Confirmation bias.

The game seems to be following a typical path of leading players into key features so that they know how to use them - seems perfectly normal and fine to me. And if you don't have what it takes to complete a particular stage, you just hold off on it - I've reached a section that wants me to evolve another chmpaion to 5*, but I don't want to use resources on that yet until after the Christmas fusion - no big deal.

However, by your description of farming I'm tempted to think there may be a problem with your team set up - 2500 energy to farm 5 middle tier potions suggests to me you are farming on an extremely low dungeon level that is not efficient for this. I'm only 3 weeks in and farming the level 8 potion dungeons which is working fine for me, though is obviously slower than established players.

Also note to watch out for potion drops as rewards in the Challenges, Event, Tournaments, and CvC rewards.

The drop rates are always the same 

For champions from campaign it is very low, there isn't a chart for it but these are the figures given.

(Normal): 67% Artifact, 25% Mystery Shard, 1% Rare Champion, 7% Uncommon/Common Champion

(Hard): 70% Artifact, 22% Mystery Shard, 1.5% Rare Champion, 6.5% Uncommon/Common Champion

(Brutal): 72% Artifact, 20% Mystery Shard, 2% Rare Champion, 6% Uncommon/Common Champion

(Nightmare): 87% Artifact, 3% Rare Champion, 10% Uncommon/Common Champion

As for potions.

i

The focus is always on lesser potions. The drop rate for lesser is always higher than greater or superior potions except for level 20 where they don't exist.

The game knows that you can always use the mixer to level them up.

I know it doesn't help for the mission, but that's the way it is.

Aditionally, don't try and rush through the missions, they are disigned to do as you progress through the game.

Now it is getting potions and fusing a champion etc. that you can do but later there will be missions that will take ages to get done.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, this game is a marathon not a sprint, be patient.

I agree with you and want you to know you are not alone. I just posted about how I as a disabled veteran living on a fixed income cannot afford their high prices on their deals. Understanding that everyone needs to make a profit I think their prices are still out of control.

Yesterday I tried to upgrade a piece of equipment to fulfill a requirement of upgrading a piece to level 16.  I spent about 1 million silver going from 13-16 which is ridiculou.  This game is enjoyable but way to expensive and they have no attention to make it cheape, but more expensiv.e.  

The problem is not that I don't have what it takes to do the quest.   The problem is the RNG is not random.   It simply refuses to give me the thing I have a quest for.

I just did a test to see how many middle tier potions i got from using one refill on auto.   I got 14.  When I had a quest to get middle tier potions I am sure I spent close to 1000 energy to get 5.   I had to work on it for more than one day.

Yeah I have been bitten by the artifact upgrade quests a few times too.   I think I spent about 1 million to finish the quest to upgrade to 12.    I remember being angry and posting about it to global.  I got bitten by the upgrade to 8 quest too.

Thanks, I think you proved my point.   

I think I was probably doing the quest at level 15 to try to save energy.   At that stage the chance of drop is about 24% according to your chart. (it is a little to too small for me to see exactly).   With 1000 energy spent that amounts to about 83 trials.   I should have succeeded about 25 times.  I succeeded twice.   The odds I would only succeed twice out of 83 trials would be astronomical.

QED   

You know that you can brew potions of a higher tier from the lesser ones in the tavern?

I think he's talking about missions where you have to get certain potions. Mixing them won't count, iirc.

It always makes me laugh when people mix up the difference between independant event probability and predicted outcome.

If you were running level 15 then the probabilities are:

XP brew 6.65%

Mystery shard  2.85%

Ancient shard 0.5%

lesser potion (either 7, 8 or 9 of them) 55%

greater potion (either 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5) 23%

Superior potion (either 1, 2 or 3)  12%

That doesn't mean that if you run the potion keep 100 times you will end up with 7 brews, 3 mystery shards, 1 ancient shard, 55 amounts of lesser potions, 23 amounts of greater potions and 12 amounts of superior potions.

Each run is dealt with individually, and the highest probability is for lesser potions, so you are more likely than not to get them on each run.

If you get an amount of greater potions or something other than lesser ones then you have beaten the odd for that one run.

It is highly possible that you could run the keep 10 thousand times and only end up with lesser potions.

But then again the computer algorithms aren't capable of generating true random numbers, so the oddities do occur.

This game is based on gambling odds.  You can visit a casino and win/loss on any given day.  Its the same with this game.  

Everything in this comment is accurate and, hopefully, useful.

That being said, please keep the negative comments to yourself.  I don't think it's cool to degrade someone for a lack of understanding of advanced probabilities and statistics.  There's no need to try to make someone feel bad for not understanding something you do understand.