn on the game over time and leave it. it was very interesting to see a couple of people have their accounts completely crunched.

i believe that most free to play or low spenders will become massively bored in the game after obtaining arbiter, because there just isn't anything else to do after that. i myself am coming very close to obtaining arbiter.
i know someone in my clan who has had the misfortune of pulling arbiter from a shard when he was around lvl 40. for him it was fun at first to crush arena teams, but he has been in the low lvl 50s since last year. he doesn't seem to give much craps about playing at all. i think if our clan was on UNM CB and he reached stage 20 in all dungeons he would stop playing completely. it's predictable, but still fairly interesting to me.

well that's my rant, i suggest you copy your analysis somewhere just in case this thread gets deleted without warning.
May 9, 2020, 14:1405/09/20
May 9, 2020, 14:15(edited)
08/26/19
641
It will not be deleted, there will be responce from mod, who will thank you for your feedback/suggestion and that's all. After couple of days it will be burried under pile of that asian spam sh#t and after week or so new one will pops up. Thrust me. 
May 9, 2020, 18:4905/09/20
04/14/20
1343

rcw said:


L9753


I have not disproved my points about the lists. I proved that these lists can be very different. You have to remember you don't control which legendaries you get. My main accounts last legendaries are Rhazin (fused), Foli, Elder Skarg, and Brystophus. Two of them have universal opinions, Rhazin is very good and Bystophus is very bad. But what about Foli and Elder Skarg? What about the rest of my roster? Do I have another 4 hit a1 like Foli does? If I don't does that make him more viable? Leech seems good, do I have a leech character other than him? All of these things means that lists in general are only helpful, not definitive.

My original point was referring to your suggestion that after all the extreme effort required in fully upgrading a champion, you might discover only at that point that that champion sucks. I think our discussion since then has confirmed that with some research at the time you pull him, you can figure out to a large extent how useful a champion is for your specific account, and how much effort and resources he'd be worth. If you've done that research, there might be some minor difference between your expectations and the reality when the champion is fully upgraded, but not the huge disappointment you described. I certainly didn't mean that you should blindly follow any particular list. 


Regarding the other points, as I mentioned I haven't done the math and I don't plan to. Perhaps you weren't exaggerating as much as I thought. Not going to argue it further in any case.