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Is the possibility of having a particular champion really random?

Is the possibility of having a particular champion really random?

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Mar 3, 2020, 17:3803/03/20
02/02/20
4

Is the possibility of having a particular champion really random?

I only need Hatchet Slinger to complete the fusion for Rotos. I have opened more than 130 shards, and have not found it. For example, I found all the rare dwarf champions... except Hatchet Slinger.  

I read on the forum of a user, Nebotmichael, who was missing Fleshmonger and Mystic, he opened 80 shards and did not find them. I didn't need them for the fusion ... but I found them both: more than one! 

Making a probability calculation: I had about 68% chance of finding Hatchet Slinger, nebotmichael had about 76% change to find at least one of the two champions, Fleshmonger or Mystic. The probability that neither he and I found any of the samples we needed was around 8%. Now... anything can happen when it comes to probability... but it's a little strange. 

At this point it seems strange to me that it is a pure coincidence… Could it be that something is not working? 


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Mar 3, 2020, 18:1203/03/20
02/21/20
2

You are mistaking "random" with "evenly distributed probabilities."


They could very well give different heroes (of the same rarity) different drop rates, and I would not be surprised if that is the case.  That is, those fusion heroes could have lower drop rates than the other (more common) heroes of that rarity.


They could also change drop rates for certain players and/or conditions - e.g., make it harder to pull whatever is the last character you need for fusion - but I would be disappointed and surprised if they went that far. 

Mar 3, 2020, 19:3703/03/20
Mar 3, 2020, 19:39(edited)
02/02/20
4

Bruce said:


They could also change drop rates for certain players and/or conditions - e.g., make it harder to pull whatever is the last character you need for fusion - but I would be disappointed and surprised if they went that far. 

If so, it must be said. So players don't spend real money on false hopes.


I will keep you updated, because I'm really curious to see when I find this champion after fusion.

Mar 4, 2020, 04:2903/04/20
02/13/19
1564

Bruce said:


You are mistaking "random" with "evenly distributed probabilities."


They could very well give different heroes (of the same rarity) different drop rates, and I would not be surprised if that is the case.  That is, those fusion heroes could have lower drop rates than the other (more common) heroes of that rarity.


They could also change drop rates for certain players and/or conditions - e.g., make it harder to pull whatever is the last character you need for fusion - but I would be disappointed and surprised if they went that far. 

This is not true, champions have the same drop rate and they don't change it without announcement.