I'm at 7 atm and still nothing :p

Statistics are saying that you have 120% chance to drop a legendary with that.

quent155 said:

I'm at 7 atm and still nothing :p

Statistics are saying that you have 120% chance to drop a legendary with that.

At least you know that you can spend 30-50€ for a Yellow shard so your increase your chances 

why would players spend any penny on this game if there's no expectation on a acccount?

will NEVER spend anything on this game.

With a 12% chance of pulling a legendary on every shard during the 2x event, that means you have a 41% chance of not pulling any legendaries with 7 shards, or a 32% chance of not getting any with 9 shards. Bad luck, yes, but not super unlikely to happen. 

Hello, i used to think like this. Spend a lot of money in the beginning of playing, got no legos. stopped spending lowered expectations. Got real mad wasn't getting anything. slowly but surely golden summons started to appear. Just stick with it.

Now i have roughly 14 legendaries and haven't spent since 2019. Only time you get salty is when you pull a summon and they aren't good, but most units have there niche and units that are under powered they will buff eventually. Dracomorph used to be one of the worst legendaries and now he is CB killer.

I'm not a pro in stats to be honest but from my understanding you have 12/100 chances to get a legendary with one shard.

Since results of the first shard do not impact chances from the second one you still have 12/100 by addition.

So for 2 shards you have 12/100 + 12/100 = 24/100

With 10 shards you have 120/100. So statistacally you have 120% chance to get a legendary (even if it's not guarentee). It's like tossing a coin, you have 1/2 to get face. So after 2 launches you should have a face and sometime you need 10 toss to have a single one :p Just need a large set to get value that are in accord with the stats.

I'm not sure how you did the stats to get 41% of not pulling after 7 btw :o

You need to use multiplication, not addition. 

The easy way to calculate is based on the 88% chance that you pull an epic rather than a legendary. Then on the second pull, again a 88% chance. With two shards, the chance that you pull two epics in a row is 88 percent * 88 percent = 77.44 percent (while there is a 12%*12% = 1.44% chance of two legendaries, an 88%*12% = 10.56% chance of epic then legendary, and the same 10.56% of legendary then epic). 

So for 7 shards, the chance to pull 7 epics in a row and no legendaries is 88%^7  (88% * 88% * 88% * 88% * 88% * 88% * 88%), which is just below 41%. It's only at 24 shards that the chance to pull only epics and zero legendaries drops below 5%. 

And of course, the good legendaries are way better than epics, but some of them not so much. Even if you do pull a legendary, there's a significant chance that it's a weak one and that you'd rather have had a top rated epic (e.g. I got Tayrel from a sacred shard - not a legendary, but still very happy with that!). 

Yeah that's just Palarium saying, "hello!"  I think i was on 7 b4 my 1st & who was is....Mr Meseeks(Blystophus), then i think Teela Gormaine & War Mother, before i finally got what is still my best Lego in Nethril.  I still have never gotten 1 of the top tier Legos.  Just hope for great epics.  Btw the way, my first pull today. Ripper!!!   

4+ months and countless shards, and I finally get a legendary.... of course it is one of the worst I think, as I've never seen or heard anything about him

Grohak the Bloodied?

Rest were epics not worth mentioning. My drought continues. I now have grohak, wurlim, and soon the new fusion. 27 legendary tomes collecting dust.

As L9753 covered above, you cannot add the percentages together for pulling multiple shards.  Multiplying the odds is correct, but even that is only statistics, and reality often differs from statistics in smaller sample sizes.  With the double rates, every Sacred Shard has a 12% chance of pulling a Legendary and an 88% chance of pulling an Epic.  Those are the odds each and every time.  With a largest enough sample size, every 100 Shards will deliver 12 Legendariies.  However, as every gambler knows, when you are on the wrong side of luck, you could pull 100 shards and get half of that, or even less.

I have been playing for a little more than 3 months.  I have not paid for a single Sacred Shard, but i have bought some Ancient Shard packs during the Double Ancient Events.  I have never pulled a Legendary during a Double Ancient Event, but I actually have 4 Legendaries:  Wurlim from the Battle Pass, and the following 3 from Ancient Shards @ regular odds:  Big Un, Queen Eva & Rae.  Big Un was my first Legendary and I pulled him from an Ancient when there were no events running; Queen Eva I got from an Ancient during the 10X Queen Eva Event; I pulled Rae while trying to get Jareg during the 10X Jareg event.  I didn't get Jareg, but I am certainly not complaining about pulling Rae.

I don't have any Sacred Shards to pull for this event because I used all 4 that I had been saving trying to get Tayrel in the 10X High Elves event last week.  Tayrel is strong enough that I was willing to risk it.  As luck would have it, I got four Epics, none of them Tayrel.  Two of the Epics I got are weak, but I also got Thenasil and Skullcrusher, both of whom are better than many Legendaries!  

4+ months and countless shards, and I finally get a legendary.... of course it is one of the worst I think, as I've never seen or heard anything about him

Grohak the Bloodied?

Rest were epics not worth mentioning. My drought continues. I now have grohak, wurlim, and soon the new fusion. 27 legendary tomes collecting dust.

quent155 said:

Statistics are saying that you have 120% chance to drop a legendary with that.

WileyMan said:

Trips said:

4+ months and countless shards, and I finally get a legendary.... of course it is one of the worst I think, as I've never seen or heard anything about him

Grohak the Bloodied?

Rest were epics not worth mentioning. My drought continues. I now have grohak, wurlim, and soon the new fusion. 27 legendary tomes collecting dust.

@Trips:  In the two Tier Lists that I refer to regularly, Grohak is B Tier on both of them.  Wurlim is also B Tier, and he rocks the Arena.  B Tier Legendary Champions are certainly worth building and using.  

I'm Gold4 pretty solid in Arena so wurlim doesn't help me.  I don't think wurlim is used by any teams that beat me. 

I'm at 7 atm and still nothing :p

Statistics are saying that you have 120% chance to drop a legendary with that.

At least you know that you can spend 30-50€ for a Yellow shard so your increase your chances 

@Trips:  Maybe he doesn't.  I don't use my Wurlim either, except for Faction Wars.  Sounds like you are proof to the OP and others that they don't need Legendaries to be end-game viable. Strong teams of Epics & Rares can get you there too!

Ugh, shows how bad education is.

For 7 legendary shards, the probability of getting at least 1 legendary = 1 - probability of no legendaries = 1 - (1-0.12)^7 = 59%  -- entirely possible is the answer

The probability of getting precisely 1 legendary is:  0.12 * (1-0.12)^6 * 7 permutation possibilities = 39%