Increased chance Ancient Shard Opening Summon Rates. 01-30-2020

Kristina

Jan 30, 2020, 18:5801/30/20

11/20/19

Increased chance Ancient Shard Opening Summon Rates. 01-30-2020

Ancient Shard Opening increased rates:

I would not suggest purchases for this event, I did purchase and was given less the percent chance advertised.

*This is just an example of my numbers times the percents advertised to show I feel the event is not worth chasing.*

-For the amount I purchased: 33 ancients, according to the chances- I should have recieved:5.28 epic hero’s s, (33x16%)

and legendary (33 shards x 1%= 0.33 chance). I didn’t expect to receive a legendary just hoped for a highly useable epic.

- What I received was : 4 epic hero’s. Then 29 rares.

-with 3 out of those 4 were COPIES of my current inventory epics. (Non desirable copies)

I have opened shards on non increased rates and gotten much better drops. I have pulled many legos and epics back to back to back before. 29 rares is not what someone spend their money for. Just expect to be underwhelmed.

AND This was my NEW EPIC!

Grim skin.... is how I feel after playing this game, lol.

What an epic waste of space in my roster! A1 decreases speed, A2 provoke chance, A3 AOE with 80% chance to remove 1 buff.

I see many other players with the Ogyrn Steel Crusher, why not make that one more available, I do not see why make the bad hero’s even be an option anymore. You tested the game, made better hero’s (the dwarf affinity) so why not continue to improve by lessening your “old hero’s” that will be the now useless hero’s in for exchange, and then discontinued from the game entirely. The shards are all ready an extremely valuable resource. Making any of the pulls that are an epic be a unusable hero is very misleading. I love the game but I don’t see any reason to chase this event. Good luck to you all!

Comments

Valdys

Jan 30, 2020, 23:1801/30/20

Feb 2, 2020, 02:23(edited)

02/13/19

1564

Hi,

Drop rate doesn't work like you think, it's on a single shard, not on 30/40/50/60.

Angwil

Jan 31, 2020, 02:2001/31/20

06/20/19

2181

Double 0% is 0%. Double 50% is 100%. Double 8% is 16%. And double 0.5% is 1%.

I never open shards unless a double event. Not b/c I expect to get a legendary, but b/c my chances are double. i NEVER buy shards, never worth it. Understand the odds my friend!

Kristina

Jan 31, 2020, 11:5401/31/20

11/20/19

I posted the percents, I was using the math for the number of shards I opened times the percentages. But yes I understand it’s only per one and not on a whole of my entire open amount. I was just giving the example and explaining I felt the odds were not in my favor.

schoko

Jan 31, 2020, 12:3601/31/20

01/09/20

You can compute chances of not getting epic or legendary champions.

I had 8 blue shards. Chances not getting an epic or legendary champion at double event is approx. 22,5%. I got only rare champs.

My last 200 green shards were only commons and uncommons. Chances for this are 4%.

I really like this game, but i would never ever pay for it.

Angwil

Feb 1, 2020, 00:5502/01/20

Feb 1, 2020, 01:01(edited)

06/20/19

2181

schoko said:

You can compute chances of not getting epic or legendary champions.

I had 8 blue shards. Chances not getting an epic or legendary champion at double event is approx. 22,5%. I got only rare champs.
My last 200 green shards were only commons and uncommons. Chances for this are 4%.

I really like this game, but i would never ever pay for it.

How do you figure? Mind showing us your calculations?

Trips

Feb 1, 2020, 23:0602/01/20

12/19/19

6262

I only had 10 blue saved, no legendary but pulled 3 epic so I guess that's pretty good. I got grizzled jarl, seeker, and hordin. Any thoughts on any of these?

Angwil

Feb 2, 2020, 00:3402/02/20

06/20/19

2181

Trips said:

I only had 10 blue saved, no legendary but pulled 3 epic so I guess that's pretty good. I got grizzled jarl, seeker, and hordin. Any thoughts on any of these?

I have seeker but have not used him. I see him in a lot of teams and my clan mates use him hear and there. No exp with the others.

Angwil

Feb 2, 2020, 00:5302/02/20

Feb 2, 2020, 00:54(edited)

06/20/19

2181

Angwil said:

schoko said:

You can compute chances of not getting epic or legendary champions.

I had 8 blue shards. Chances not getting an epic or legendary champion at double event is approx. 22,5%. I got only rare champs.
My last 200 green shards were only commons and uncommons. Chances for this are 4%.

I really like this game, but i would never ever pay for it.

How do you figure? Mind showing us your calculations?

OK, then I'll show you my calculations.

The probability of getting at least one rare (p) from a certain number (n) green shards is = 1 - (1 - p)^n

where p = the probability of getting a rare from a single green shards and n = the number of green shards opened.

So for 200 green shards, 1 - (1 - 0.014)^ 200 = 0.940

Now the chances of NOT getting at least one rare from opening 200 greens is the inverse of this, or = 1 - .940 which is 0.0596 which is approximately 6%.

conclusion; your maths are 50% off.

Kristina

Feb 7, 2020, 17:3302/07/20

11/20/19

Angwil said:

Angwil said:

schoko said:

You can compute chances of not getting epic or legendary champions.

I had 8 blue shards. Chances not getting an epic or legendary champion at double event is approx. 22,5%. I got only rare champs.
My last 200 green shards were only commons and uncommons. Chances for this are 4%.

I really like this game, but i would never ever pay for it.

How do you figure? Mind showing us your calculations?
OK, then I'll show you my calculations.
The probability of getting at least one rare (p) from a certain number (n) green shards is = 1 - (1 - p)^n
where p = the probability of getting a rare from a single green shards and n = the number of green shards opened.
So for 200 green shards, 1 - (1 - 0.014)^ 200 = 0.940

Now the chances of NOT getting at least one rare from opening 200 greens is the inverse of this, or = 1 - .940 which is 0.0596 which is approximately 6%.

conclusion; your maths are 50% off.

Thank you for doing some math, and showing odds. I was talking about ancient shards with the increased rates originally. can you please do the math to percent chance of getting and epic and legendary when opening 50 ancients? I don’t know who schoko is with the above comment. I just hit reply.

I am the original poster from the top. I would like to know the percents of obtaining an epic and percents of obtaining a legendary from 50 ancients. While there are 2x rates. Percents are shown in my original post.

summer-ebay

Feb 7, 2020, 22:1302/07/20

09/15/19

Guys, its a computer simulated Random Number Generator.

It looks like one that is very very badly programmed and gets stuck in some nasty streaks.

That's why you can spend 3-4 mil trying to upgrade an artifact from 13 to 14 and then pop 14, 15 & 16 right in a row.

In order to get anything remotely resembling the %'s listed you need to look at runs of thousands, not 10 shards.

Double % is a joke. If your 10-20 tries hit in the middle of a low streak you get nothing. If it hits in the middle of a high streak, everyone in your clan hates you :-)

Angwil

Feb 8, 2020, 02:0602/08/20

Feb 8, 2020, 02:07(edited)

06/20/19

2181

No problem friend,

The probability of getting at least one epic from 50 ancient shards is

1-(1-0.16)^50 = .99983633 or practically guaranteed. One in 10,000 people who open 50 ancients during a double event will not get an epic champ.

The probability of getting at least one legendary from 50 ancient shards is

1-(1-0.01)^50 = 0.39499393, meaning about 4 in 10 people who open 50 ancient shards will get at least one legendary, and about 6 in 10 will not

Kristina said:

Angwil said:

Angwil said:

schoko said:

You can compute chances of not getting epic or legendary champions.

I had 8 blue shards. Chances not getting an epic or legendary champion at double event is approx. 22,5%. I got only rare champs.
My last 200 green shards were only commons and uncommons. Chances for this are 4%.

I really like this game, but i would never ever pay for it.

How do you figure? Mind showing us your calculations?
OK, then I'll show you my calculations.
The probability of getting at least one rare (p) from a certain number (n) green shards is = 1 - (1 - p)^n
where p = the probability of getting a rare from a single green shards and n = the number of green shards opened.
So for 200 green shards, 1 - (1 - 0.014)^ 200 = 0.940

Now the chances of NOT getting at least one rare from opening 200 greens is the inverse of this, or = 1 - .940 which is 0.0596 which is approximately 6%.

conclusion; your maths are 50% off.

Thank you for doing some math, and showing odds. I was talking about ancient shards with the increased rates originally. can you please do the math to percent chance of getting and epic and legendary when opening 50 ancients? I don’t know who schoko is with the above comment. I just hit reply.

I am the original poster from the top. I would like to know the percents of obtaining an epic and percents of obtaining a legendary from 50 ancients. While there are 2x rates. Percents are shown in my original post.

Angwil

Feb 8, 2020, 02:0902/08/20

06/20/19

2181

summerebay said:

Double % is a joke. If your 10-20 tries hit in the middle of a low streak you get nothing. If it hits in the middle of a high streak, everyone in your clan hates you :-)

I have not found that to be the case. Everything else you said I agree with.

Hank McKannon

Feb 8, 2020, 02:1602/08/20

02/01/20

I open 3 ancient shards: no epics... but i got Athel which was way cooler than a crappy Epic, heard there a bunch of those.

floriangrabis

Feb 10, 2020, 23:5802/10/20

10/11/19

When is the next double pull event?

sirrobinz123

Apr 12, 2020, 18:1704/12/20

02/08/20

Angwil said:

No problem friend,

The probability of getting at least one epic from 50 ancient shards is

1-(1-0.16)^50 = .99983633 or practically guaranteed. One in 10,000 people who open 50 ancients during a double event will not get an epic champ.

The probability of getting at least one legendary from 50 ancient shards is

1-(1-0.01)^50 = 0.39499393, meaning about 4 in 10 people who open 50 ancient shards will get at least one legendary, and about 6 in 10 will not

Kristina said:

Angwil said:

Angwil said:

schoko said:

You can compute chances of not getting epic or legendary champions.

I had 8 blue shards. Chances not getting an epic or legendary champion at double event is approx. 22,5%. I got only rare champs.
My last 200 green shards were only commons and uncommons. Chances for this are 4%.

I really like this game, but i would never ever pay for it.

How do you figure? Mind showing us your calculations?
OK, then I'll show you my calculations.
The probability of getting at least one rare (p) from a certain number (n) green shards is = 1 - (1 - p)^n
where p = the probability of getting a rare from a single green shards and n = the number of green shards opened.
So for 200 green shards, 1 - (1 - 0.014)^ 200 = 0.940

Now the chances of NOT getting at least one rare from opening 200 greens is the inverse of this, or = 1 - .940 which is 0.0596 which is approximately 6%.

conclusion; your maths are 50% off.

Thank you for doing some math, and showing odds. I was talking about ancient shards with the increased rates originally. can you please do the math to percent chance of getting and epic and legendary when opening 50 ancients? I don’t know who schoko is with the above comment. I just hit reply.

I am the original poster from the top. I would like to know the percents of obtaining an epic and percents of obtaining a legendary from 50 ancients. While there are 2x rates. Percents are shown in my original post.

I have now opened about 400 Ancient shards without getting a single leg. Many epics and many of same type epic. What are the odds of not getting a single Leg with 400 ancient during double events? It is really starting to piss me off. It cannot just be RNG!